CHRIS CRUCIAL: The chart that launched 1,000 conspiracy theories

PLUS: Tim Scott is baaaaack!

In 73 days, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. I will be here bringing you everything you need to know between now and then — and over his four years in office.

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1. Turnout is just fine, thank you

No chart has sparked more conversation — and conspiracy theories — over the last 72 hours than this one from an X account with the handle “zerohedge,” which has 1.9 million followers:

“Zerohedge” is described as a “far-right libertarian” — and you can see what he is aiming at with the chart: Making a not-so-subtle suggestion that the 81 million votes that Joe Biden got in 2020 were somehow fraudulent.

The logic — at least if you took a fleeting glance at the chart — seems inescapable: Kamala Harris got 16 million votes less in 2024 than Biden did in 2020! Something had to be up! This is proof!

Weirdly, despite the source of this chart, lots and lots of Democrats seemed to latch onto it as well. No, they didn’t think Biden’s win with 81 million in 2020 was evidence of voter fraud. Rather they believed that 16 million Democrats had decided not to vote this time around. But, why! What happened!

Let me show you a little more of the chart/tweet:

Notice anything? Check out the circled area:

It was posted at 7:50 am on November 6. Early in the morning on the day after the election. When lots and lots and lots of votes still needed to be counted.

I just looked at the Cook Political Report’s national popular vote tracker — and here’s where it stood as of Friday afternoon:

Donald Trump: 73,461,425 votes (50.73%)

Kamala Harris: 69,124,371 votes (47.73%)

So, there’s that.

Then I went to the New York Times election results page. And I checked how much of the vote had been counted in some of the western states.

Here’s what I found:

• California: 58% of votes counted

• Arizona: 77% of votes counted

• Washington: 87% of votes counted

• Oregon: 81% of votes counted

And here’s the results (as of now) from each of those four states:

• California: Harris 58%, Trump 40%

• Arizona: Trump 52%, Harris 47%

• Washington: Harris 58%, Trump 39%

• Oregon: Harris 55%, Trump 42%

In three of those four states then, Harris is going to continue to add to her popular vote total. And in California, she’s going to add significantly; she already has 6.1 million votes with less than 60% of all votes in the state counted!

The point here is that the vote-counting is a) not done and b) likely to add many more votes to Harris’ total than to Trump’s. (The Times’ estimates that 91.8% of all votes nationally have been counted.)

Smarter people than me — like Decision Desk HQ’s Scott Tranter — are estimating turnout to end up around 158 million. Which is pretty damn close to the 158 million who voted in 2020!

And aside from the raw numbers, turnout as a percentage of voting age population in 2024 will be roughly what it was in 2020 (66% of VAP), according to the Washington Post:

Will Harris match the 81 million votes Biden got? No. But she will get in the mid 70-million vote range, which isn’t a far cry from Biden’s total — and certainly not proof positive that the 2020 election was fraudulent.

As for Democrats who say that the delta between Biden’s total votes and Harris’ are a sign of something important, well, uh, duh. Trump made inroads among a LOT of traditional Democratic voters — be it Latinos or blue state voters or urban voters.

That’s one of the major stories of the election, for sure. But 16 million less people won’t have voted for Harris than voted for Biden. It will almost assuredly be less than half that number when all the votes are counted.

Context, people! Votes are still being counted! Don’t jump to conclusions!

2. Tim Scott’s new gig

Tim Scott didn’t win the Republican presidential nomination. Or get picked as Donald Trump’s VP. But, he’s far from done dabbling in national politics.

On Friday, Scott officially declared himself as a candidate to head the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm of the Senate GOP.

“Let’s do this! I’m running for NRSC Chair because two years of a Republican agenda is good, but four years of success under Donald J. Trump is even better,” Scott said in a statement this morning.

Scott, who touted endorsements from fellow senators including Steve Daines, the current NRSC chairman, and Florida’s Marco Rubio, is likely to be unopposed for the position. Alabama Sen. Katie Britt and Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt had floated their names but ultimately decided against running.

For Scott, the job is a way to vault into Republican leadership — and give him more of a national platform. It also should help him make connections with the conservative donor network nationwide.

It will not be a totally cushy job, however. Unlike the 2024 election when the map tilted heavily toward Republicans, the 2026 races are a little less friendly to the GOP.

Republicans will have to defend 20 seats as compared to just 13 for Democrats. Of those 20, however, only two are obvious targets: North Carolina’s Thom Tillis and Maine’s Susan Collins.

For Democrats, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff tops the vulnerable list. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters could also face a real race. Republicans may make noise about challenging Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire but count me skeptical — at least for now.

3. Friday AMA

As I do every Friday afternoon, I spent an hour answering questions on my YouTube channel. Lots of talk about what went wrong for Kamala Harris — and who might emerge for Democrats between now and 2028. Watch!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“You got the Squad, which has been the most exciting thing in politics since fucking FDR or the New Deal. Instead of embracing the Squad you blame progressives for everything that goes wrong.” — New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, not getting it

ONE GOOD CHART

This chart — via data journalist Patrick Flynn — reveals how quickly the voting coalitions of the two parties have changed vis a vis education and income. Absolutely remarkable.

SONG OF THE DAY

New Zach Bryan! This is “High Road.”

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