CHRIS CRUCIAL: Is Trump *actually* forever? 🤔

PLUS: Democrats search for a chair 🪑

In 62 days, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. I will be here bringing you everything you need to know between now and then — and over his four years as president.

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1. Trump 2028?

Any time I find myself writing or talking or tweeting about the next election — and it happens a few times a week — someone chimes in with some version of this: There aren’t going to be any more elections because Donald Trump is going to just stay in office beyond 2028.

Which is a take!

But, like, I don’t see it?

Start here: Yes, Trump has repeatedly “joked” about staying in office beyond the Constitutionally-mandated two-term limit.

Addressing House Republicans following his victory two weeks ago, Trump told them “I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’”

The New York Times helpfully noted that the assembled Republicans “appeared to take it as a joke.”

And, he has a loooong history of making this same “joke.” As some guy named [squints] “Chris Cillizza” wrote back in 2019(!): “President Donald Trump sure does have a strange sense of humor. Take his regular ‘jokes’ about the possibility of extending his time in office beyond the Constitutionally-mandated two four-year terms.”

Here’s the thing: If Trump could snap his fingers and be president for life, would he do it? You bet he would!

But, it just isn’t that easy.

The 22nd Amendment is pretty clear on this. Here’s the actual text:

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

It seems to me pretty airtight that Trump couldn’t — under that amendment — actively seek another term.

What he would need to do instead would be to seek a change in the Constitution. Which is a hugely onerous process. A vote to change the presidential term limits included in the 22nd Amendment would need to pass the House and Senate by a two-thirds vote in each chamber.

There is NO way that will happen. And, even if it did, to ratify the change to the Constitution would require the votes of three-quarters of the country’s state legislatures.

No. Way. In. Hell.

But but but — what if Trump ignores all of that and simply tries to STAY in office? As in, January 20, 2029 comes and he refuses to leave the White House? (This is the scenario lots of Democrats tell me is going to happen.)

Again, the Constitution is clear here — the 20th Amendment in particular. It reads:

The terms of the President and the Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

Which means that at 12:01 pm on January 20, 2029, Trump will no longer be president. JD Vance will be. Or Gavin Newsom. Or Gretchen Whitmer. Or Josh Shapiro. Or someone we haven’t even heard of yet.

But not Donald Trump. And the new president will be able — if necessary — to order the removal of Trump from the White House.

“After the new president was inaugurated, he would call on the Secret Service or the military to escort the old president out of the White House,” historian Bruce Kuklick said in January 2021. “And it would happen.”

To me, that feels pretty open and shut. Is it possible that Trump works out a deal with the military to stay in office — and to ignore the next president’s orders? I mean, I guess? But that feels more like the stuff of a Netflix show — which I would totally watch! — than reality.

I know Democrats — and Never Trumpers — are very scared about what Trump will do over the next four years. I get it. But I think the he’s-going-to-stay-in-office-forever thing is simply a flight of fancy.

2. The next Democratic leader

Politics abhors a vacuum.

Out of power at the White House, the Senate and the House levels — and with the next presidential election four long years away — ambitious Democrats are leaping into the race to lead the party in the near term.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison, after overseeing across-the-board losses earlier this month, isn’t expected to run for the job again (and wouldn’t win if he did).

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley was the first one into the DNC pool, announcing his intentions via a New York Times sitdown on Sunday.

“We face enormous challenges and a lot of soul-searching,” he told the Times. “We need to focus on fixing the problem and not the blame.”

O’Malley, who is currently the commissioner of the Social Security Administration, also called for an after-action report detailing what went wrong for Democrats in this election.

He had the race to himself for less than 24 hours — as Minnesota party chair Ken Martin jumped into the contest on Tuesday morning.

“I believe Democrats can win again in every place, every election, and at every level of government—from school boards to the White House,” Martin said in a statement announcing his bid. “I believe that because I've built a state party in Minnesota that has won over and over in America’s heartland, including every statewide election during my nearly 14-year tenure.”

The DNC race isn’t likely to begin in earnest until Rahm Emanuel, currently the Biden Administration’s Ambassador to Japan, makes clear whether he will seek the job. Emanuel, who served in Congress, as mayor of Chicago and as Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, is reportedly considering the position.

Liberals have long loathed Emanuel for his win-at-all-costs approach to politics. In the wake of the reporting about his interest in the DNC job, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez took to X to express her discontent:

(Don’t get the fish head reference? Read this.)

Two other prominent names mentioned as possible DNC candidates are former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler.

Roughly 450 DNC members will decide their next leader in early 2025.

3. Kamala 2028?

A new poll — from the terrific Kristen Soltis Anderson at Echelon Insights — has stirred up a HUGE amount of chatter online. It tests the 2028 Democratic field — and shows Vice President Kamala Harris WAY out in front of the rest of the would-be aspirants.

Republicans have seized on it as evidence that Democrats are preparing to make the same mistakes they made in 2024.

It actually shows nothing of the sort.

I explain what the poll tells us (and what it doesn’t!) in a new video on my YouTube channel today. Watch it — and SUBSCRIBE. (I am almost to 50,000 subscribers!)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I submit that Congress would be more effective if every member slept in their office because there is inherent value in getting to know people across the aisle as people rather than as just the opposition.” — Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter with a radical suggestion to foster bipartisanship

ONE GOOD CHART

If Donald Trump follows through on his pledge to round up the 11 million people in the United States illegally, it would have a profound impact on the economy. This chart from Axios shows the industries that would be hardest hit.

SONG OF THE DAY

Dwight Yoakam hasn’t released new music since 2016. The wait is over! His latest album “Brighter Days” came out late last week. I am listening my way through it but the first single is “I Don’t Know How to Say Goodbye” with Post Malone.

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