CHRIS CRUCIAL: 8 reasons why Trump picked J.D. Vance

PLUS: More bad poll #s for Biden

I am posting “Chris Crucial” a little early tonight — due to the news that Donald Trump has picked Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate.

And, if you are a paid subscriber, don’t forget that I am doing a live chat during the GOP convention starting at 10 pm eastern tonight. (I will send a link later!) If you aren’t a paid subscriber, I am running a sale right now! Just $5 a month and $50 for the year! ⬇️

1. Trump-Vance 2024

Donald Trump picked Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his vice presidential running mate on Monday afternoon, announcing the choice via Truth Social:

The pick was not a surprise. Vance had been at the top of most VP lists for the last few months and it would have been a shocking development had it NOT been him.

As always in this newsletter, I aim to take you beyond the “what” and into the “so what” territory. Which means that my job is to explain to you WHY Trump decided on Vance. I’ve listed 8 reasons below. These are in no particular order other than that which they occurred to me.

1. Vance is Midwestern

Trump always says exactly what he thinks — which makes it easier to, well, know what he is thinking. In this case, the end of Trump’s Truth Social post does all the work for us; the former president says that Vance will be “strongly focused” on “Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio [and] Minnesota.”

There’s no doubt that if Trump can win one of the three Midwestern Rust Belt States currently considered toss ups — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — he makes it very hard for Joe Biden to get to 270 electoral votes.

Does putting Vance on the ticket guarantee a win in any of those three states? No. But Vance has a demonstrated appeal — in Ohio at least — to middle class and lower middle class white voters who could well push Trump over the finish line in any or all of those three states.

2. Don Jr. ❤️ Vance

Donald Trump listens to very few people. But, among that small group, his eldest son, Don Jr., has some real sway. The elder Trump respects his son’s political sense and savvy. And Don Jr. and Vance are very close friends.

As the the New York Times wrote in a profile of the two men and their friendship: “They text or talk nearly daily and try to meet up if they are in the same city, according to people who know them both. They are a social-media tag team, often reposting each other’s messages.”

In the wake of the pick, Don Jr. sang Vance’s praises. “I’ve seen him on TV, I’ve seen him prosecute the case against the Democrats, I think no one is more articulate than that and I think his story, his background, really helps us a lot in the places you are going to need from the Electoral College standpoint,” Don Jr. said of the Ohio Senator. (On that last point, see #1.)

3. Vance is a celebrity

Trump likes to surround himself with “stars.” He thinks of himself as one and believes that there are just certain people who exude charisma and, well, star power. (That fact makes his pick of Mike Pence in 2016 all the weirder.)

Vance fits that bill. His memoir — “Hillbilly Elegy” was not only a massive best-seller but was turned into a movie as well. (Ron Howard directed it!)

Vance is a coveted speaker on the Republican fundraising circuit. He’s a regular on the conservative TV circuit. He’s, well, someone. And Trump likes that.

(Candidly, I thought Vance might be too big a star for Trump, who doesn’t like anyone to shine brighter than him, to pick.)

4. Vance looks the part

Remember that a WHOLE lot of Trump’s calculations when picking a VP (or, really, anyone else for a job) is whether they look the part. Are they, in Trump’s words, “straight out of central casting.”

Vance is handsome. Rugged-looking. (Vance’s beard became a point of some contention during the Veepstakes.) He served in the Marine Corps. Got a law degree at Yale.

Trump loves all that stuff.

5. Vance is young

Vance is only 39 years old — almost four decades younger than Trump and more than four decades younger than Biden. (Vance would be the third youngest VP ever if Trump wins.)

That’s absolutely critical as Trump will seek to make the case that his ticket represents the future while the Democratic slate is about the past. (Vice President Kamala Harris is 59.)

With Biden’s age — and questions about his ability to do the job for another four years — very much on the minds of voters, putting Vance on the ticket is a stark reminder that the current president is, well, very old.

6. Vance is a provocateur

Trump likes people who he views as unafraid. People who are willing to throw a rhetorical bomb or two (or twenty). Someone like him.

Vance is very much in that vein. One recent example? In the immediate aftermath of the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday, Vance took to X to say this:

Not exactly calming the waters! But that’s not, really, what Trump wants. He wants someone who is willing to mix it up — especially with the other side. And someone who will do it without apology. Ever.

7. Vance once loathed Trump

Following the announcement that Vance was the VP pick, liberals gleefully took to X to post all of the bad things that the Ohio Senator has said about Trump. And there’s plenty of material there!

But, here’s the thing: I think that past criticism actually endears Vance to Trump. Because Vance has cast himself as someone who has evolved on Trump the more he’s gotten to know him.

