Chris Crucial: Nikki Haley misdiagnoses Trump

PLUS: Biden's 💰 haul

Every night, I bring you the political news you need from the day that was. I call it “Chris Crucial” — and you can sign up to get it in your inbox by clicking the button below! Easy peasy!

1. Nikki’s convenient narrative: Nikki Haley drew scads of attention when her campaign announced on Monday that she would give a state of the 2024 race speech today. Was this the moment she bowed to the inevitable and dropped out?

Nope! Haley made clear right at the top that not only was she staying in the race through Saturday’s South Carolina primary but that she is going to go through, at least, Super Tuesday on March 5. “What is the rush” she asked. “Why is everybody so panicked about me having to get out of this race?”

While most news outlets led with Haley’s pronouncement that she would stay in the race, I was drawn to something else she said about her opponent Donald Trump. Here it is:

“He's getting meaner and more offensive by the day...He's gotten more unstable and more unhinged...He's completely distracted...And everything is about him. He's so obsessed with his demons in the past that he can't focus on the future Americans deserve.”

Which, eh, no.

I get what Haley is going for. She is suggesting Trump has gotten worse over the course of the campaign as a way to justify the baffling approach she has taken to attacking him.

For the first year(ish) of the campaign, Haley would almost never mention Trump on the campaign trail — even though he was then (as he is now) an overwhelming favorite for the nomination. To the extent she criticized Trump at all, it was in the broadest and most passive of terms; “chaos follows him” was Haley’s preferred phrase.

In the last month or so, however, Haley has significantly ramped up her rhetoric on Trump. Which, sort of inexplicable because, well, the race is effectively over now. (A new USA Today poll out Tuesday showed Trump ahead of Haley 63%-35% in South Carolina.)

But, if you buy Haley’s spin, it all starts to make more sense. She is taking on Trump more directly now because he is getting worse — more extreme, more dangerous and more unelectable.

The problem? Trump has always been this person. It’s the one thing he’s consistent about. He said Ted Cruz’s dad was involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy! He refused to admit that he lost the 2020 election and then helped incite a riot at the U.S. Capitol! He said he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose any support! He is currently under four indictments! He has been found liable of sexual assault!

Like, sure, Trump has said — of late — that Russia should invade NATO allies who don’t pay into the organization. And called his political opponents “vermin.”

All of which is bad! But, it’s not new!

The truth is that Trump has always been this guy. Haley thought it behooved her, strategically, to ignore him — and now realizes that that is not a viable strategy. So she’s suggesting Trump has changed. But, really it’s her who has done the changing.

2. Biden’s cash haul: Even amid persistent whispers that Joe Biden needs to drop out of the 2024 race, the incumbent continues to rake in cash — and expand his financial edge over Donald Trump.

Last month, Biden raised $42 million and, according to his campaign, ended January with $130 million in the bank.

While Trump has yet to release his fundraising totals for January, his campaign reported $33 million on hand at the end of 2023 — a $100 million gap he is unlikely to have substantially closed in the space of a month.

It’s worth noting that if the 2020 Biden-Trump election is any indication, the Democrat is likely to have a cash edge over the Republican.

In that race, even as the challenger, Biden outraised Trump — bringing in more than $1 billion for his campaign. Trump collected $774 million. Total spending in the presidential race topped $5.7 billion.

The money haul is welcome news for Biden, who has labored for months under poor poll numbers and difficult-to-dismiss questions about his age. (He’s 81.) It suggests that plenty of donors — small and large — are willing to invest in him, which matters.

One caveat: Because both of these candidates are universally known by voters, spending on TV to introduce them — or tear down the other guy — may have less of a effect than in a race that is not between a president and a former president.

3. Me and The Bulwark: Last Thursday, I was the special guest for Mona Charen’s “Beg to Differ” podcast at The Bulwark.

We talked about the politics of immigration, the possibility (or impossibility) of replacing Biden on the ballot and I singled out Lindsey Graham for special scorn.

You can listen to it here.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Oh, I don't care.” — President Joe Biden when asked Tuesday whether he would rather run against Donald Trump or Nikki Haley in the fall.

ONE GOOD CHART

We are a dissatisfied nation — at least according to Gallup. The percentage of people saying they are “very satisfied” with their lives is as low as its been in more than a decade.

SONG OF THE DAY

No band is a) more productive or b) more consistently awesome than Big Thief. Which is why I am super interested to hear the new solo record — out next month — from the group’s lead singer Adrianne Lenkar.

She’s released a few tracks in advance of the full album coming out. My favorite is this one: “sadness as a gift.”