A scary paragraph for Senate Republicans

An(other) Arizona debacle?

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“In Arizona, an emerging battleground, defeated gubernatorial candidate and former TV newscaster Kari Lake is considering running for the Senate seat held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, according to a person familiar with the discussions who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations candidly. And Blake Masters, the venture capitalist who lost the Senate race to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in November, told The Washington Post he is also ‘seriously’ weighing another bid — setting up a scenario where a candidate who underperformed could again clinch the nomination in the swing state.”

That’s new reporting this morning from the Washington Post. And it’s the worst news of the day for Senate Republicans looking to (again) retake the majority from Democrats in 2024.

Lake, as you may remember, rose to prominence during the 2022 campaign as one of the most ardent defenders of Donald Trump’s election conspiracies. And then she lost a decidedly winnable race for governor.

Since that loss, Lake has spent her time trying, unsuccessfully, to overturn the results. In late December those efforts suffered a seeming death blow when a state judge dismissed her last two outstanding claims of voting misconduct in Maricopa County.

As the New York Times noted of that ruling:

“Ms. Lake and her supporters conjured up what they called a deliberate effort by election officials in Maricopa County, the state’s largest county, to disenfranchise her voters. But they never provided evidence of such intentional malfeasance, nor even evidence that any voters had been disenfranchised.”

That ruling hasn’t stopped Lake from insisting she was the victim of some sort of widespread voting conspiracy. "We had 1,000 pages of signed declarations under the penalty of perjury from voters and people who had been wronged, and who were disenfranchised,” she said during a recent TV appearance. “We were able to take all of those declarations and admit them as evidence into the court. They are part of the case.”

And now, amid that ongoing fight, Lake is being floated (or floating herself!) as a candidate to take on newly independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

Which may be the one path that Sinema could have to another term.

Consider what we know about the race at the moment.

1. Sinema is going to run as an independent

2. Rep. Ruben Gallego seems to be moving closer and closer to running for the Democratic nomination. “Kyrsten Sinema hasn’t held a town hall in Arizona for years. Instead, she flies to Switzerland for a town hall with the rich and powerful,” Gallego tweeted earlier this week about Sinema appearing at Davos. “Not a Joke! I haven't made a decision on running, but I'm one step closer today.”

3. Lake, if she ran, would start as the clear favorite for the Republican nomination. After all, she beat an establishment candidate — Karrin Taylor Robson — who had the backing of the popular outgoing Republican governor in a 2022 primary. And her election denialism is catnip to the Arizona Republican base.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume all three of those things come to pass. If they did, the general election would be a three-way race between Gallego-Sinema-Lake.

Given how unpopular Sinema is among the Democratic base, it’s hard to see her winning much support from Gallego in that pool of voters. Which would necessitate her fishing for political independents and Republicans to cobble together a coalition that might get her reelected.

How could that happen? Only if Republicans wound up nominating someone who would likely hemorrhage voters in the middle and even among the establishment/business wings of the GOP. Like Lake!

The two most likely outcomes of such a scenario would be a Gallego win (thanks to consolidated Democratic support) or a Sinema victory (thanks to a centrist lane created by a controversial nominee like Lake.)

For Republicans, the prospect of a Lake candidacy has to feel like deja vu all over again.

In 2022, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly was seen as one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection. Republicans wound up nominating Masters, a first-time candidate with a history of saying and writing controversial things. (Masters benefited greatly from being the endorsed candidate of Donald Trump.)

Kelly won relatively easily — 51%-46.5% — one of a series of blows that led to Republicans failing to win the Senate majority.

Mindful of that lesson, Senate leaders have pledged to wade into primaries more actively in 2024. The problem? It’s not at all clear to me that Washington-based Republicans could keep Lake from the Republican nomination if she wanted it. (And while Masters might be better as a general election candidate than Lake, it’s not a massive difference.)

Look, it’s early. Lake hasn’t announced she’s running. And she may not! But, if she does, it’s quite clearly a problem for Senate Republicans.