CHRIS CRUCIAL: Joe Biden doesn't care about your damn polls! 😠

PLUS: Republican chaos in Nebraska

Welcome to Chris Crucial. This nightly newsletter — in which I summarize all the political news you need to know from the day that was — is for paid subscribers only. Check out my mission statement on why you should invest in me. It’s $6 a month/$60 for the year! 👇

1. Polls, polls polls

Joe Biden and his team want to make one thing perfectly clear: They don’t care about polls — like the New York Times/Siena College ones — that show the incumbent behind in the vast majority of swing states.

Here’s Axios on that:

President Biden doesn't believe his bad poll numbers, and neither do many of his closest advisers, according to people familiar with the matter.

The dismissiveness of the poor polling is sincere, not public spin, according to Democrats who have spoken privately with the president and his team.

That bedrock belief has informed Biden's largely steady-as-she-goes campaign — even as many Democrats outside the White House are agitating for the campaign to change direction, given that Biden is polling well behind where he was four years ago.

The public polling simply doesn't reflect the president's support, they say.

That will, undoubtedly, hearten some (many?) of my readers. Good! Ignore the polls! Democrats keep over-performing them anyway! The election isn’t until November! Stop bedwetting! (in the infamous words of Democratic strategist Jim Messina.)

I get the desire to believe that polls are junk. That they are missing something fundamental about the election dynamic. That ultimately Biden will win.

And I have said, repeatedly, that I believe this election is going to be very close. Any one poll — or even a bunch of polls — don’t change that basic fact.

But, I still think it is a MAJOR mistake to assume that just because the polls don’t look how you want them to look, they must be wrong. Because, well, they are almost certainly not.

Let’s just take the Times/Siena polls as an example. As a reminder, here’s what they found in 6 swing states:

Arizona: Trump 49%, Biden 42%

Georgia: Trump 49%, Biden 39%

Michigan: Trump 49%, Trump 42%

Nevada: Trump 50%, Biden 38%

Pennsylvania: Trump 47%, Biden 44%

Wisconsin: Biden 47%, Trump 45%

Now, here are the Real Clear Politics polling averages in those states:

Arizona: Trump +5

Georgia: Trump +4.6

Michigan: Trump +.8

Nevada: Trump +6

Pennsylvania: Trump +2

Wisconsin: Trump +.6

Generally similar, right? Directionally at least? Trump leads in three states (Arizona, Georgia and Nevada) and it’s basically a toss up in three more (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.)

That is not a mirage. It is not one bad poll. It is not the media being out to get Biden.

The simple fact is that if the election were held today, Joe Biden would lose. Which means the Biden team needs to change something.