CHRIS CRUCIAL: A Republican *should* win this election

PLUS: Tim Walz's stolen valor?

Welcome to Chris Crucial. Check out my mission statement on why you should invest in me. It’s $6 a month/$60 for the year to become a paid subscriber! Do it today!👇

1. Is Trump blowing it?

What if I told you that:

• The incumbent president’s approval rating has been stuck in the high 30s for more than a year

• The Democratic presidential nominee has been vice president for the last 3+ years

• The two most important issues to voters are immigration and the economy — and polls suggest that on both of those more people trust the Republican nominee than the Democratic administration to effectively handle them

• Two thirds of the voting public believe the country is headed off on the wrong track

• Republicans have a larger electoral college advantage — solely based on the political underpinnings of the map — than at any time in the last 25 years

• The Republican nominee survived an assassination attempt

And then I asked you who was going to win the White House in the fall. Not who you wanted to win but who you thought would win based on all of those facts.

You would, almost certainly, say the Republican.

And, if you didn’t, you should. Because the truth of the matter is that given the political environment, a Republican should absolutely win the presidency this fall.

Except that Republicans nominated Donald Trump, the weakest possible candidate of the people who sought the GOP nomination (and, yes, I know Ron DeSantis is in that group!) and maybe the only person who could lose a race that is this, well, winnable.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board, no liberal enclave, drew this same conclusion in an op-ed this week. They write:

Republicans are wondering if Donald Trump made a mistake in choosing J.D. Vance as his running mate. But the more urgent and consequential question for Republicans with 90 days left in the campaign is whether Mr. Trump is going to blow another presidential race he should win.

The economic and security fundamentals are teed up for a Republican victory. Voters and especially the working class are unhappy with the economy, as average real incomes have declined across the Biden Presidency. The chaos at the border has spread to cities around the country…

…The Trump campaign knows this, but the problem is the candidate. Mr. Trump has his passionate followers who don’t want to hear a discouraging word. Yet the political reality is that he has a ceiling of support that is below 50% because so many Americans dislike him. And now that he is in the news every day campaigning, he is reminding those voters why they didn’t vote to re-elect him in 2020.

Ms. Harris in particular seems to have unnerved him as he scrambles but fails to find an attack line that works. He’s said she “doesn’t like Jewish people,” though her husband is Jewish. He’s attacked her racial identity, which alienates swing voters. He calls her “low IQ” and “dumb,” as if the school-yard insult will persuade anyone.

Imagine, just for a minute, if Nikki Haley — admittedly this would only happen on Earth 2 — won the Republican nomination this year. Is there ANY way that she wouldn’t be ahead of Kamala Harris right now? Even with the great last 2 weeks Harris has had?

I struggle to see it.

And yet, Trump is either losing this race or in a dogfight for the presidency. Despite the fact that on immigration, the economy, international affairs and virtually every other major issue out there, the public is closer to the Republican position than the Democratic one right now.

So, why? Because people do not like Trump. And from his rambling-and-at-times-incoherent convention acceptance speech to his latest antics about Harris’ racial identity and his ad hominem hits on popular Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, he is proving why every single day.

What Trump should do — and what any other Republican nominee would be doing — is tie Harris to the economic and border policies of the unpopular Democratic president. Talk about how she worked hand in hand with Biden on these policies — and she can’t run from them now.

It would almost certainly work. But, he simply cannot do it. It’s not in him.

Which means that this is going to be a very close election. If Trump loses — and it’s a coin flip or maybe slightly better for Harris right now — the GOP should kick itself. Because they will have blown a golden opportunity to seize back the White House.

2. Tim Walz’s military record, examined

There’s a whole lot of misinformation flying around about VP nominee Tim Walz’s record of military service.

Luckily, we have someone like Glenn Kessler, the fact checker at the Washington Post, on the case.

Glenn went through each claim and offered an assessment of the validity (or lack thereof). Let’s go through a few of them. And PLEASE make sure to read Glenn’s full column. Terrific stuff.

First, the idea that Walz’s retirement in 2005 was specifically aimed at getting out of being deployed to Iraq.

Here’s Glenn’s conclusion: “Walz knew that he might soon be deployed to Iraq. However, he had served nearly a quarter-century in the guard and had already announced he was considering a congressional race. He has said he could not do both, and so chose to run for Congress. Whether he abandoned his troops is a matter of perspective, but it is noteworthy that his retirement request was not blocked.”

Second, the notion that Walz inflated his rank on his resume. (Walz referred to himself as a Command Sergeant Major.)

Again, Glenn: “This is on the line. He did achieve the title he has claimed, for a total of seven months, but it would be more accurate to say he ‘served as command sergeant major’ rather than claim the title outright.

Third, the Walz quotes about having served in Operation Enduring Freedom — despite never actually deploying to Afghanistan.

Glenn’s take: “This is also on the line. We can find no evidence Walz ever claimed he served in Afghanistan. He served overseas in support of the Afghanistan war, but sometimes his phrasing might mislead people into thinking he was an Afghanistan veteran.”

And, finally, the quote from Walz from 2018 in which he said: “We can make sure that those weapons of war that I carried in war is the only place where those weapons are at.”

Here’s where Glenn lands on that one: “Walz’s language was sloppy and false. He did carry weapons of war — just not in war.”

This gibes entirely with my sense of things. I don’t think Walz is truly guilty of “stolen valor” but he clearly insinuated in that 2018 quote that he had carried weapons in war, which he hadn’t. As for the rank debate, it feels like semantics to me — and probably to anyone outside of the military.

Based on what I’ve seen, I don’t see this remaining a major issue for Walz and, by extension, Harris. The loudest voices crying foul on Walz were never going to vote for the Democratic ticket anyway.

3. Friday AMA

Every Friday I do an “Ask Me Anything” on my YouTube channel. It’s super fun! If you aren’t already a subscriber to my channel, do it today! We are over 35,000 people and growing!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“The task in front of us is to win this election and to not let Donald Trump become president again and to win the House of Representatives, which had certain leaders in 2022 done a slightly better job, maybe we would control today, but we don’t.” — Senior Biden adviser Anita Dunn taking a not-at-all-subtle shot at Nancy Pelosi

ONE GOOD CHART

Democrats are drastically outspending Republicans on ads in the 2024 presidential campaign, according to data from AdImpact. Democrats have spent $325 million to $181 million for Republicans.

SONG OF THE DAY

Earlier this week marked the five-year anniversary of the death of David Berman, the creative force behind the bands Silver Jews and Purple Mountains. (Berman’s story — his father is uber-lobbyist Richard Berman — is a tragic one.) Steven Hyden, one of my favorite music critics, wrote about Berman and Purple Mountains this week. It’s a terrific read. Below is “All My Happiness is Gone” from Purple Mountains. What a song.

Thanks for reading! This nightly newsletter brings you ALL of what you need to know from the world of politics. Think of it as a daily cheat sheet! If you want to get it in your email inbox every night at 7:30 pm, become a subscriber today!