Chris Crucial: The Senate playing field comes into focus

What. A. Week.

I am headed out to host a trivia night (one of my favorite things to do!) so this piece will be a bit shorter than usual. As always, “Chris Crucial” aims to bring you the news you need to see from the political day that was. Get it in your inbox every night!

1. The Senate! I spend a lot of time in this space writing about the presidential race. But I keep a close eye on the battle for the Senate and House majorities too! And, in the last 24 hours, two Republicans — from opposite ends of the party — announced Senate bids. Both are worth talking about — for different reasons.

In Maryland, popular former Gov. Larry Hogan surprised me (and the rest of the political world) by getting into the strongly Democratic state’s open seat Senate race on Friday.

“For eight years we proved that the toxic politics that divide our nation need not divide our state,” Hogan said in a video posted on X Friday morning.

Hogan’s candidacy is good news for Republicans as he is probably the only GOPer who could make the state even mrginally competitive. It remains to be seen whether Hogan, a noted moderate and prominent critic of Donald Trump, will escape a serious primary challenge from his right.

Democrats have a heated primary shaping up between wealthy Rep. David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.

On the less-good-news side of things for Republicans, Rep. Matt Rosendale, an arch conservative, made good on his long-standing pledge to run for the Republican Senate nomination in Montana.

“We’ve made great accomplishments in the House, only to see them die at the hands of Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer in the Senate,” tweeted Rosendale. “Montanans want a Senator that fights for WE, THE PEOPLE, not the D.C. Cartel!”

Which complicates the situation for the GOP establishment, who had long ago rallied around wealthy businessman Tim Sheehy as their preferred choice to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in November.

Montana Sen. Steve Daines, who runs the Republican campaign committee and has endorsed Sheehy, reacted, um, poorly to the news of Rosendale’s candidacy. “It’s unfortunate that rather than building seniority for our great state in the House, Matt is choosing to abandon his seat and create a divisive primary,” Daines said.

Maryland isn’t likely to be a majority maker for Republicans. Hogan gives the party a real candidate who will run a real race but it’s still a bit of a longshot right now. Montana, on the other hand, could well make or break the GOP’s quest for the majority. Rosendale already lost to Tester 6 years ago — and Democrats are praying that he beats Sheehy who they believe represents a much more serious challenge for the incumbent.

Quick context: Democrats have a single seat majority in the Senate. But they are defending 23 seats this November as compared to just 11 for Republicans. (Check out the Cook Political Report’s most recent ratings on all 34 seats here.)

2. GOP Veepstakes — Constitution Edition: Give New York Rep. Elise Stefanik this: She’s unapologetic (and unashamed) in her efforts to be picked as Trump’s vice president.

In an interview with CNN on Thursday night, Stefanik said she would “not have done what Mike Pence did” when it came to the counting of the electoral college votes on January 6, 2021.

Which should be amazing. An elected official — and a member of the House Republican leadership — saying she would have ignored the Constitution in order to try to hand the election to Trump.

I mean, 10 years ago that would be roundly disqualifying! Today, however, it appears a sine qua non position of ambitious Republicans who want to wind up on the national ticket.

Last weekend in an interview with ABC, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, who, like Stefanik, is widely mentioned as a potential Trump VP, made clear that he, too, would not have counted the electoral votes on January 6.

“If I had been vice president, I would have told the states, like Pennsylvania, Georgia and so many others, that we needed to have multiple slates of electors, and I think the U.S. Congress should have fought over it from there,” Vance said. “That is the legitimate way to deal with an election that a lot of folks, including me, think had a lot of problems in 2020.”

Remarkable. This is the party of strict Constitutionalists! Right? Right????

3. Handicapping the RNC Chair race. Ronna Romney McDaniel’s days as head of the Republican National Committee are numbered, with most people expecting her to be out by the end of the month.

Which raises the question: Who’s next? The New York Times published a piece Friday afternoon that suggests there are, really, only two options.

Behind Door #1 is Michael Whatley, the chair of the North Carolina GOP. Whatley appears to be the pick of Trump — thanks largely to his prominence as an election denier after 2020. “Regardless of how these lawsuits come out around the country with the presidential race we do know that there was massive fraud that took place,” Whatley said in November 2020. (There is no evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 election.)

Behind Door #2 is Drew McKissick, the chair of the South Carolina Republican party who beat out Whatley in 2023 for the title of RNC co-chair.

My money is VERY much on Whatley. Mostly because Trump is the de facto nominee and the party’s presidential pick gets his way — almost always — in who should run the RNC.

4. Biden 2024? Yes.: I’m with Rich Lowry: Joe Biden isn’t going anywhere — even after the disastrous special counsel report on his age and memory and his angry (and ineffective) press conference on Thursday.

Here’s Lowry, writing in POLITICO:

A high-powered Democratic delegation could sit down with Biden in the White House and say for the good of the country and the party he has to step aside, and he’d likely just say, “No. Make me.” And how would they make him? They could leave the meeting and immediately go in front of cameras in the White House driveway and say they think he shouldn’t run again. Unless they could be sure he actually would fold his tent under such pressure, though, they’d just be grievously wounding him in advance of what already looks like a stiff challenge from Trump.

For Biden not to run requires Biden deciding on his own not to run. If that was going to be the call, he needed to make it last year, to give the alternatives the chance to mount primary campaigns.

It’s worth remembering, by the way, that the last person on the planet who is going to come to the conclusion that Joe Biden isn’t capable of being president any longer is Joe Biden. Not only does he probably think he’s doing a fine job, he’s spent his entire adult life trying to get to the place where he can walk out his door and get greeted by a Marine saluting him outside Marine One. No one wants to give up the presidency, especially when they’ve spent decades — with some humiliating false starts — trying to get there.

This this this. I have long believed that Biden was (and is) going to run again for two main reasons: 1) He believes himself to be the only Democrat able to beat Trump in November and 2) He spent his entire life trying to become president — and would NEVER voluntarily give it up.

And I don’t think there is anyone in the party — or the country — who could talk Biden out of his logic for running again. (I mean, maybe Jill Biden could do it but she’s all in on his reelection bid.)

Barring a major medical incident, Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee in November. Is that a risk? A massive one.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Look, I’m a Biden supporter. And I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every two hours and wet the bed. This is terrible for Democrats. And anybody with a functioning brain knows that." -- Paul Begala on the special counsel report released Thursday

ONE GOOD CHART

It will cost $7 million(!) to run a single 30-second ad during the Super Bowl on Sunday night. Front Office Sports broke down how the costs of a Super Bowl commercial have soared over the past 5 decades.

SONG OF THE DAY

You may know Brittany Howard as the frontwoman for the terrific band the Alabama Shakes. But she is also pursuing a solo career — and her new album “What Now” came out this week. Here’s the title track:

I want to do this newsletter FULL TIME. But in order for that to happen, I need your support! I am less than 150 subscribers away from 12,000. Can you help? 🙏