Chris Crucial: This is the end (of the beginning)

PLUS: Sinema calls it quits!

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1. Let the general election begin!: Today, as you likely know, is Super Tuesday — when 15 states (and American Samoa!) cast their primary ballots for president (and a whole bunch of downballot races).

This is a deeply anticlimactic day — no matter what you hear from your favorite media personalities. Joe Biden will win every single state on the ballot today. Donald Trump will win most (if not all).

This has been clear for some time now. The truth of this presidential primary process is that it has been the most predictable — and drama-free — nomination “fight” that we have seen in decades.

Biden, once he made the decision he was running for a 2nd term, was always going to be the Democratic presidential nominee. (Sorry Michelle Obama conspiracy theorists!)

While there was some doubt about Trump’s coronation in the early days of the 2024 race, it became clear by the spring of last year (right around when Trump was first indicted) that he was going to be very hard to beat.

Any lingering hope that the faction of anti-Trump forces would be large enough to put his nomination in doubt disappeared more than a month ago — when the former president beat Nikki Haley by double digits in New Hampshire.

But, while the primaries have been, effectively, over for a while now, I DO think that tonight’s results represent a more formal ending — or beginning, depending on which end of the lens you are looking through.

While neither Biden nor Trump will secure enough delegates to officially become the nominee tonight, two other things are likely to happen.

First, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, the most credible primary challenger to Biden (and I use the word “most” advisedly) will likely drop from the race after being blanked on Super Tuesday.

Here’s Phillips pledging to do just that last November:

I have no reason to believe that Phillips has re-thought that pledge. There has certainly been zero evidence to suggest that Democratic primary voters are willing to vote — in any real numbers — for someone other than Biden.

Then there is the other side of the aisle. Haley has made no such specific, public pledge about when she might end her candidacy but, reading between the lines, I would guess that if Trump romps tonight (as expected) that will be the end for the former South Carolina governor.

Haley repeatedly refused to drop out of the primary after losing New Hampshire, insisting that not nearly enough Americans had had their chance to vote for a Republican presidential candidate.

That, of course, will no longer be true after tonight. More than one-third of ALL Republican delegates will be up for grabs on Super Tuesday alone.

Over the weekend, Haley was cagey when asked whether today would be the last day of her campaign.

“As long as we are competitive, as long as we are showing that there is a place for us, I’m going to continue to fight,” she said on “Meet the Press.”

“Competitive” is, of course, in the eye of the beholder. But with Americans for Prosperity having pulled its funding of her campaign and other major donors unlikely to want to continue sinking money into a doomed effort, my guess is Haley is out of the race by the end of the week.

Which means, of course, that the general election can begin in earnest. Be careful of what you wish for on that front — we are headed toward 8 months of nastiness the likes of which I don’t think we have ever seen before.

2. Sinema retires, Democrats rejoice: Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, announced — via a message posted on Twitter X Tuesday afternoon — that she will not run for a 2nd term.

“I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now,” said Sinema in the video.

True! Polling in the race — that also features Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake — suggested that Sinema had very little chance of being reelected.

Elected first as a Democrat in 2018 — after having spent time in the U.S. House — Sinema became an independent in 2022. Sinema had drawn the ire of many liberal Democrats during her first four years in the Senate due to her unwillingness to push their priorities — most notably weakening the rules governing filibusters.

While Sinema was unlikely to win in November, her decision is some much-needed good news for Democrats desperately trying to hold onto their one-seat Senate majority.

Democrats were very concerned that Sinema running as an independent would siphon off enough votes from moderates in her former party that Lake, a deeply controversial figure in the state, could use her near-unanimous support within the GOP base to ride to a Senate victory.

While Gallego beating Lake is no sure thing, a straight-up, two-person race almost certainly gives Democrats a better chance of holding the seat for their side.

Republican campaign officials, for what it’s worth, said the opposite. “With recent polling showing Kyrsten Sinema pulling far more Republican voters than Democrat voters, her decision to retire improves Kari Lake’s opportunity to flip this seat,” said Montana Sen. Steve Daines in a statement.

Which the party will almost certainly need to do if it wants to hold onto its Senate majority. Republicans are heavily favored to win retiring West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat. And Democratic incumbents running in Ohio and Montana are deeply endangered due to the Republican lean of their states.

All told, Democrats are defending 23 seats to just 11 for Republicans. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates 10 Democratic seats as potentially competitive as compared to just 2 for Republicans.

I’m planning a much deeper dive on the Senate landscape in this space in the near future — so stay tuned!

3. Memory-holing Trump: The New York Times published a super-important piece earlier this week — noting that the American public appears to be forgetting the bad things Donald Trump said and did as president.

This paragraph in particular stood out to me:

More than three years of distance from the daily onslaught has faded, changed — and in some cases, warped — Americans’ memories of events that at the time felt searing. Polling suggests voters’ views on Mr. Trump’s policies and his presidency have improved in the rearview mirror. In interviews, voters often have a hazy recall of one of the most tumultuous periods in modern politics. Social scientists say that’s unsurprising. In an era of hyper-partisanship, there’s little agreed-upon collective memory, even about events that played out in public.

And this chart, which comes from the new Times-Siena College poll, is deeply revealing on that memory issue:

I DO think that there is some forgetting happening. I feel it myself. Trump said and did SO many outlandish things during his time as president that, I think, it’s simply hard to remember all of them — even if you try desperately to do so. (This piece from Vanity Fair does a good job of reminding you of ALL that Trump did.)

I’ve likened Trump in this regard to Mr. Burns from “The Simpsons.” Mr. Burns is SO sickly — he literally has every disease known to man — that they all block each other out and he is perfectly well.

There’s some of that happening with Trump too. There’s just so much! No one can keep it all straight! And so, some chunk of people just sort of chalk it all up to “Trump being Trump” without engaging in any of the specifics of what he has done or has said he will do.

Obviously, the job of Joe Biden’s campaign is to remind people of Trump’s actions in and out of office. And of the active threat he poses to the way we have traditionally defined the presidency — and democracy itself.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Think of the alternative, folks.” — President Joe Biden’s message to African American voters, during a radio interview in Texas on Tuesday

ONE GOOD CHART

There’s very little good news for President Joe Biden in these numbers from Gallup. Not only do a majority of people disapprove of the overall job he is doing as president, there’s not a single major issue where they think Biden is doing a good job.

SONG OF THE DAY

Amanda Shires turns 42 today. In addition to playing a mean fiddle and making gorgeous, soaring solo work, she is also part of the female country music super group The Highwomen. This is “Crowded Table” from their 2019 self-titled album.