5 big thoughts on Joe Biden -- and where we go now

It's Kamala's to lose.

News comes at weird times.

I actually left my computer in our hotel at Cooperstown so that I wouldn’t be distracted. I figured there was no way Joe Biden would end his 2024 candidacy on a Sunday afternoon.

WHOOPS.

I was just starting to tour the National Baseball of Fame when a friend tapped me on the shoulder and showed me a news alert.

I thought about leaving the museum and heading back to write something immediately but decided against it. I wanted to spend time with the family — and knew the news would still be here.

The good thing about that decision — beyond the obvious benefit of hanging out with my family! — is that I got some time to just reflect on Biden, his political career and his decision to end his campaign.

Let me get this out of the way first: I think Vice President Kamala Harris is very likely to be the replacement Democratic nominee. Biden endorsed her soon after ending his own campaign and she has three BIG things going for her: 1) She is the sitting VP 2) She is black and 3) She is a woman.

I would be surprised if any serious challenger entered the fray against Harris. I will have all of that in future posts.

But, today, I wanted to just offer up a few Biden-specific thoughts that hit me after hearing the news. These are in no particular order other than how they came to me.

• This was inevitable: Since the opening moments of the June 27 debate — as Biden stiffly walked on stage and began speaking hoarsely and unsteadily— I suspected that this day would have to come. Candidly, I thought it might have happened sooner.

  The political reality was this: Biden had a “too old” problem long before the debate. That he affirmed those concerns in the debate made his candidacy totally untenable. There is simply no argument you can make — if you are Biden or his team — that convinces people that what they see with their eyes and heart with their ears isn’t happening.

  Biden tried to fight the obvious political reality for weeks — even as national and swing state polls made clear that he had slipped after the debate and was now not the best option for his party to beat Donald Trump.

  In the end, however, despite all of the denunciations of the media for “falsely” reporting that he would get out of the race, he did eventually face his political reality — and realize there was no future there. He had committed an un-com-back-able error and there was no way to fix it.

• The Biden team knew: I don’t think we should lose sight of this point. For months — really years — the Biden inner circle insisted that political reporters (like me!) who talked about the president’s age as a major issue should be ashamed of themselves. Biden, according to these people, was spry. He was more energetic than young aides! He ran circles around his staff! Age is just a number!

  We now know that simply wasn’t true. There is now a ton of reporting that makes clear that Biden has been in mental and physical decline for months now. And that aides not only knew that but purposely shielded the president from the public eye as a way to limit the possibility of a major gaffe.

  That, to me, is inexcusable. I don’t blame Joe Biden one bit for it — we are always the last to know when we have lost a step (or three). But, I do blame the staff. Because even while they were scolding reporters who dared asked questions about Biden’s health and publicly insisting this was the most important election in the history of democracy, they were keeping the biggest secret in the country: The president was simply not up to this race.

  That bugs me. As a reporter, yes. But as a citizen too! Like, this isn’t some random race for a figurehead role. It’s the presidency of the United States! The most powerful job in the world! You can’t just pretend everything is fine when you know it’s not!

• Biden’s doubts about Kamala: Look, I know Biden endorsed Harris today. (Despite the fact that his initial statement didn’t even mention her!) But the truth of the matter is that one of the BIG reasons he ran for reelection — despite his age and despite having promised in 2020 to be a “bridge” to a next generation of Democratic leaders — is because he did not think she could beat Trump.

  And, one of the reasons it took so long for Biden to bow to the inevitable and get out of this race is because he still had to be convinced that she could win.

  So, is he convinced? Impossible to say. He endorsed her, which from Harris’ point of view is probably all that matters. But make no mistake: Biden has doubted Harris’ ability to win this race for a LOT longer than he has been convinced she can win.

• Biden is a decent man: Many of you think I have been too hard on Biden since the debate. Which is absolutely your right to think! (I would argue I have followed the story, which is my job.)

  But, my critique of Biden was never personal, only based on unchangeable political realities.

  Do I think Biden conducted himself terribly well over the last three-plus weeks? Not really. He was, at turns, arrogant and dismissive. The chip on his shoulder that has always been a part of his political personality really came out.

  That said, at root, I believe Biden to be a genuinely decent human and someone who is committed to the right values when it comes to public service.

  Back in September 2023, I wrote about what I called the “fundamental decency” of Biden. Here’s a snippet from that piece:

  In short: The whole “Uncle Joe” thing is real. People vote for Biden because they believe him to be a decent human being with a fundamental goodness in his intentions.

  That’s the Biden brand. Heart in the right place — even if the decision-making isn’t perfect. A flawed but well meaning leader.

  I still totally believe that. Joe Biden was in politics for the right reasons. And while he took too long to admit his time had come, he ultimately got out of the race for the right reasons too: He knew he couldn’t win, and losing meant a second term for Donald Trump.

• The Democratic party now has a chance: As I have written and said many times over the past three weeks, Joe Biden was going to lose to Donald Trump. I didn’t think it would be a huge blowout. But he was going to lose.

  Assuming Harris is the nominee — and with every passing minute that looks more likely — Democrats can make a plausible case that they can beat Trump.

  That’s not to say they will beat Trump with Harris. I think she will start behind in most swing states — and maybe behind a point or two nationally as well. But Harris’ ceiling — and, really, the ceiling of anyone not named “Joe Biden” — is much higher.

  This decision puts Democrats back in the game. They now have a case they can take to the public. It might not be a winning case. But it’s not the sure loser that Biden had become.