CHRIS CRUCIAL: When will we know who won?

PLUS: Mayor Giuliani?!?!?

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1. WHEN????

There are two questions everyone wants to know the answer to today: 1) Who is going to win? and 2) When are we going to know who won?

I have spent a WHOLE lot of time on the first question over these many months. But, I haven’t dedicated as much time to the second question.

So, let’s do that.

Start here: The 2020 election was called for Joe Biden at 11:26 AM eastern on Saturday, November 7 — four days after election day. (I am using Associated Press race calls throughout for uniformity.)

NONE of the major swing states was called on that Tuesday night.

The first big one to fall was Arizona, which was called for Joe Biden at 2:51 am on Wednesday morning.

At 2:16 pm on Wednesday, the AP called Wisconsin for Biden. Just before 6 pm, they called Michigan for Biden.

And then we waited. For days.

On Saturday November 7 at 11:25 am, the AP called Pennsylvania for Biden. One minute later, they called the whole thing for him. (Nevada wasn’t called until 12:13 pm that day.)

The AP didn’t call North Carolina for Donald Trump until November 13. Georgia remained uncalled until November 19 — when it went for Biden.

All of that is to say that when it’s close, it takes a looooooong time to figure out who won.

And, while 2020 was close — especially in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, 2024 looks to be far closer in more states, at least according to the Washington Post polling averages in the 7 swing states:

And there are other mitigating factors here too — most notably that Trump has shown a willingness to publicly demonize anyone who calls a state (or counts votes in a state) where the outcome is not to his liking. (I mean, people at Fox News, who got the Arizona call RIGHT in 2020, got fired!)

Which is going to make media outlets even more careful to make damn sure they are certain about the winner before they call anything.

With all that in mind, let’s run through a few maps — based on states that traditionally count fast (and slow) — and see when we might know a winner.

This is the earliest possible call, in map form:

And, by the way, it could also look like this:

If Harris or Trump win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, it’s over. No matter what happens in the Midwest or the Sun Belt.

And, Georgia and North Carolina tend to count votes quickly. So, if it’s not as close as it was in 2020 in either state, we could know a winner by Wednesday there. Pennsylvania is a bit slower but likely Wednesday or Thursday — unless it’s super close. (One caveat: Pennsylvania election law doesn’t allow absentee or overseas ballot to be opened — and counted — until Election Day. Which is going to slow down the process.)

To be clear: I don’t think a sweep of all three of those states is the likeliest outcome. But, if it did happen for Harris or Trump, we would know the identity of the next president by Thursday-ish.

Of course, if Harris and Trump split those three states — NC, GA and PA — we could be in for a very long wait. Here’s a map where Trump wins PA and GA and Harris wins NC:

Under this map, even if Harris wins Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10), where she is running slightly better than she is in Pennsylvania, the race will still not be over. At that point, it would be Harris 267, Trump 254 — with the outcome hanging on Nevada and Arizona.

And, unless Trump swept Wisconsin and Michigan, he wouldn’t be able to win either. A Michigan win would make the race Trump 269 Harris 252 — close, but not enough to put the former president officially back in the White House.

Which would move things to the west — and the notorious slow-counting states of Nevada and Arizona.

Here’s a recent report on why Arizona takes so damn long to count:

The main holdup with Arizona election results is that voters can drop off early ballots until the polls close at 7 p.m. on Election Day.

All “late-early” ballot envelopes must be scanned and the signatures must be verified before those votes can be tabulated. A five-day curing period to determine whether provisional ballots or early ballots with mismatched signatures should be tabulated also can slow the pace of Arizona election results.

And here’s the New York Times on Nevada circa 2022:

Nevada’s rules around mail-in voting, and voters’ embrace of the method, contribute to the delay in race calls. While ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, they can be counted if they arrive as late as Saturday, Nov. 12. And if a voter’s signature on their mail-in ballot does not match their signature on file, the voter has until Monday, Nov. 14, to fix the discrepancy.

