CHRIS CRUCIAL: Democrats 'hold your breath' bet 🤞

PLUS: Trump VP timing!

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1. What sticking with Biden actually means

I think Connecticut Rep. Jim Himes is a very smart guy.

Prior to his time in Congress, he spent more than a decade at Goldman Sachs. He got elected to the House in 2008 by beating Republican Rep. Chris Shays, a longtime fixture in Nutmeg State politics.

In his eight terms, Himes has shown himself to be a thoughtful and serious legislator. He has risen to be the ranking Democratic member on the House Intelligence Committee.

He’s also not a guy who chases headlines or defines his success in Congress by how many likes he gets on a tweets or how many cable hits he does in a month.

So, when Himes talks, I listen. Which is what drew me to Himes’ statement Thursday night on why he believes President Joe Biden needs to step down as the Democratic nominee. It’s here:

Thoughtful. Well reasoned. And, I think, accurate — based on what we know today.

But, it’s something that Himes said in a subsequent interview with MSNBC’s Alex Wagner that I really want to draw your attention to.

Asked what he saw in Biden’s post-NATO press conference Thursday that led him to call for Biden to step aside, Himes responded this way (bolding is mine):

Yeah, Alex, it's really not about tonight. And one of the, really, kind of sick aspects of this moment is that we are watching every speech, every rally, every debate, and saying, how did he do today? And that's just not the way to think about the presidency of the United States.

That’s it. Exactly.

If Democrats decide to keep Biden as their nominee — or, more accurately, if they are not able to pressure him off the ballot — that is what they have to look forward to for the next four months.

Every time Biden appears in public — an interview, a speech, a debate — it will be an absolute high-wire act. Democrats will have to hold your breath and hope that he gets through it without too many flubs or without forgetting someone’s name or a line of attack or, well, anything.

Because if Biden does appear publicly in anything close to the state in which he appeared at the debate 15 days ago, the race is almost certainly over. Even if Biden is even slightly out of it or not energetic or confuses some names, well, that’s a problem.

One quick piece of evidence to prove that point: Biden said “Vice President Trump” when he meant “Vice President Harris” yesterday. In a vacuum, no big deal. But given the context about age and Biden’s competence, Republicans immediately spread it like wildfire on social media. And that flub was at — or close to — the top of most media reports on the press conference.

It’s a hell of a way to live. And, to Himes’ point, not the way a major party should go into a general election in which the stakes are incredibly high. (Whether you think Trump as president would destroy democracy — I don’t — there’s no question a Trump presidency would look wildly different than a Biden presidency.)

And yet, here we are. And we are where we are not because most elected Democrats don’t agree with Himes — they do! — but because they lack the, um, bravery to come out and say so publicly.

Which means that they are passively signing up for the daily stress of watching and wishing and hoping that Biden doesn’t have another moment — or moments — in which he looks old and out of it.

What a nightmare.

2. Trump nears VP pick

Donald Trump shed a little more light Friday on the timing of his vice presidential pick in an interview with Clay Travis and Buck Sexton on their popular podcast.

“I’d love to do it during the convention, which would be you know, or just slightly before the convention, like Monday, love to do it on Tuesday or Wednesday, actually, but for a lot of complex reasons that you people understand, pretty much don’t do that,” Trump told the duo.

What he is referring to there is the fact that there is a vice presidential roll call vote — a formality — on Monday night.

Trump also admitted what we have all known for a while now: He’s basically running this VP selection process like an episode of his reality show — calling it “a highly sophisticated version of 'The Apprentice.’”

And, confirming something else I’ve long argued about Trump, he made clear in the interview that, ultimately, he is going to trust his gut with the choice — describing the pick as “more of an instinct” than anything else.

(Sidebar: Back in 2018, during his presidency, Trump proclaimed: “I have a gut and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”)

Trump told Sexton and Travis that he has narrowed the potential picks to just four: Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Vance appears to be the favorite heading into the weekend — not least because we learned that Donald Trump Jr. is scheduled to speak directly before the VP pick at next week’s Republican convention. Don Jr. and Vance are close friends and the former president’s eldest son has been pushing the Ohio Senator for the job.

I still think, of those final three, Burgum is the safest choice. Which probably guarantees Trump won’t pick him!

3. Friday livestream!

I answered a ton of question over at my YouTube channel today. Check it out! And subscribe! (Also, the thumbnail image of me isn’t great 😂😂😂)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“There is no member of Congress who would have any knowledge of any conversation that Speaker Pelosi would have with President Obama. Anyone who says they do is not speaking the truth.” — Nancy Pelosi’s office, not exactly disputing this CNN story

ONE GOOD CHART

Many Democrats decry Donald Trump’s proposed hard-line immigration policies. But, a majority of the public now want immigration to be decreased, according to Gallup.

SONG OF THE DAY

Sturgill Simpson just released a new album under the name “Johnny Blue Skies.” Whatever he calls himself, he makes amazing music. The album is called “Passage Du Desir.” This is the first track on it: “Swamp of Sadness.”

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