CHRIS CRUCIAL: The GOP purge continues 🧨

PLUS: Gov. Nancy Mace?

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1. Trumpifying the Senate

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy

By most measures, Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is pretty darn conservative. He rates highly on the Club For Growth scorecard. He’s right around the average conservative score for Senate Republicans, according to the Heritage Foundation.

But, in the eyes of MAGA, Cassidy is an apostate. Why? Because, following the events of January 6, 2021, Cassidy was one of seven Republican Senators to vote to convict Donald Trump.

In explaining that vote, Cassidy wrote this:

Rather than defending the Constitution, President Trump was actively subverting the peaceful transfer of power, which is a bedrock principle of the Constitution.

I voted to convict former President Trump because he is guilty. That’s what the facts demand.

I have no illusions that this is a popular decision. I made this decision because Americans should not be fed lies about “massive election fraud.” Police should not be left to the mercy of a mob. Mobs should not be inflamed to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power.

Pay special attention to that final paragraph — particularly this line: “I have no illusions that this is a popular decision.”

Cassidy is no dummy. He knew then that voting against Trump imperiled him in a state and in a party that had become increasingly dominated by the former president. And that’s become even more true in the intervening three years, with Trump triumphant and preparing to retake the Oval Office.

Which brings us to today. And an announcement from former Congressman and current Louisiana state Treasurer John Fleming that he will challenge Cassidy in a primary due, in large part, to Cassidy’s impeachment vote.

“A number of Republicans walked away from President Trump in the last year of his first term,” Fleming said Thursday. “But those who turned their backs on him and America First were not committed to his fight to make America great.”

Just in case you missed the point, Fleming added: “I will fight to bring real, conservative solutions to the U.S. Senate, I will not cut-and-run on these conservative principles, and I will stand and work with President Trump like I have many times before.”

Cassidy appears ready for the challenge. He and his team have touted the $5.8 million he has in the bank for the race and his record of delivering for the state. “If they're judging candidates on how much they've done for our state, on the over $10 billion that have come to help fix Louisiana's infrastructure,” Cassidy told the Shreveport Times last month. “I feel like I'll be judged pretty well.”

That remains to be seen. What recent history suggests is that if Trump takes Fleming’s side in the primary, it could well be curtains for Cassidy. While Trump’s endorsement record is decidedly mixed in general elections, he has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to deliver victory to his preferred candidates in primaries.

Cassidy’s best chance to win the primary may well lie with the ambitions of other Trump-y Republicans like Rep. Clay Higgins. If the Trump vote is split between several candidates, Cassidy’s chances improve.

Of the 7 Republican Senators who voted to convict Trump following January 6, only three are left in the Senate. North Carolina’s Richard Burr and Pennyslvania’s Pat Toomey retired in 2022. Nebraska’s Ben Sasse resigned in January 2023 to become the president of the University of Florida. Mitt Romney of Utah is retiring at the end of this Congress.

Only Cassidy, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Maine Sen. Susan Collins remain. The purge is nearly complete.

2. Joni Ernst may have just doomed Pete Hegseth

After Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst met with Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth earlier this week, everyone in the political world — including the Trump White House-in-waiting — was wondering what she thought of him.

Ernst told us on Thursday, and it was not encouraging for Hegseth’s chances.

“I think you are right,” Ernst responded during a Fox News interview when it was suggested that she wasn’t ready to back Hegseth for SecDef.

“A number of our senators, they want to make sure that any allegations have been cleared and that’s why we have to have a very thorough vetting process,” she added. “The vetting will continue, I am certain, through the next month or so until we approach that hearing date.”

Ruh roh.

Ernst’s opinion matters — a lot — for a bunch of reasons: a) She is a military vet b) She has publicly revealed that she was the victim of sexual assault and domestic violence c) She sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, which will hold the confirmation hearings for Hegseth (if they happen).

Republican Senators on the fence about Hegseth — given the revelations about his drinking and the allegations of his treatment of women — are, without doubt, looking to Ernst for guidance.

It’s VERY hard for me to imagine that Hegseth can get 50 Republican Senators to vote for him without Ernst’s support. And, at the moment, he doesn’t have it.

Betting markets reflect the pessimism in Washington surrounding Hegseth’s chances. Here’s the Kalshi odds as of Thursday afternoon:

Eighteen percent! Not great!

And then there’s this from ABC News:

But Trump himself has not been working the phones for Hegseth -- as he did for Matt Gaetz, his original pick for attorney general who withdrew his name from consideration amid sexual assault allegations.

ABC News was told Trump has expressed to those close to him that Hegseth should have been more honest and forthcoming about the challenges he could face getting through the confirmation process given his history.

I feel like I’ve seen this story before — and know how it ends. And it’s not good for Hegseth.

3. Nancy Mace for governor?

South Carolina Republican Rep. Nancy Mace is eyeing a statewide bid — for governor or Senate — in the near future, according to NOTUS.

Here’s the key bit:

The sources said Mace has been discussing two positions: South Carolina governor or a Senate race. (Sen. Lindsey Graham is up for reelection in 2026.)

But three of the sources said Mace is particularly looking at the governor’s seat, which Henry McMaster has held since 2017 when he replaced Nikki Haley after she was appointed to be Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations. McMaster is term-limited in 2026 and can’t run again.

If you’re surprised by this news, you haven’t been paying attention.

As I noted a few weeks back, Mace has taken on the transgender bathroom issue as a way to a) get attention and b) prove her bona fides to the MAGA base of the party.

She is doing increasingly elaborate stunts to draw that attention. Today, for example, Mace took a bullhorn to the DC police department and read Miranda rights to transgender protesters who had been arrested at the Capitol protesting the bathroom issue.

If she runs for governor in 2026, Mace would likely have competition for the Republican nomination. Several candidates — including the state’s lieutenant governor and attorney general — are already being mentioned although it’s not clear if they will ultimately run.

The Senate race is more of a challenge. Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of Donald Trump’s most high profile defenders in the chamber, is expected to run again. Graham, however, has not always been a conservative darling in the state and Rep. Ralph Norman is seen as a possible primary challenger.

4. How come the 2024 election wasn’t stolen?

A new Pew poll has a remarkable finding: More than 9 in 10 Republican voters say that the 2024 election was run and administered “well” while just 21% said the same thing in 2020.

What happened in those four years? Did elections somehow become more secure? Uh, no. What happened is that Donald Trump won this time.

I made a video about the numbers as well as the history (or lack thereof) of voter fraud in American elections. Watch it below. And subscribe to my YouTube channel!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Who are we to say that we're a better vetter and picker of people than Donald Trump? ... Advise and consent, but that's more the Democrats... They should do all the background work.” — Alabama GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville on why he doesn’t think Republicans should vet the president-elect’s Cabinet picks

ONE GOOD CHART

Why don’t people vote? Lots of reasons — but mainly because they don’t think their vote will make a difference. This Pew data looks at why people didn’t vote in 2024.

SONG OF THE DAY

MJ Lenderman and Waxahatchee made two of my favorite albums this year. Separately. But, together? I mean: Whoa. This is a snippet of the duo’s cover of Lucinda Williams’ “Abandoned.”

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