CHRIS CRUCIAL: Kamala Harris is in FAR worse polling shape than Joe Biden was 📊

PLUS: New numbers in FL, TX and MT Senate!

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1. Four years ago….

A “So What” reader sent me a very simple question today: How is Kamala Harris doing in national and swing state polling compared to how Joe Biden was doing at this exact point in the 2020 race?

Which seems like a very obvious question that I should have already known the answer to. But, I didn’t! And I wanted to know — so I went digging.

Thankfully, the 538 site makes this comparison relatively easy — with day-by-day polling averages from 2020 and 2024.

I am going to go through a bunch of poll numbers below but here’s the big takeaway: Nationally and in virtually every swing state, Harris is underperforming — often considerably — where Biden was at this point in the 2020 race.

Which, and please hear this, does NOT mean she is going to lose. It simply means that at this point in the 2020 race, Biden was regarded as a clear favorite to beat Trump. Which he did — albeit more narrowly than many people (and polls) expected.

Let’s start with the national polls.

On October 10, 2020, Biden was ahead by 10 points in the polling average:

Harris, on the other hand, is currently ahead by 2.5 points — a lead a quarter of the size of Biden’s.

Biden was also much further ahead in the Blue Wall states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — than Harris is today.

Here’s the Wisconsin comparison, with Biden up more than 7 points and Harris ahead by less than a point:

The story in Pennsylvania is very similar. Biden was ahead by 7 points on October 10, 2020; Harris has an edge of less than a point.

Michigan is even worse for Harris. Biden led by 8.2 points on this day in 2020. Harris now leads by — stop me if you’ve heard this before — less than a point.

Outside of the Blue Wall states, the comparison to Biden 2020 is better for Harris — but still not good. Take Arizona. At this point Biden was ahead of Trump by 3.8 points; Trump now leads Harris by 1.5 points.

Again, the numbers are the numbers. And the fact is that Biden was in a considerably stronger position at this point in the 2020 race than Harris is today.

Of course, no two races are the same. We were in the middle of a worldwide pandemic at this point in 2020. There was virtually no in-person campaigning in the final month of that race. Democrats did their voter ID and turnout virtually; Republicans did theirs in-person — and it clearly worked better.

Harris is widely seen as having the better — and better financed — ground game this time around.

But, what’s clear is that Democrats were better off — electorally speaking — four years ago than they are today.

2. Can Democrats pull a Senate surprise?

Democrats have made much in recent days of the possibility that they might be able to eke out an upset against either Florida Sen. Rick Scott or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — and thereby raise their chances of holding the majority come 2025.

New polling by the New York Times and Siena College out Thursday suggests that while both races are within single digits, the Democratic challengers both have work to do.

In Florida, Scott is leading former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 49% to 40% while Cruz is up on Rep. Colin Allred 48%-44% in Texas.

In both states, the incumbent senators are running behind Donald Trump’s performance. In Florida, Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris 55%-41%; in Texas, Trump leads Harris 50%-44%.

Both races, at least at this point, look close. But there’s nothing in the Times/Siena numbers — either at the presidential or Senate level — that makes me think Cruz or Scott is in deep trouble.

Speaking of deep trouble, Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is very much in it. The Times/Siena poll puts him down 8 points to GOP nominee Tim Sheehy. And the state is clearly going to go for Trump at the top of the ticket. The former president takes 57% to just 40% for Harris.

Taken as a whole, the polling news is not good for Senate Democrats. The West Virginia seat held by retiring Sen. Joe Manchin is already lost. Montana looks worse for the party with each passing day. Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin are all tight.

And, as noted above, Democrats don’t seem likely to pull an upset on Cruz or Scott. Nebraska, where Sen. Deb Fischer is running against independent Dan Osborn (there is no Democratic nominee) is interesting but count me as skeptical that voters in that ruby red state aren’t going to send an incumbent Republican back to the Senate.

As my friend Scott Tranter of Decision Desk HQ reminds me, Republicans have a MASSIVE voter registration edge in Nebraska:

In short: Everything is pointing to a Republican-controlled Senate in 2025 — no matter what happens in the presidential race.

3. Substack Election Dialogues (and me!)

Exciting news! I am participating in Substack’s Election Dialogues series!

Next Thursday at noon eastern, I am going to do a live video chat — via the Substack app — with the one and only

Taylor Lorenz

, who recently left the Washington Post to start her own Substack:

User Mag

.

The subject of our chat: “Is 2024 the End of Mainstream Media as We Know It?” It’s something I have a LOT of thoughts about — and have personally lived through the transition from mainstream media to independent content creator.

I think it will be a great conversation. Taylor does not pull punches — which is why I like her!

You can sign up to be alerted when we go live here:

I will remind you as we get closer to the day. But take advantage of this very cool opportunity! And check out all the other Election Dialogues on the schedule!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Look, and this is on both sides, you have some people thinking government can do this and others think it is because of fossil fuels.” — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis both-sidesing crazy weather conspiracies

ONE GOOD CHART

This video — a chart on defense spending by the U.S. compared to other countries in the world over 5 decades — is stunning stuff.

SONG OF THE DAY

One of my favorite albums of the last 5 years was Florist’s self-titled 2022 release. So it made me VERY happy to find new music from the band. This is “This Was A Gift.”

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