Chris Crucial: The Liz Cheney question

PLUS: SOTU watch party TONIGHT!

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1. What’s Liz Cheney thinking?: On Wednesday, after Donald Trump swept to victory on Super Tuesday, Liz Cheney posted this on Twitter X:

If you click the link she provides, it takes you to a website called “The Great Task.” Click the “About” section there and you get this:

The Great Task is a multi-candidate PAC sponsored by Congresswoman Liz Cheney that is focused on reverence for the rule of law, respect for our Constitution, and a recognition that all citizens have a responsibility to put their duty to the country above partisanship. The Great Task is designed to educate and mobilize Americans in a unified effort to ensure that our Republic endures.

Cheney formed the leadership PAC the day after she lost the 2022 primary to Rep. Harriet Hageman, who ran as an outspoken supporter of Donald Trump.

As of the end of 2023, the PAC had raised almost $375,000 for the year and had just over $1 million in the bank.

Which isn’t nothing! At the same time, it’s not the sort of fundraising juggernaut that is going to have a major voice in a race that is likely to see more than $6 billion spent when all is said and done.

And that leads me to this question: Is a relatively small PAC the extent of what Cheney has planned to make good on her promise to keep Trump from the White House?

Yes, I know Cheney does plenty of TV — banging the drum on the dangers that Trump represents both for the Republican party and the country. (There’s a whole section of “The Great Task” website dedicated to Cheney’s media appearances.)

But, even that has, at best, a marginal effect on the race. I guess I thought that Cheney, who was the face of the Republican resistance to Trump just a few years ago, might, well, do more?

Now, Cheney could well have a trick or two up her sleeve! For example, back in December, she seemed open to running as a third party candidate for president.

“I think that the situation that we’re in is so grave, and the politics of the moment require independents and Republicans and Democrats coming together in a way that can help form a new coalition, so that may well be a third-party option,” she said.

Those comments dovetail nicely with the news out of the group “No Labels” that with the nominations of Trump and Joe Biden now all-but-certain, they are moving forward with the process of selecting a national ticket.

As the Associated Press reported this week:

After months of leaving open whether the group would offer a ticket, No Labels delegates are expected to vote Friday in favor of launching a presidential campaign for this fall’s election, according to the people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the group’s internal deliberations.

No Labels will not name its presidential and vice presidential picks on Friday, when roughly 800 delegates meet virtually in a private meeting. The group is instead expected to debut a formal selection process late next week for potential candidates who would be selected in the coming weeks, the people said.

And, Cheney has been open about the potential need for a new party — given the current status of the GOP. “I don’t know if our party can be saved,” she said in late 2023. “We may need to build a new party.”

Cheney as part of a national “No Labels” ticket — whether as the presidential or vice presidential nominee — would certainly gin up interest and excitement in the idea of a third party bid.

But, what would it do to the electoral math? Cheney is a hero to Democrats and a zero to most Republicans at this point. While she spent her entire political life as a conservative Republican, it’s not immediately clear to me that she would pull exclusively — or even mostly — from Republicans who might vote for Trump otherwise. In fact, she could well split — or at least divvy up somewhat — the anti-Trump vote, lowering the percentage the former president would need to win in swing states.

Cheney is smart. She knows that. And I assume assessing what her impact would be on the chances of Trump getting back to the White House is top of mind as she figures out what’s next.

If you are looking for a wildcard in the coming election, Cheney is your best bet. I am not sure what she ultimately decides to do but I don’t think we’ve heard the last from her in this race.

2. SOTU Watch Party!: Tonight, as you may have heard (😂 ), is Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech. I am trying something new — hosting a livestream watch party over at my YouTube channel.

The plan — emphasis on “plan” — is that we will watch the speech together. YouTube has a picture-in-picture feature where we can watch the video and I can offer the occasional comments — while also chatting LIVE in the comment section.

The speech starts at 9 pm eastern. I am going to go live at 8:45 pm (or so). It should be fun! Join!

3. Trump super PAC attacks Biden’s age: If you happened to watch “Morning Joe” this morning, you saw this ad paid for by Donald Trump’s super PAC going after Joe Biden’s age.

“We can all see Joe Biden’s weakness,” says the ad’s narrator. “If Biden wins, can he even survive to 2029. The real question is, can we?”

The commercial features images of Biden stumbling onto stage and tripping up the stairs of Air Force One.

It is running on select cable channels today and tomorrow.

The Biden campaign called the commercial “a sick and deranged stunt from a broke and struggling campaign.”

The ad is a leading indicator of the messaging that the Trump operation will use in the coming eight months — portraying Biden, who is 81, as too old to serve another term in office. Trump is 77 years old.

And, remember, it’s only March. It’s going to get a LOT worse from here.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I'm like 70% of the rest of people in America who do not want Joe Biden or Donald Trump to be president.” — Former Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan making clear he won’t vote for either party’s nominee in November

ONE GOOD CHART

How long will Joe Biden speak tonight? Well, he went for 72 minutes last year — and the trend in State of the Union speeches is toward longer addresses in the last 10 years, according to this chart from the Washington Post.

SONG OF THE DAY

On this day in 1987, the Beastie Boys’ “Licensed to Ill” became the first rap album to go to #1 on the charts. While I am a Beasties fan from way back, I always preferred their 2nd album — “Paul’s Boutique” — to “Licensed to Ill.” This is “Hey Ladies” from that record. (Also, it is an AMAZING music video — back when that was a thing!)