“But, look, my view on Donald Trump — I have been very clear on this — is, look, I was wrong about him,” Vance has said. “I didn’t think he was going to be a good president…and I was very, very proud to be proven wrong.”

Trump, always a reality TV show producer, loves a second-chance story! Vance didn’t like him before he knew him. But then he came to realize how great Trump actually is! It’s a redemption story. Great TV!

8. Vance is Trump 2.0

The question of what would become of the Trump movement once the former president is gone has been a topic of debate for years.

What’s clear now is that Trump wants Trumpism to live longer than he does. As Damon Linker, who writes the terrific “Notes from the Middleground” Substack, tweeted today:

This is exactly right. Vance is an acolyte and adopter of the national populism of Trump. He is deeply skeptical of American involvement in international conflicts and groups. He is an “America Firster” through and through.

Trump knew what he was doing in making this pick. He was anointing Vance as the “next” Trump come 2028. And Vance will, undoubtedly, grab that baton and run with it — literally.

2. It’s not just the ‘elites’

One of the canards pushed by President Biden and his inner circle following his disastrous debate performance is that the “elites” both within the Democratic party and in the media are the only ones who want him to step aside.

That’s NEVER been true. For the 18 months before the debate, poll after poll after poll showed a large majority of the American public — including a near-majority of Democrats — believed Biden was too old and should not run again.

And that reality remains — as evidence by the data cited in the chart above from new New York Times-Siena College polling in Virginia and Pennsylvania.

There‘s also this finding from a new NBC-Wall Street Journal poll:

More than 6 in 10 Democrats “would have preferred someone” other than Biden! Remarkable. And not exactly just the opinions of “elites.”

Look. This was always bunk. Biden needed a way to explain why he wanted to stay on the ballot despite clear polling evidence that doing so could result not just in the loss of the White House but also downballot defeats as well.

He decided that by targeting “elites” he could put down this revolt. I am not sure if it was going to work but then someone tried to assassinate Trump and, probably, saved Biden’s candidacy. (More on that here.)

But don’t be fooled: This was not — and is not — a movement made up primarily (or even mostly) of elites. A plurality of Democrats, at minimum, want someone other than Joe Biden as their nominee. And those numbers remain a major problem for Biden and his chances at winning a 2nd term in the White House.

3. Joe Biden’s rent gambit

On Tuesday, Joe Biden will travel to Nevada, a swing state that, if polling is to believed, is slipping out of his grasp this fall.

Hoping to turn things around in the state, Biden is expected to unveil a cap on rent increases.

The Washington Post, which broke the news of the announcement, wrote:

The policy push reflects the White House’s efforts to respond to widespread voter anger over high housing prices, which have soared since the pandemic and undermined Biden’s standing among voters about the economy. Nevada has seen among the biggest explosions of housing costs in the country, and Democrats have grown increasingly concerned that Trump could win the state in November.

Biden’s plan — which would need to be approved by Congress — calls for stripping a tax benefit from landlords who increase their tenants’ rent more than 5 percent per year, the people said. The measure would only apply to landlords who own more than 50 units, which represents roughly half of all rental properties, the people said. It wouldn’t cover units that have not yet been built, in an attempt to ensure that the policy does not discourage construction of new rental housing.

According to Zillow, rent increases nationally have increased by 35% in the last 5 years.

Back in March, the White House announced a series of moves designed to lower costs for home ownership and renting. And in his State of the Union speech, Biden made specific reference to his focus on renters:

For millions of renters, we’re cracking down on big landlords who break antitrust laws by price-fixing and driving up rents.  

I’ve cut red tape so more builders can get federal financing, which is already helping build a record 1.7 million housing units nationwide. 

Now pass my plan to build and renovate 2 million  affordable homes and bring those rents down! 

Congress did not pass his plan. And, despite his expected announcement tomorrow, there is a 0% chance that Congress acts on it before the November election.

Which is not, really, the point. Biden HAS to find ways to show Nevada voters — and voters in other swing states — that he understands their struggles and is committed to trying to help them.

Right now, he’s clearly behind in Nevada. Here’s what the 538 polling average looks like in the Silver State:

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I speak for Iowa, the home of the inspiring Caitlin Clark.” —Iowa Republican state party chair Jeff Kaufman at today’s Republican National Convention

ONE GOOD CHART
The attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday is part of a broader rise in political violence in the U.S., according to this Washington Post chart.

SONG OF THE DAY

I still remember Pete Rock fondly from his command performance (with CL Smooth) on “They Reminisce Over You (T.R.O.Y.).” He’s back — this time with the one and only Common. Their new album is called “The Auditorium, Volume 1.” It’s terrific. This is “Dreamin’” from it.

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