CHRIS CRUCIAL: Joe Biden is in deep 💩

PLUS: RFK Jr. knows nothing about his VP pick

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1. The Biden approval problem

On Tuesday afternoon, I came across this headline from Reuters:

As you might guess, the story below it had very little good news for President Joe Biden. Here’s a taste:

U.S. President Joe Biden's public approval rating this month fell to its lowest level in almost two years, tying the lowest reading of his presidency in a warning sign for his reelection effort, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.

The four-day poll, which closed on Monday, showed just 36% of Americans approve of Biden's job performance as president, down from 38% in April. It was a return to the lowest approval rating of his presidency, last seen in July 2022. While this month's drop was within the poll's 3 percentage point margin of error, it could bode poorly for Biden as he faces off with Republican Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 presidential election.

So, just to cut to the chase: With 168 days — five and a half months — to go before the November 5 election, Biden has matched the lowest approval rating of his presidency in Reuters-Ipsos polling.

Regular readers know that I caution against putting too much stock in any single poll — no matter how good or bad it appears to be for your side.

Seeking to follow my own rule, I went searching for some historical markers — aiming to compare Biden’s current job approval numbers with some past presidents at this same time in their term.

And, luckily, Gallup had just what I was looking for. Let’s look at this chart — and then get into the analysis:

Now, let’s overlay those numbers with what happened in the subsequent presidential election:

Dwight Eisenhower 73.2% approval (WON — 457 electoral votes)

Ronald Reagan 54.5% approval (WON — 525 electoral votes)

Richard Nixon 53.7% approval (WON — 520 electoral votes)

Bill Clinton 53% approval (WON — 379 electoral votes)

George W. Bush 51% approval (WON — 286 electoral votes)

Jimmy Carter 47.7% approval (LOST — 49 electoral votes)

Donald Trump 46.8% approval (LOST — 232 electoral votes)

Barack Obama 45.9% (WON — 332 electoral votes)

George H.W. Bush 41.8% (LOST — 168 electoral votes)

Joe Biden 38.7% approval (????)

You will notice that among those presidents with approval ratings of 50% or higher at this point in their presidencies, all six won. And that among presidents with approval ratings lower than 50%, three out of four lost.