Chris Crucial: What if Biden's age isn't a killer issue?

PLUS: DeSantis dishes on Trump!

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1. The age thing, re-thought: Regular readers of this newsletter know that I have been pretty adamant that Joe Biden’s advanced age is THE issue of the campaign for him.

But, I also like to keep an open mind — knowing that a) lots of smart people have differing views and b) I don’t have a monopoly on right thinking.

Which brings me to a piece written by longtime GOP operative Alex Conant in POLITICO today. Here’s the key bit of Alex’s argument:

As a Republican strategist who has bluntly tried to make the case for generational change against an opposing presidential candidate, I can tell you it doesn’t really work….

….The truth is that octogenarians and nonagenarians are far more likely to die in office than lose reelection.

Why? Because a politician’s personal traits — including age, honesty and fidelity — only become salient campaign issues when they are tied to real-world matters that directly impact voters. In most cases, if elected leaders are advancing policies popular with their constituents, voters are willing to look past personal shortcomings and give them another term.

Which is intriguing!

And, Conant makes a point that I had thought about —but forgot to write about! — after special counsel Robert Hur’s report came out. He notes that while MOST of the political world (including the Biden White House) was focused on Hur’s assertion that Biden was, and I am paraphrasing here, a weakened old man with memory issues, Donald Trump was NOT focused on that part of the report.

Instead, here’s what Trump said — via his Truth Social site:

As Conant concludes:

While conservative media takes delight in tracking Biden’s senior moments, the 77-year-old Trump seems to instinctively understand that it’s not his best line of attack. For example, following the Hur report on the handling of classified documents, Trump’s reaction focused not on Biden’s memory but on the appearance of a double standard in the justice system. While Trump makes light of Biden’s gaffes, his main message focuses on his own personal grievances and issues voters care about, including immigration.

Now. I am not as not as convinced as Conant that Biden’s age isn’t going to be important to voters. Here’s why: 1) Biden is the oldest person to be president or seek a second term 2) People have different expectations of their presidents than they do of, say, a Senator or a House member 3) Biden has visibly slowed in the past three years.

Do I think that if the economy was perceived as kicking ass and people felt good, generally speaking, about Biden’s presidency, that his age would be a MUCH less salient issue? Absolutely.

But that’s not the world we are living in. People are unhappy with Biden’s handling of the economy, the border, foreign policy and on and on. In looking for a way to explain that unhappiness, I think they land on his age as the key problem.

But, as I said above, I haven’t cornered the market on good ideas or smart thinking about this race. Make sure to read Alex’s whole piece. Plenty of food for thought.

2. Ron DeSantis, raw and uncut: So much for that speculation that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis might be on the verge of endorsing Donald Trump — and pushing his way into the Veepstakes!

The New York Post got the audio of a call that DeSantis did with former (and current backers) on Wednesday in which he ruled out being Trump’s second-in-command.

“People were mentioning me [as a potential vice president],” said DeSantis. “I am not doing that.”

But, DeSantis didn’t stop there! Of the Trump VP selection process, he said: “I’ve heard that they are looking more at identity politics. I think that’s a mistake. I think you should just focus on who you think the best person for the job would be.”

And there was even more! DeSantis suggested that the Trump campaign’s savaging of him was entirely the result of his relationship (or lack thereof) with GOP strategist Susie Wiles, who is now on the former president’s strategy team. “I think [Trump’s] got people in his inner circle who were a part of our orbit years ago that we fired, and I think some of that is they have an ax to grind,” said DeSantis. (For more on the Wiles-DeSantis dynamic, read this.)

And, YES, even more! “I was in Congress the first two years when Trump was president,” DeSantis said. “I mean, we didn’t really do what we said we would do. You didn’t see any major immigration, border or any type of legislation. You didn’t see anything with repealing and replacing Obamacare. You didn’t see anything about reining in the bureaucracy. I mean, it was pretty, pretty mundane stuff.”

OUCH.

Trump’s team, never one to let an attack go unanswered, hit back hard at DeSantis. Here’s Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita (a must-follow on Twitter by the way):

Good times. Goooooooood times.

3. Is impeachment dead?: In the wake of the bombshell report that allegations about a bribery scheme involving Joe and Hunter Biden were, well, made up, Republicans — or at least SOME of them — sounded skeptical about the chances of the House impeaching the president.

North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry, who came to national attention while serving as Speaker pro tempore following Kevin McCarthy’s removal from the job, said Thursday that there was “less than a fifty percent” chance that articles of impeachment would get a floor vote.

Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who holds a swing seat, was similarly pessimistic. “My sense is it’s not going to happen,” he told Time. “We should determine the next president through the election.”

We are two months removed from the House — on a party line vote — approving an impeachment investigation into Biden amid allegations that he personally profited from his time as vice president.

At the time, the assumption — or at least MY assumption — was that Republicans would eventually pass at least one impeachment article against Biden.

But, with the Alexander Smirnov revelations and the extremely narrow GOP majority in the House, I am MUCH less certain of that now.

Much depends on how much stomach Speaker Mike Johnson has for what would undoubtedly be a VERY close vote. Does he want to risk LOSING a(nother) impeachment vote? (He’s already lost one!)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I don’t care about a political future, if I did I would have been out by now.” — Nikki Haley, on the campaign trail in South Carolina today.

ONE GOOD CHART

Being president was bad for Donald Trump’s real estate holdings in New York City, according to this chart from the New York Times. (Hat tip: Steve Rattner)

SONG OF THE DAY

On this day in 1963, John Lennon and Paul McCartney formed Northern Songs — the music publishing company that Michael Jackson eventually bought for $47 million in 1985. In honor of that day, here’s “Only a Northern Song.”