CHRIS CRUCIAL: Dear Democrats: There is no sure thing

PLUS: What will Trump say?

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1. There is no 100%

One of the arguments I hear pretty regularly from Democrats who want to keep Joe Biden on the ticket is this: If we get rid of him, can you assure me his replacement will beat Donald Trump?

To which I answer: Of course not.

There are no sure things in politics. Particularly at the presidential level. We are deeply divided country. I could run my phone as the Democratic nominee against Donald Trump and it would get 47%. (And it’s not even an iPhone 15!)

And if my phone can get 47%, then my phone could win. No certainty!

Before I go any further, let me say this: I TOTALLY get why Democrats want certainty. They view Trump as an existential threat not just to the rights and values they hold dear but to the broader democratic experiment.

Losing then isn’t just about your guy not being in the White House. It’s about the fundamental pillars of what holds up our democracy being under threat. So you have to be SURE.

But, you can’t be sure. Which, for some people, is an argument to keep Biden. If there’s no sure thing, then why not go with a guy who is a) the sitting president of the United States and b) beat Trump four years ago?

Which, again, I get!

The issue for me with Biden is trajectory. Swing state polling today is worse for Biden than swing state polling was two weeks ago.

And it’s very hard for me to imagine how, exactly, Biden will solve his problem. Voters are convinced he is too old — and not competent enough to do the job for another four years.

How does Biden, uh, get younger? Or look younger? Or NEVER make a verbal or memory mistake — between now and November — that reminds people that they think he is too old and not competent enough?

The best trajectory for Biden is flat. The worst? It’s down. Bad.

Now consider Harris. Again, not a sure thing! But consider the trajectory. If Harris becomes the presidential nominee, she will be introduced (and re-introduced) to the public.

Not all of them will like what they see! But I can be convinced — relatively easily — that there is a plausible upward trajectory for Harris. If she can seize the idea that she is the future — and Trump is too old! — that could work! If she can play offense on abortion and the role Trump played in the overturning of Roe v Wade — that could work!

Will it definitely work? I don’t know! Anyone who tells you they know is lying! But I can see a path. I could see how it would work.

Ditto if Democrats go with Josh Shapiro. Or Gretchen Whitmer. Or Gavin Newsom. Or, really, almost any Democrat you can name.

Which is why I think — and have repeatedly written — that Democrats would be taking a bad (really bad) risk if they just went ahead with nominating Biden.

But I think anyone I just named above starts, at best, in a toss-up race with Trump and, at worst, 2-3 points behind him in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. (I tend to think Arizona, Nevada and Georgia may be out of reach for any of these other Democrats — as they were growing for Biden.)

Which, again, means that they could lose! And are, probably, slightly more likely to lose than win!

There are no sure things. But trajectory matters. And the trajectory for all of the people not named “Biden” is better than that of the current president.

2. What will Trump say?

In the wake of surviving an assassination attempt over the weekend, Donald Trump promised that his message to the Republican convention tonight will be one of unity.

And Lara Trump, co-chair of the RNC and Trump’s daughter-in-law, said Thursday morning that the speech would show a “softer” side of the former president. “I don’t think you can go through what he went through on Saturday, really a near-death experience, and not come out on the other side impacted,” she told CBS.

Which makes sense to me. At the same time, we are talking about Donald Trump here. Predictions that he is going to turn over a new leaf have been proven wrong time and time again.

Of course, Trump has never almost been assassinated before. So, I hold open at least the possibility that his speech tonight does take on a less combative tone. As for whether he keeps it up for the rest of the election, count me as VERY skeptical.

Trump has done this twice before. Below his speeches from the 2016 and 2020 conventions. It’s worth watching these to get a sort of baseline for Trump convention speeches so we can see if he really does something different tonight.

Here’s 2016:

And here’s 2020:

3. If not Biden then who?

As it looks increasingly likely that Biden won’t be the party’s nominee, it’s worth doing some early handicapping on who might be next.

The obvious (and probably right) answer is Kamala Harris. But there are plenty of other people mentioned too.

I went through 10(!) possibilities in my video today on my YouTube channel. Subscribe!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

"He looks very unhinged. A lot of people have concerns about him, and I'm not sure if he was on something. But I do hope that he gets the help that he needs. More importantly, I hope the young women get the justice they deserve when it comes to him.” — Former GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy on Florida GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz. Wowza.

ONE GOOD CHART

Vice presidential acceptance speeches just keep getting longer. JD Vance was no exception.

SONG OF THE DAY

On this day in 1998, the Beastie Boys’ “Hello Nasty” became the #1-selling album in the UK. It was the 2nd rap album ever to get to #1. (The first was by Wu-Tang Clan.) In honor of that achievement, here’s “Intergalactic” from that album.

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