Last year, the state began requiring that mail-in ballots be sent to every registered voter. Election officials in Nevada have said that they have been flooded by mail-in ballots, and that it may take several days to count the votes and upload results. Emphasizing the need for patience, they have not offered predictions on how quickly they will be able to offer tallies.

Under a scenario where Arizona and Nevada decide the presidential election, I would guess we might not know who won for a week afterwards — and maybe more.

This would not be good news for democracy, candidly. Because the longer it takes to call a winner provides Trump — if past is prologue — ample ammunition to use the delays as evidence that the election is being stolen from him (even if he has zero proof to back up that claim).

If I had to guess — judging by the closeness of the polls — I think we would be lucky to have this race called by Saturday. I hope I’m wrong!

2. Rudy 2025?!?!

Former New York City mayor — and Trump lackey confidante — Rudy Giuliani is apparently considering running for his old job, according to the New York Post.

“I’m not going to say never, ever, ever,” Giuliani told the Post when reached for comment, adding that, as of now “I’m not running for mayor.”

I am sure that Giuliani’s supposed interest in the race has nothing to do with the fact that he is facing all sorts of financial problems. HA!

Giuliani owes two Georgia election workers $150 million for defaming them in the wake of the 2020 election.

At issue currently is whether Giuliani should be forced to turn over his $3.5 million Florida condo to the two election workers — as well as four(!) New York Yankees World Series rings, among other possessions.

Earlier this fall, Giuliani was permanently disbarred in Washington, DC for his role in spreading false election conspiracies following the 2020 election. This past July, Giuliani was disbarred in New York.

And weeks before that decision came down, a federal judge ruled that Giuliani could not seek bankruptcy protection. As the Associated Press wrote at the time:

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane criticized Giuliani for repeated “uncooperative conduct,” self-dealing, and a lack of transparency. The judge cited failures to comply with court orders, failure to disclose sources of income, and his apparent unwillingness to hire an accountant to go over his books.

“Such a failure is a clear red flag,” Lane wrote.

Dismissing the case ends his pursuit of bankruptcy protection, but it doesn’t absolve him of his debts. His creditors can now pursue other legal remedies to recoup at least some of the money they’re owed, such as getting a court order to seize his apartments and other assets.

It’s impossible to see Giuliani’s potential mayoral candidacy as anything other than an attempt to gain some leverage or a break from the various issues swirling around him.

Although Giuliani was elected twice as mayor of new York City, his political career has landed in the toilet after an unsuccessful run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 and his subsequent decision to become a mouthpiece for the most ridiculous of Trump’s election lies.

3. Some good news

One of the things I knew I wanted to do in my post-CNN career was find ways to show people that there are a) actually lots of good people in elected office in Washington and that b) Republicans and Democrats have a lot more in common than what divides them.

I was lucky enough to meet the Leonsis family who, in addition to owning the Washington Wizards, Washington Capitals and the Washington Mystics, also run the Monumental Sports Network.

I pitched them on an idea that I have been ruminating on for a long while: How sports is a common language we all — politicians included! — speak. And that sports could actually help us understand each other better — and start to heal some political divides. (I first started kicking this all around when I wrote my book: “Power Players: Sports, Politics and the American Presidency.”)

Well, I am happy to report that the idea has become a full-fledged show! It’s called “Politics Aside with Chris Cillizza” — and the first episode premieres Thursday night at 6:30 pm on Monumental Sports Network.

Doing the show has been incredibly fun. In the first episode, I try to skate (not well) and play goalie against a former Division I national champion hockey player, who just happens to be a Republican member of Congress from Minnesota.

Click here to see if you get Monumental — or if you can!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Welp.” —

Nate Silver

on his final election model — which shows Donald Trump with a 50.4% chance of winning and Kamala Harris with a 49.2% chance.

ONE GOOD CHART

Ok, technically this is a magazine cover. But the latest New Yorker cover — by artist Barry Blitt — says it all.

SONG OF THE DAY

The most relaxing song ever, according to at least some neuroscientists, is “Weightless” by Marconi Union. And we all could use some relaxation right about now, right? So, enjoy. (Also, this NPR conversation on relaxing songs has a lot of good suggestions too!)

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