Chris Crucial: Manchin OUT!

PLUS: A stunning chart on guns in America

Welcome to Chris Crucial, my nightly summary of the political news of the day. This is a labor of love — but it ain’t easy! So I would VERY MUCH appreciate it if you would consider becoming a paid subscriber to this newsletter. It’s only $5 a month or $50 for the whole year!

1. The centrist stands down: After months of milking the spotlight considering his political future, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin said Friday that he will not run for president as an independent in November.

“I just don’t think it’s the right time,” Manchin said. “Democracy is at stake right now.”

Which, true!

It’s the second body blow for those — led by the group No Labels — who have been desperately trying to recruit a centrist ticket into the presidential race of late.

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, announced last Friday that rather than run for president, he would instead seek an open Senate seat in his home state.

That leaves No Labels, which has been very secretive about its process of finding a candidate, without two of its biggest names. “No Labels is currently speaking with several exceptional leaders about serving on the presidential Unity ticket,” said a spokesman for the group in the wake of the Manchin announcement.

It’s worth noting here that there are already THREE third party candidates in the race: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West. RFK Jr. is running the strongest of the three — by a lot.

My general sense is that while a possible Manchin bid drew a ton of attention, I am not sure that it would have made a huge difference in the race. I see very little evidence that in our polarized world, a centrist ticket has much of a place. And, my guess is that Manchin would have pulled from Democrats and Republicans roughly equally — meaning that him not running isn’t a boon to either Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

2. Mitt isn’t MAGA: Unlike many Republican elected officials who have criticized Donald Trump only to eventually endorse or vote for him (or both), Utah Sen. Mitt Romney said Friday he won’t be casting a ballot for the billionaire businessman in November.

“I will not be voting for President Trump,” Romney told reporters in Utah. “I must admit that I find sexual assault to be a line I will not cross in the people I select to be my president.”

In May 2023, Trump was found liable by a jury for sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll, who alleged that Trump had raped her in a New York City department store in the 1990s. He was later ordered to pay $83.3 million for defaming Carroll in regards her accusation.

Romney, who is retiring from the Senate in 2025, has been unflinching in his criticism of Trump’s leadership in the party. In his role as a Senator, he voted to convict Trump twice during impeachment trials — once for Trump’s strong-arming of Ukraine and the second time for his role in January 6.

Romney’s independence from the Trump-ing of the GOP has won him many fans among Democrats. Manchin, prior to ruling himself out of an independent presidential race Friday, had floated the idea of Romney as his running mate.

It has also made him an enemy of the MAGA movement. Last fall Trump called Romney “a total loser that only a mother could love.”

Another frequent Trump critic — former Attorney General Bill Barr — had his own thoughts Friday about the coming presidential race. “Voting for Trump is playing Russian roulette with the country,” said Barr. “Voting for Biden is outright national suicide.”

Welp.

3. Livestream!: Today I conducted an experiment — a livestream at my YouTube channel where I took questions from subscribers (to Substack and to YouTube) for almost an hour! It was fun! And I think I am going to start doing it every Friday.

If you missed it, check it out below. And make sure to subscribe to my YouTube channel too.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I’m not going anywhere.” — Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, speaking to a crowd in Texas today. She told the crowd she plans to head to Michigan, which is set to vote February 27, the day after the February 24 South Carolina primary.

ONE GOOD CHART

The shootings at the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl parade is yet another reminder that we have a gun violence problem in this country. In fact, we have more guns than we have people. Yes, really. (Read more about this on Vox.)

SONG OF THE DAY

Grandaddy has been around for a long time. The band was initially formed in 1992 but has been recording on and off — and breaking up on and off — since then. Jason Lytle, one of the founding members, has just released a new album under the Grandaddy name. It’s called “Blu Wav.” I dig it.