CHRIS CRUCIAL: Is the 2024 playing field getting bigger?

PLUS: The best pollsters!

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1. Swing(ish) states?

If you’ve been reading me for any period of time, you know that I think there are 6 swing states in the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

And, within that six, I think there are two subgroups: States that currently lean Trump (AZ, GA and NV) and states that are pure toss ups (MI, WI and PA).

I still believe that those six states will decide the next president. They will get the lion’s share of attention from the two campaigns. They will see the most ad spending by the candidates and their affiliated super PACs.

But, I read something today by Amy Walter, the head of the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan handicapping service, that made me think that maybe — just maybe — the number of swing states could grow rather than shrink in these final five months.

The headline is this: The Cook Report is moving Virginia and New Mexico from “solid Democrat” states to “likely Democrat” ones.

Explaining the moves, Amy writes:

Right now, the FiveThirtyEight polling average finds Trump leading the national vote by about one point. That would represent a five-point shift in his direction since 2020, when he lost the popular vote by four points. In other words, the overall political environment today is five points worse for Biden than it was back in November of 2020.

When you appreciate that reality, it’s not so strange to see Biden leading by single digits (or tied) in states that he carried by double digits last time around. The most recent New York poll from Siena, for example, puts Biden’s lead in the state at nine points, 14 points lower than his 2020 margin of 23 points.

Her broader point is that the map — and the national popular vote — is more likely to look like 2016 than 2020. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by just under 3 million votes over Trump. In 2020, Biden won by 7 million.

Now, Clinton won New Mexico (by 5 points) and Virginia (by 4.9 points) in 2016. But, in both instances, that margin was far closer than Biden enjoyed in 2020. (Biden won New Mexico by 11 points and Virginia by 10.)

As Amy notes:

Virginia and New Mexico are the only two states in our Solid Democrat column that Biden carried by 11 points or less in 2020. Given the current polling, they are now in the mid-single digit range and, as such, move into the Likely Democrat column. Though we believe both are at low risk of flipping to Trump, they are no longer the “gimmes” a Solid Democrat rating suggests. 

If you believe that the electorate is 5-ish points more favorable to Trump this time around versus 2020, that would mean a state like Minnesota, which Biden won by 7 points last time around, could wind up being a real swing state this fall. Ditto New Hampshire where Biden also won by 7 points in 2020.

And, it could — BIG emphasis on could — make places like New Mexico and Virginia more competitive for Republicans than they have been in more than a decade.

Democrats counter that Biden too could expand the playing field — specifically pointing out the closeness of Florida at this point.

Several recent polls have shown Trump with a lead between 4-6 points, which is lower than his average edge in the state — which is almost 9 points, according to 538.

Maybe? Worth keeping in mind: Trump won Florida by 3.5 points in 2020 — so if you believe that Biden can win there, you have to think the overall electorate will be at least 3.6 points more friendly to the incumbent than it was four years ago.

So, could we be talking about Minnesota or New Hampshire as the 7th swing state in a month or two? Or even Virginia, New Mexico or Florida?

Honestly, I am still pretty skeptical. I could totally see Trump getting within 3-ish points in Minnesota. But does his campaign want to spend money there that they could spend in, say, Pennsylvania instead?

Maybe they will have enough money to do both. But usually campaign spending is a zero-sum game: Dumping a bunch of money in one place means you don’t spend that money elsewhere.

I’ll stick to my belief that we have 6 swing states right now. But, change is a constant in politics. So we need to keep an eye on the states I mentioned above to see if the movement continues….

2. Pollsters, graded

I’ve long made the point that all polling isn’t equal. As in: There are some pollsters who have a long track record of adhering to best practices, being transparent about how they do what they do and, when they do get it wrong, admitting it. And there are others who, well, don’t do any of that.

I have long kept my own private list of pollsters I trust. But, it’s not a scientific list — it’s just people who, over time, I have seen get it right a lot more than they get it wrong.

Now, however, Nate Silver, who writes the terrific “Silver Bulletin” Substack, has put together a data-backed list of the best pollsters. (I am of the mind that J. Ann Selzer is the single best pollster in the country. Nate’s data backs that up.)

It’s invaluable. Bookmark this post.

3. What Joe Knows

I have seen a lot of talk in the comments section of late about whether it’s too late to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for president. I will have MUCH more to say about that soon in this space but, in the meantime, I made a video for my YouTube channel on one BIG reason Biden decided to run again: He doesn’t (really) think Kamala Harris can beat Donald Trump.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

"I said three years ago, right after the Capitol was attacked, that I would support our nominee, regardless of who it was, including him.” — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on his continued support for former president Donald Trump, with whom he hasn’t spoken since 2020.

ONE GOOD CHART

The world, writ large, has considerably more confidence in Joe Biden than Donald Trump to do the “right thing” in terms of foreign policy. That’s according to new data from Pew.

SONG OF THE DAY

Bonny Light Horseman is the super group you probably don’t know. It’s Anais Mitchell, the singer-songwriter who also wrote the musical “Hadestown,” Eric D. Johnson, who has played with the Fruit Bats and The Shins, and Josh Kaufman, who has done stints with The National, Hiss Golden Messenger and Josh Ritter. The band has a new DOUBLE album out called “Keep Me On Your Mind/See You Free.” This is “I Know You Know” from it.

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