A chart on Donald Trump that will stun you

Or: What Trump has to do with my ex-girlfriend

Generally speaking, the New York Times/Siena College poll released over the weekend was good news for Joe Biden.

Donald Trump took 46% of the national vote to 45% for Biden, a change from late February when the same poll showed the race 48% Trump, 43% Biden.

As the Times noted:

Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president — 97 percent to 83 percent — but that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.

The Times/Siena poll is also part of a larger polling trend toward Biden. While Trump led for much of the last few months, the race is now effectively tied, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average:

So, again, good news for Biden and his team. And evidence, I think, that Democrats — post- “State of the Union” — are starting to realize that a) Biden is going to be the nominee and b) he is the best and only chance to beat Trump.

(Sidebar: For a great breakdown of this poll, read Dan Pfeiffer.)

I spent a decent chunk of Sunday looking through ALL of the poll results in the Times/Siena survey, however, and I found something that absolutely stunned me — and, I think, should worry the Biden team more than a little bit.

Here’s a chart I just could not believe: