Chris Crucial: The single most important 2024 chart

PLUS: California picks a Senator!

Welcome to the final “Chris Crucial” of the week. We did it! If you haven’t signed up to get this nightly newsletter in your email inbox, now is the time! I NEED your support to keep producing this content. Become a paid subscriber — just $5 a month! — today!

1. Consumer confidence: The single most important factor in this election (and, really, every election) is how people feel about the strength (or weakness) of the economy.

To be clear: I am not talking about what leading economic indicators like inflation or GDP say. I am talking about feelings — the way people perceive their own financial well being and the nation’s. (The economic indicators do have some influence over peoples’ perceptions but less than you might think.)

Luckily for you (and me) there is a terrific, monthly way to monitor these perceptions. It’s called the “Survey of Consumers” and it’s produced by the University of Michigan.

The way it works is simple: People are asked to rate the economy on a 0-100 scale. The higher the score, the better people feel about things. (Duh!)

The latest monthly data from Michigan was released this morning. It showed consumer sentiment for February at 76.9 — down slightly from 79 in January.

“Consumers perceived few changes in the state of the economy since the start of the new year, and they appear to be assured that inflation will continue on a favorable trajectory,” wrote Joanne Hsu, who runs the survey. “Sentiment is currently 8 points shy of the historical average since 1978.”

Here’s the longer-term trend in chart form:

And here is the simple political truth it tells: If that black line is moving upward as the election nears, Joe Biden is (probably) going to win. If it’s static or moving downward, Donald Trump is (probably) going to win.

Yes, of course, I am oversimplifying somewhat. Abortion, immigration, democracy and a bunch of other issues will move the needle somewhat too. As will external events that we can’t foresee just yet.

But, if you are looking for a SINGLE metric that best predicts the outcome of the 2024 race, I think the consumer sentiment number out of the University of Michigan is it. Bookmark the site here.

2. California picks a Senator!: If you follow politics closely at all, you are likely aware that this coming Tuesday is “Super Tuesday” when 15 states (and American Samoa) pick their preferred Democratic and Republican presidential candidates.

Which, honestly, boring.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are going to be the party nominees — and both are going to swamp all competition in all 15 states on Tuesday.

But, the day is NOT without intrigue — especially in California where voters will take part in a jungle primary (all candidates of all parties run on the same ballot) to pick the replacement for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

The top two vote-getters — regardless of party — will advance to a runoff for the seat on November 5.

So, who’s it going to be? According to a new UC Berkeley poll, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and former baseball great (and Republican) Steve Garvey have the inside track.

Which is GREAT news for Schiff. California, in a general election setting, is overwhelmingly Democratic. Which means that if, as expected ,Garvey makes it into the final two — beating out Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee — then Schiff will be a heavy favorite to be the next Senator from California.

Schiff entered the race as the favorite — thanks to his national profile during the impeachment(s) of then President Donald Trump. Porter has grown a national following too — as a prominent voice on the liberal left. Some thought Lee, the only prominent African American in the race, might have a niche.

But, in the end, name ID looks to have won out. (It’s incredibly difficult — and expensive — to communicate via TV in California, making it really tough to get known statewide unless you already are.) Schiff and Garvey were the best known candidates at the start of the race and not much has changed since then.

In short: Schiff appears to be on a glide track to the Senate.

3. 45 minutes of ME: Every Friday, I take a TON of questions via livestream on my YouTube channel. (SUBSCRIBE!). This week’s edition is below!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“He needs to come out strongly for Trump, even though he might have to bite his tongue to do that ... don’t fight it, you gotta go along with it.” — Indiana Republican Sen. Mike Braun on Mitch McConnell endorsing the former president

ONE GOOD CHART

Feeling bad about yourself? Need a pick-me-up heading into the weekend? Try this one on for size: You are almost certainly more popular than Congress right now (via Gallup).

SONG OF THE DAY

Thirty five years ago this Sunday, De La Soul released “3 Feet High and Rising” — my favorite hip hop album of all time (and one of the most influential). To celebrate, they’ve released a special edition with some unreleased songs and alternate versions of old songs. Listen to the album here. And this is a home demo recording of “Plug Tunin’”