CHRIS CRUCIAL: 9 thoughts on the Biden-Trump debates

PLUS: Biden to blame for the end of Roe???

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1. We have debates!

In the space of a few hours on Wednesday, Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to not one but two presidential debates. Which is wild!

The first debate will be June 27 and hosted by CNN. The second will be on September 10 and will run on ABC.

I have thoughts. A bunch of them. Here they are — in no particular order other than how they came to me.

1. This is an attempt — by both Trump and Biden — to marginalize Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and deny him of any sort of momentum heading into the general election. To qualify for the CNN debate, Kennedy will need to be on the ballot in enough states to add up to 270 electoral votes. I don’t see that happening in the next 5 weeks. The agreement by Trump and Biden to box out Kennedy — and, make no mistake, this was done purposely — speaks to how both sides are wary of how RFK Jr. will ultimately impact the race. Trump and Biden figure the less of the vote he gets, the better for both of them.

2. Biden did this because he knows he needs to change the dynamic of the race. For all of their bluster about how the race is going perfectly, the truth is that the Biden White House knows that a) he’s behind and b) no external events, to date, have moved the needle in any appreciable way.

   

   A presidential debate won’t get Super Bowl-like ratings but it is an event in the political calendar that will draw lots and lots of eyeballs. (By way of comparison, 73 million people watched the first Trump-Biden debate in 2020.) With that many people (or close to it) watching, it’s a real opportunity for Biden to change the narrative.

3. The Commission on Presidential Debates is dead. The CPD was once a testament to bipartisan cooperation — populated by former poobahs of the Democratic and Republican parties, the commission was able to serve as an honest broker between the two campaigns every four years. It was, well, quaint. Biden’s decision to reject the CPD’s proposed debates — the commission had proposed three, all after Labor Day — means that its day has probably come and gone. It’s hard to imagine the genie going back in the bottle. In the future my guess is that campaigns will just negotiate their own debates. Or just stop debating entirely.

4. Biden gets that the age/competence issue isn’t going to just disappear. For months, Trump has been pushing to debate Biden. Biden had, largely, played it off — buying himself time to think on it. My strong sense is that he and the campaign’s leadership decided that not debating Trump — with Trump constantly pushing publicly for debates — would make it look like they were hiding Biden, and add to existing voter doubts about Biden’s ability to do the job.

5. This is a BIG risk for Biden. Look, this is the reality: Biden LOOKS much older than Trump. (Yes, I know they are only four years apart in age. And, again yes, I know that Donald Trump eats horribly and never exercises.) But, just look at and listen to the two men — objectively. Biden moves haltingly. He speaks haltingly. He looks old. Trump says all manner of weird/crazy things but he looks energetic and with it while speaking. That’s just the reality — whether you like it or not. And that reality means that Biden has to be very careful not to stumble — physically or verbally. Or to look like he didn’t hear questions. Or like he is out of it at all. Now, he’s done this! His State of the Union speech was so good that it led Trump to speculate that Biden was on cocaine. (I still can’t believe a) that happened and b) we don’t keep talking about it.) But this is a high-wire act without a net. HUGE stakes.