7 numbers from the new New York Times poll that should really worry Joe Biden

Oomph.

The big headline from the new New York Times national poll is this: Donald Trump 48%, Joe Biden 43%.

Which, if you are a Democrat, is worrisome! After all, the Times poll, which is conducted in conjunction with Siena College, is a very good one with an impressive track record of accuracy.

And, it’s far from an outlier in the presidential race. In fact, of the last 8 national polls on the race, Trump leads in seven. (One showed the race tied.)

But, while the head-to-head number is sexy — and the thing most people pay attention to — I think the NYT/Siena poll has even worse implications for Biden as he seeks to beat Trump this fall.

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I dug deeper into the questions (and data) from the poll — you can too right here — and found 7 numbers that should really concern Biden and his party. Let’s go through them one by one.

1. Should Joe Biden be the nominee (asked of Democrats)?

Let’s be clear where we are in this race: Joe Biden is GOING to be the Democratic nominee for president. The other options are Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and spiritual guru Marianne Williamson. Neither of them are serious candidates.

And yet, despite that fact, DEMOCRATS are still split evenly on whether Biden should be their party’s nominee! Like, WHAT?

What’s worse, the current numbers on that question are statistically unchanged from where they were LAST July — when there was a much more serious debate about whether Biden would run again in 2024. That suggests to me that even as Biden has become the de facto nominee, it hasn’t changed Democrats’ views on whether they want him to be.

2. Would you be enthusiastic if Biden was nominee (asked of Democrats)?

One in four Democrats say that they would be “dissatisfied” with Biden as the nominee — roughly the same percentage who say they would be “enthusiastic” about that prospect.

Now, compare that to how Republicans answered the same question on Trump: 48% “enthusiastic” and 9% “dissatisfied.”

So, more than DOUBLE the amount of Republicans feels enthusiastic about Trump as the nominee as Democrats do about Biden as their standard-bearer.

Whoa.

3. Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win?

Remember that Trump led by 5 points on the ballot question. But, on the “who do you THINK will win” question, his lead is 9 — and Biden is at a meager 39%.

This is a question that tests perception not reality. The problem for Biden is that perception often becomes reality. And that can have an effect on swing and low information voters who, honestly, like to say they voted for the winner, choose their candidate.

4. Biden job approval

Yes, the overall job approval numbers — 36% approve/61% disapprove — are not good. But, I would argue that what’s worse is the massive the enthusiasm gap present in this data.

Just 17% “strongly” approve of Biden while almost THREE times that number (47%) “strongly” disapprove of him.

The haters are legion. The lovers are sparse. That is never something you want to see as a well-known incumbent (or ANY politician).

5. Are Biden/Trump too old to be an effective president?

Half — HALF — of the poll’s sample “strongly” agree with the idea that Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president. Another 26% “somewhat” agree with that idea. Add it up and you get this: Three quarters(!) of the electorate thinks that the current incumbent is too old to be effective at his job. Remarkable.

As to the “but Trump is old too!” crowd, well, the public doesn’t see it that way. Just one in 5 poll respondents “strongly” agree with the idea the former president is too old to be president while another 21% “somewhat” agree. Combine those two numbers and that’s still less than the percentage of people who “strongly” agree that Biden is too old to be an effective president.

6. Is Biden capable of doing the job?

I mean, this one doesn’t need much analysis. More than 6 in 10 voters say that Biden’s is so old that he is “not capable of handling the job of president.” Are those same voters — or some decent-sized chunk of them — actually going to vote for Biden this fall? And, if so, how? (If you are wondering, 46% said Trump was so old that he could not do the job of president.)

7. Have Biden’s policies helped or hurt you personally?

If the fundamental question of an incumbent seeking a second term is “Are you better off than you were four years ago,” that answer appears to be a resounding “no” for a large chunk of the electorate.

More troublesome for Biden? Forty percent said Trump’s policies in office helped them personally while 25% said his policies hurt them.