Chris Crucial: Joe Biden's electoral map problem

PLUS: A Pennsylvania primary to watch!

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1. It’s the map, stupid: Two things are currently true about the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. First, Trump’s numbers have dipped and Biden’s have risen — putting them in a virtual dead heat nationally. Second, the electoral college map has a slight Trumpian tilt to it — still.

It’s that second point that I think deserves more attention because, well, the electoral college is how we pick presidents. Which is why I read with significant interest a piece over the weekend in the New York Times from Democratic strategists Doug Sosnik.

Here’s the key bit from Doug:

While polls show the race for president is tightening, Joe Biden still has a narrower and more challenging path to winning the election than Donald Trump. The reason is the Electoral College: My analysis of voter history and polling shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though recent developments in Arizona improve Mr. Biden’s chances.

I think that is exactly right.

Let’s take a look at where a few handicapping outlets put the race right now.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has 235 electoral votes leaning, likely or solidly in the Trump camp as compared to 226 for Biden. They list 77 electoral votes in 6 states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) as pure toss ups.

Inside Elections has a similar prediction. They give Trump 235 electoral votes to 232 for Biden. They have five states — and 71 electoral votes — listed as toss ups: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They rate Nevada as “tilting” toward Biden.

Let’s, for the sake of argument, say there are 7 potential swing states — all the ones we mentioned above plus North Carolina where Democrats believe they have a chance.

Biden’s problem becomes more clear when you zoom in on just those states. Take North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona as examples.

In North Carolina, the Democratic presidential nominee has won a total of once — Barack Obama in 2008 — in the last 10 presidential races.

In Arizona, the Democratic nominee has won twice sine 1980 — Bill Clinton in 1996 (with a major assist from third party candidate Ross Perot, who got 8% of the vote) and Biden in 2020.

In Georgia, the Democratic nominee has won 3 times in the last 10 races — native son Jimmy Carter in 1980, Bill Clinton in 1992 and Joe Biden in 2020.

Now, past performance isn’t always indicative of future results. Demographics in states change. People move in and move out. Certain candidates have more appeal than others.

But, overall, how a state HAS voted is, generally speaking, a good guide to how it WILL vote.