CHRIS CRUCIAL: Joe Biden just keeps getting less popular ⬇️

PLUS: A Hochul primary?

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1. People do not like Joe Biden

Absence from the public eye has not made Americans’ hearts grow fonder for President Joe Biden.

Polling released post-election suggests that Biden is less popular at this point of his presidency than all but one modern chief executive — and is in danger of setting (or coming close to setting) a record for unpopularity.

In a Monmouth poll released earlier this month, just 35% approved of Biden. An AP-NORC survey released around the same time pegged his approval at 39%. Marist had it at 40%, And Gallup? Just 37% approval for Biden.

According to Gallup’s (invaluable) Presidential Job Approval Center, that 37% approval rating for Biden puts him in worse stead than every recent one-term president other than Jimmy Carter:

For those of you who don’t like charts (or for whom that is too small ), here’s the breakdown:

Biden: 37% approval

Donald Trump: 43% approval

George H.W. Bush 43% approval

Jimmy Carter: 31% approval

Biden may well be saved from entering history as the least popular modern president as he leaves office by the man who will replace him in office. Trump’s approval rating collapsed to 34% in the final Gallup poll of his 1st term, which was in the field during the January 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol and its aftermath. (Carter also ended with a 34% approval score — and that was an improvement for him!)

What accounts for the fact that Biden’s numbers — which improved modestly after he said in July that he would not seek a 2nd term — have, again, sunk?

I think it’s because the post-2024 narrative has laid a whole lot of blame at Biden’s feet. Democratic strategist types — including many of those in the upper echelons of Kamala Harris’ campaign — have suggested that Biden put her in an un-winnable situation by a) running for a 2nd term at all and b) waiting too late to get out of the race.

It hasn’t helped that Biden has been largely absent in the six weeks post-election — although he appears committed to doing a bit more in public in these final weeks.

Biden, speaking at a holiday reception for the Democratic National Committee on Sunday, insisted he would stay engaged in the process.

“That's the road ahead, to never give up, to keep the faith,” he said. “To know, that what we're doing matters. I know I'm going to stay engaged. I know Kamala and Jill and Doug are gonna as well, and I know you will. We need you badly. The country needs you badly.”

I mean, maybe. But, make no mistake: Democrats want nothing to do with a president as unpopular as Biden is. They want him off the national stage as quickly as possible — so that they can begin the work of moving on and re-branding the party around younger faces.

The lone consolation for Biden? If past is prologue, the longer he is out of office, the more people will remember only the stuff they liked about him.

George W. Bush left office after two terms with just 34% of adults saying they approved of the job he had done.

By 2023, 57%(!) of Americans approved of Bush!

So Biden’s got that going for him. Which is nice.

2. Hochul phone home

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is politically wounded — and the buzzards challengers are circling.

Hochul, who took over from embattled Gov. Andrew Cuomo in August 2021, was elected to a full first term just over a year later — beating then Rep. Lee Zeldin in a surprisingly close race. (She won 53% to 47%.)

That, in hindsight, appears to be the apex of Hochul’s time as governor of the Empire State.

Hochul has never been particularly popular with voters in the state — as evidenced by beating Zeldin by just 6 points — and has been plagued by problem after problem over the last year or two.

She bore the blunt of the blame for congestion pricing in New York City, eventually suspending it indefinitely in June. She’s struggled to get along with entrenched Democratic legislators in the state capitol. Her first lieutenant governor resigned in 2022 amid federal bribery charges. This fall, her former deputy chief of staff was arrested on suspicion of being an unregistered agent for the Chinese government.

As you might guess, there’s been a major effect on her political outlook from the various struggles and scandals.

Just 4 in 10 voters said they had a favorable opinion of her in the latest Siena College poll earlier this month. While those numbers are actually an improvement for Hochul from a few months ago, Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted: “Hochul has not had a positive favorability rating since January of this year and she has never had 50% or more voters view her favorably.”

Enter Antonio Delgado, Hochul’s current LG and a former Member of Congress. “I definitely plan to be a part of the future of New York,” Delgado told the New York Times for a story that ran over the weekend. “I’m ready to serve in whatever capacity New Yorkers think is best.”

👀

And then there’s this from the Times story:

Many lieutenant governors toil in the deep shadows to serve their state governors. But Mr. Delgado has apparently gone rogue, fueling speculation that he may seek to challenge Ms. Hochul’s re-election bid in 2026.

He has done little to tamp down the rumors, telling donors that he plans on running for a statewide office. In an interview, he said that he had no “intention” of challenging Ms. Hochul in 2026, but also allowed that he planned to “stay ready” and that he wanted to be an “independent actor.”

👀👀

Hochul has said she is planning to run for a 2nd term. Of course, in that same interview — which she gave over the summer — she said this of Delgado: “We communicate regularly. He is doing a phenomenal job traveling the state promoting some of his signature initiatives. So I’m very happy with what we're doing now.”

The relative narrowness of Hochul’s 2022 win coupled with Donald Trump’s surprisingly strong 2024 showing in the state — he lost by 12 — and her persistent polling weakness may attract a real Republican challenge as well.

Rep. Mike Lawler, who has represented a Hudson Valley seats since 2023, is clearly interested in the contest. “I’ve now won three times in two-to-one Democratic districts because I knew what my pathway was, and we executed,” Lawler told National Review last month, adding that the governor’s race is “something we’ll look at in the coming months, and whether or not there’s a viable pathway.”

3. Me + Matt Lewis

On Monday, I went on Matt Lewis’ podcast to talk Pete Hegseth, the conservative nature of cable TV, God and life after lay-off. Yes, we covered all that stuff!

You can check it out here. And make sure to subscribe to Matt’s YouTube channel.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Call me crazy, but we should reduce the deficit and not pass stupid policies.” — Texas GOP Rep. Chip Roy is not a fan of the legislation to keep the government funded for three more months

ONE GOOD CHART

We’re #1! In….murders 😞

SONG OF THE DAY

Waxahatchee + Tiny Desk = bliss

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