CHRIS CRUCIAL: 5 key takeaways on Hunter Biden's 'guilty' verdict

PLUS: 538 unveils its first 2024 forecast!

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1. Guilty!

Hunter Biden, the lone living son of President Joe Biden, was found guilty Tuesday on all three felony counts of buying a gun while knowingly using drugs.

That, in and of itself, is history making: Hunter Biden is the first son of a sitting president to be convicted of a crime.

But, what does it actually mean for the 2024 presidential race? I have thoughts! Five of them to be exact!

1. Biden, the dad: I think we tend to lose the human element in all of this. Joe Biden is president, yes, but he is, first and foremost, Hunter’s dad. And, as a dad, this whole trial has been very tough for Biden. At best, it’s a distraction. At worst, it’s a constant worry always bouncing around in his head.

   That’s compounded now that Hunter has been convicted. It ensures that a very dark period for the entire Biden family will remain in the public spotlight — at least until Hunter is charged. And it could mean that his son is jailed — the maximum penalty is 25 years in jail — which would weigh on any dad. (Legal experts say it is very unlikely Hunter, a first-time offender, would spend anywhere near that amount of time incarcerated.)

   Biden has privately worried for months that the stress of the trial could cause Hunter to relapse into abusing drugs and alcohol. Now, with Hunter a convicted felon, those worries will only escalate. As a sign of his concern, Biden changed his official schedule so that he could be in Wilmington, Delaware tonight.

   The truth is that Biden really can’t afford many distractions. As I noted this morning, if he is going to win, it’s going to be by a narrow margin. And the Hunter thing is a MAJOR distraction. If Joe Biden is worried about his son going to prison, that’s less mind space he can devote to winning, say, Pennsylvania. To me, that’s the biggest potential impact that this verdict has on the race.

2. Voters don’t care all that much (yet). There’s been a few national polls testing how much impact the Hunter trial and charges have on how people regard his dad.

   Here’s how Emerson College described the results of their poll findings earlier this month:

   A majority of voters (64%) say Hunter Biden’s trial has no impact on their vote in 2024, 12% say it makes them more likely to support Joe Biden, and 24% say it makes them less likely to vote for Biden. Voters were also asked one of the jury selection questions, if they believe Hunter Biden is being prosecuted because his father is President of the United States: 49% think he is not, 27% think he is, and 24% are unsure.

   It’s worth noting that the plurality of voters who say that Hunter’s trial makes them less likely to vote for Joe Biden are Republicans. As Forbes noted: “Only 11% of respondents who said they would be less likely to vote for Biden are Democrats, compared to 42% who are Republican.”

   A Monmouth University poll conducted last fall found similar results:

   

   Of the 27% who said it made them “less likely” to vote for Biden, just 1 in 10 were Democrats.

   Could this change now that we have a verdict? And a “guilty” verdict at that? Sure! But, right now, most people don’t seem to think what happens to Hunter Biden means all that much about Joe Biden.

3. The legal system is rigged???: Donald Trump — and his fellow Republicans — have spent a whole lot of time in Congress and on the campaign trail making the case that the whole legal system is rigged to target the former president and let the current president (and his family) off.

   This verdict seems to, er, disrupt that logic.