CHRIS CRUCIAL: RFK Jr. is right (about the debate)

PLUS: Aileen Cannon, call your office

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1. I can’t believe I’m saying this but….

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will NOT appear in the first presidential debate next week, missing out on the criteria that CNN, who is hosting the debate, set out for him.

Those criteria were as follows: 1) Four national polls in which he got 15% or more of the national vote and b) His name officially on the ballot in enough states to add up to 270 electoral votes.

Here’s what Kennedy said about not making the cut:

Let’s start with where I disagree with Kennedy. CNN didn’t do anything illegal in setting up qualifying criteria for candidates. Like, they are free to set up any rules they like! You don’t have to like them — I don’t — but it’s certainly not illegal for them to do so!

And yet dear reader, I have to tell you I agree with RFK Jr. much more than I disagree with him on this. I actually think RFK probably should be in the debate next week.

Let me make the case — using CNN’s qualifying criteria as a guide.

Kennedy had three polls that showed him at 15% nationally. He needed four. But what’s clear is that Kennedy has a sustained level of support that is WELL above what recent third party candidates have received.

Here’s Kennedy in the 538 polling average:

So he’s at 9.7% right now — and he’s consistently been around 10% for months now.

How does that compare to past 3rd party candidates?

In 2020, third party candidates got less than 2% combined of the national popular vote. In 2016, Gary Johnson was the leading 3rd party candidate — with 3.28% of the national vote. In 2012, Johnson took .99%. Even in 2000, when Ralph Nader got a huge amount of attention for his independent presidential bid, he took only 2.7% of the vote.

The point here is that, at 10% or so nationally, Kennedy is showing himself to be a much more serious getter of votes than any independent candidate for president since Ross Perot in 1992. And Perot was in the general election debates that year.

Which, I think, matters. No, I do not believe that Kennedy is going to win the White House — whether he is on the debate stage or not. But, I do think, from a historical polling perspective, he has shown that he is more credible — again, purely by the numbers — than any 3rd party candidate in three decades.

Then there is the issue of whether Kennedy is on enough state ballots to add up to 270 electoral votes.

Let me be clear: I think Kennedy and his team are overestimating the number of states he has already qualified for. (They say he is on 22 state ballots — and that those states add up to 310 electoral votes.)

But, the whole “is your name officially on the ballot” thing is a bit of a red herring. As PBS noted recently:

Biden and Trump have easily cleared the polling threshold but won’t be certified for the ballot until their parties formally nominate them later this summer. Both have secured enough delegates to lock in their nominations.

So, if we are being persnickety, Biden and Trump don’t have any guarantees they will be the name on the ballot this fall in states that add up to 270 electoral votes either.

Do I think it’s a guarantee that Kennedy will be on the ballot in every state this November? I do not. Do I think it is very likely he is on enough ballots to add up to 270 electoral votes? I absolutely do.

This chart via the Washington Post is a good guide to where RFK Jr. is — and where’s he’s going — in the fight to get on the ballot nationwide:

One more thing I think Kennedy is right about: Trump and Biden absolutely do NOT want him on the debate stage — and cut a deal outside of the Commission on Presidential Debates to make it virtually certain he wouldn’t be.

Why? Because Kennedy is a sort of free radical. Neither Trump nor Biden are totally sure what to make of him. Polling, too, is a mixed bag about who an ascendant Kennedy hurts more.

Politicians (and their campaigns) like to minimize risk. And RFK Jr. on the debate stage would be a major risk for Trump and Biden.

I get it! I also get why CNN wants it to be Trump vs Biden. They are the two people who have a credible chance to be president!

I am just saying this: RFK Jr. has a real and credible case that he’s done enough to be on the stage.

2. A Judge Cannon bombshell

Judge Aileen Cannon is in charge of the federal case involving Donald Trump’s retention of classified documents after leaving the White House.

If you’ve been following it at all, you know this: She has indefinitely postponed the trial, which now seems unlikely to happen before the November election.

And now this — from the New York Times:

Shortly after Judge Aileen M. Cannon drew the assignment in June 2023 to oversee former President Donald J. Trump’s classified documents case, two more experienced colleagues on the federal bench in Florida urged her to pass it up and hand it off to another jurist, according to two people briefed on the conversations.

The judges who approached Judge Cannon — including the chief judge in the Southern District of Florida, Cecilia M. Altonaga — each asked her to consider whether it would be better if she were to decline the high-profile case, allowing it to go to another judge, the two people said.

But Judge Cannon, who was appointed by Mr. Trump, wanted to keep the case and refused the judges’ entreaties. Her assignment raised eyebrows because she has scant trial experience and had previously shown unusual favor to Mr. Trump by intervening in a way that helped him in the criminal investigation that led to his indictment, only to be reversed in a sharply critical rebuke by a conservative appeals court panel.

The extraordinary and previously undisclosed effort by Judge Cannon’s colleagues to persuade her to step aside adds another dimension to the increasing criticism of how she has gone on to handle the case.

Uh, yeah.

For many people, the Times report will confirm something they have long suspected: Cannon is, at best, in way over her head and, at worst, actively playing a role to help Trump in the election.

That several more senior judges advised her that the case was not one that she was equipped to handle — given her decided lack of experience — and that Cannon rejected that advice should set off alarm bells.

Here’s the issue though: No matter what Cannon’s ultimate motives are, the outcome is the same. Trump is going to get what he wants, which is to ensure that a trial over his alleged mishandling of documents never comes in front of a court before the election.

And, if he wins, it will never come to trial at all. Trump would almost certainly dissolve special counsel Jack Smith’s office if he wins in November — a move that would eliminate both the classified documents case and Smith’s prosecution of Trump over his actions before and during the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

3. A Biden comeback?

This, from 538, is interesting:

In the last 5 national polls conducted in the 2024 presidential race. Joe Biden is either tied or (narrowly) ahead of Donald Trump. Which, I think, is evidence that the race, at the national level at least, has tightened some in the last few weeks (aka post-Trump conviction).

I weighed how big a shift this really is and what it all means as we approach next week’s debate in a video on my YouTube channel. If you aren’t a subscriber, become one!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“[Trump] has millions and millions of followers. ... All he had to do was say, 'The CDC is recommending masks. We know it's gonna save lives. Do it.' And he missed an opportunity.” — Anthony Fauci on “The View.”

ONE GOOD CHART

People in economically advanced countries are increasingly unhappy with how democracy is working, according to new data from Pew.

SONG OF THE DAY

The New York Times put out a list of its 40 best songs of 2024 so far. My favorite tune on their list is “Right Back to It” by Waxatchee and MJ Lenderman.

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