6 takeaways from Ron DeSantis' secret campaign memo

It's not good, people.

(Ron DeSantis)

NBC News got its hands on a private memo Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign sent out to donors designed to calm them from total panic inform them about the state of the race.

Like all memos designed to not be made public, there’s a few very interesting things in this one. (You can read the memo for yourself right here.)

I went through it and plucked out a few of the observations I had on it. They’re below.

1. Tim Scott has momentum. A section detailing who voters are responding to — mostly DeSantis and former president Donald Trump — includes this line: “While Tim Scott has earned a serious look at this stage, his bio is lacking the fight that our electorate is looking for in the next president.”

   Which is fascinating. What DeSantis and his team are — essentially — saying is that Scott is building support (maybe especially in Iowa???) but that he is too nice to ultimately win the nomination. Which is an interesting argument to make.

   The DeSantis memo also says this: “We expect Tim Scott to receive appropriate scrutiny in the weeks ahead.” Which translated means: As Scott becomes more relevant, the media is going to turn its lens to him and he won’t fare well. (Or so they hope.)

   What the memo suggests is that polling — at least at the national level — has failed to pick up Scott’s momentum. But that it is real.

2. DeSantis isn’t walking away from New Hampshire. With Trump way ahead in polling in the Granite State, there has been talk that DeSantis should either skip or downplay the state — looking ahead in the calendar for states more amenable to him.

   Not going to happen, according to the memo. “It would be a mistake to take a paid media and field off the table in service of other states, we will not cede New Hampshire,” reads a bolded(!) section of the memo.

   Which is a major decision — if they stick to it. Because Trump is going to be VERY hard to dislodge in New Hampshire. And Chris Christie, who is having a bit of a burst at the moment, is also targeting New Hampshire as a must have.

   DeSantis and his team clearly believe that giving Trump a pass in New Hampshire — and allowing him to likely win going away — would be a mistake for the overall arc of the race.

3. DeSantis is relying on an early state slingshot. This, to me, might be the most important line in the memo: “While Super Tuesday is critically important, we will not dedicate resources to Super Tuesday that slow our momentum in New Hampshire. We expect to revisit this investment in the fall.”

   Translated what that means is that DeSantis is pushing all of his chips into the early states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and to a lesser extent Nevada — in hopes that wins (or surprisingly strong showings) will slingshot him into Super Tuesday with momentum (and money).

   What’s somewhat revelatory about that is the fact that DeSantis and his team have been talking a big game about being one of the only candidates (other than Trump) to be settling in for a long fight through Super Tuesday and beyond. “Trump and DeSantis begin eyeing Super Tuesday states as they prepare for 2024 long game,” read an Associated Press headline in the last week.

   So, yeah.

4. People like Ron…really!: One of the consistent criticisms of DeSantis is that the more voters get to know him, the less they like him. (He is a decidedly awkward presence on the campaign trail — and hasn’t gotten much better since formally entering the race.)

   Not so, according to this memo! “We’ve found that when voters hear about the Governor’s bio —principally as a Dad and as a veteran — they like him and are open to hearing more about him.” See!

   It’s important to parse that language though. It doesn’t say that when voters find more out about DeSantis they support him or want to vote for him. No, it only says that they “are open to hearing more about him.” Which isn’t the same thing!

5. A Trump-adjacent attack formula: DeSantis, personally, hasn’t been willing to carry on a sustained attack campaign on Trump. He hits him here and there but doesn’t go directly at him like, say, Christie.

   That approach will continue, according to the memo. “Our campaign will make the contrast between Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis clear — but we won’t avoid Trump’s failings when asked. Our strategy? Question Asked, Question Answered, then on to how we beat Joe Biden.”

   Again, some translation is necessary here. What that all means is that when asked about Trump, DeSantis will answer, but will then quickly pivot to talking about Joe Biden.

   Candidly, I think that is a MAJOR strategic mistake. The only way around Trump in this primary is through him. Trying to turn the primary into a fight over Biden’s tenure — and, I suppose, subtly making the electability argument — I don’t think will work.

6. DeSantis needs to get more press attention. The memo reads: “More earned media will result in increased standing on the ballot.” And “the earned media is the cake. The paid media (early states and national conservative cable) is the icing.”

   This is a recognition that DeSantis conservative-media-only strategy has backfired. It simply has not got him the look that he and his campaign desperately need.

   This ABC News report speaks to the (inevitable) shift coming for DeSantis campaign:

   Amid that slow start, the DeSantis campaign has been weighing a shift in media strategy, sources tell ABC News. While candidates like former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have made regular appearances on CNN and MSNBC a part of their White House runs, DeSantis has largely shunned mainstream media outlets and has mainly stuck to more friendly platforms like Fox News and conservative news media -- a trend that has caught the eye of Trump and his team, sources said.

   That may be about to change, according to multiple sources, who said the governor's team is leaning toward having DeSantis begin doing mainstream network interviews and possibly town halls.

   Um, no duh. No candidate can win a nomination for president by ONLY talking to friendly media. It’s stunning it took DeSantis this long to figure that out.