CHRIS CRUCIAL: Why Democrats shouldn't celebrate just yet 🥳
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1. Donald Trump’s “low” polls
Amid Donald Trump’s rambling 90-minute “press conference” on Thursday, he actually said something super interesting.
Here it is:
I also think, you know, I tend to poll low. In some cases, really low. You know, in 2016, I was polling low because people didn't want to say who they're voting for. I don't know if that's supposed to be a good thing or a bad thing, but it is what it is.
He’s actually right.
Let’s dive into the data. (I touched on this earlier this week but wanted to go deeper because I think it’s very important.)
The final national polling average in the 2016 race looked like this:
Hillary Clinton had a four-point edge.
Here’s what the national popular vote actually looked like in 2016:
Clinton: 65,853,625 votes (48.0%)
Trump: 62,985,106 votes (45.9%)
Trump overperformed the final national polling average by 2 points.
Which is interesting. But not determinative. So, let’s look at 2020. Here’s the final national polling average in that race:
Biden +8!
Now, again, here’s the actual popular vote:
Biden 81,282,916 votes (51.3%)
Trump: 74,223,369 votes (46.9%)
Trump overperformed the final national polling average by 4 points.
Now, past isn’t always prologue. It’s possible that whatever the final national polling average is in the race between Kamala Harris and Trump is very close to the actual margin.
But, based on the fact that Trump has run for president twice and both times he has pretty significantly over-performed national polling averages, it’s also not crazy to think he might do so again in November.
Here’s where the current national polling average sits:
Harris is ahead by close to 3 points. Which is a hell of a lot better than where Joe Biden was vis a vis Trump before he ended his campaign last month.
But, it is also a weaker position than either Clinton or Biden were in — at this point — in their own races against Trump.
Semafor’s Dave Weigel made just this point on X on Thursday night.
Here’s where Biden was versus Trump:
And here’s where Clinton was:
As Dave noted: “This is still the best poll position Trump has been at around this point in 2016/2020.”
Then there’s this: Clinton WON the popular vote by 2 points over Trump in 2016 and still lost the electoral college 304-227.
And, if anything, the electoral college has grown more favorable to Republicans in the intervening 8 years.
This from the Cook Report’s Amy Walter explains that:
When looking exclusively at the Electoral College map, Republicans are enjoying a stronger advantage than at any point in the 25-year history of the Cook PVI. In 1997, the median Electoral College vote (located in Iowa) had a PVI score of D+1; meaning that the median Electoral College vote was one point more Democratic than the nation as a whole. By 2005, the median Electoral College state (Florida) had a PVI of R+1. In 2021, Wisconsin, with a PVI score of R+2, is the median Electoral College vote. So, if, for example, a Republican presidential candidate were to get 49 percent of the national popular vote, we should expect that Republican to get 51 percent of the vote in Wisconsin.
Fundamentally, what the Cook PVI scores make apparent is that a Republican presidential candidate can lose popular vote by narrow margin and still win an Electoral College majority. That, however, is almost impossible for a Democrat to replicate. Another way to look at it is that Democrats need to win the popular vote by at least three points (but more realistically 4 points) to feel confident that it will translate to an Electoral College win.
Note carefully that last line: “Democrats need to win the popular vote by at least three points (but more realistically 4 points) to feel confident that it will translate to an Electoral College win.”
Let’s go over what we think we know right now:
Harris is ahead nationally by 3-ish points
Trump has a history of overperforming national poll averages
Harris needs to win the popular vote by a minimum of 3 points to give her a reasonable chance of winning the electoral college
If I am a Democrat, that would dampen my enthusiasm about the election — at least slightly.
It is also true that the Democratic National Convention is next week. And that Harris could bump up even higher in the polls after four days of positive messaging and wall-to-wall press coverage.
If by Labor Day she +6 or so over Trump in national polling, Democrats can breathe a bit easier.
But, that’s a big “if.” Right now, Harris is clearly ahead. But, if recent history is a predictor, she may well not be ahead by enough.
2. Is Harris winning or is Trump losing?
This was one of the questions journalist Grant Hermes asked me when I appeared on his podcast this week.
I thought it was a GREAT question. And tried to give a thoughtful and honest answer.
See what I said in the pod below!
3. Ask Me Anything!
Every Friday, I take questions on my YouTube channel. It is SUPER fun. If you missed it, check out this week’s below. And mark your calendars for next Friday at 1 pm eastern!
NOTABLE QUOTABLE
“I will say Kamala’s name any way that I want to.” — South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, proving that she is the worst
ONE GOOD CHART
It’s hard to overstate a) how unenthusiastic the Democratic base was about Joe Biden as their nominee and b) how much swapping Biden for Kamala Harris has changed that. This chart comes courtesy of Pew.
SONG OF THE DAY
Wild Pink may be the most underrated band in the country. I LOVED “A Billion Little Lights” and “ILYSM.” If you haven’t listened to those two albums, do it now! And then check out “The Fences of Stonehenge” from their forthcoming album “Dulling the Horns.”
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Speaking of charts, and graphs, and statistics, if Chris rates a "100" (perfect score) on a chart of political/election knowledge and expertise, I'd rate myself a "1" (and that's with a generous rounding up). So take what following with lots of dashes of salt.
Harris is, in many ways, the polar opposite of Joe Biden. To be very crude, she has a pulse while Biden did not. As the new, exciting, shiny object, (in addition to the pulse), Democrats sitting on the sidelines received a jolt of caffeinated optimism. Support levels and poll numbers shot up like an arrow (as did contributions). Harris can walk and chew gum at the same time, she has a welcoming demeanor, she has avoided gaffes, and she advocates policy positions that go over well with the base. So far, so good.
If all goes well during the convention, I believe the support levels and poll numbers will bump up a bit more (perhaps to the 6% gap level that Chris mentioned), especially if she further discusses and outlines her policy positions.
If there aren't any major developments (i.e. screw-ups) between the convention and the first debate, great.
I think the first debate will have a big impact on which way the support levels and polls go from there.
Hillary had a lot of strikes against her in 2016, but she also broke the glass ceiling in the sense that she was the first credible woman candidate for President. That's one hurdle Harris doesn't have to clear. And while the MAGA cult is going to paint her with every racist label out there, I think the vast majority of Democrats - and a large chunk of independent / moderate middle voters really don't give a rats ass that she's Black, or Jamaican, or Indian. There's still far too much racism in America, but maybe we've matured to the point when a persons gender or ancestry is not a determining factor as to whether they're qualified to be President.
As we've seen at Trump's "press conferences" and rallies, Trump doesn't have a "side B", or a second chapter, or any other channels on his TV. He's a one-trick whining pony. I one hundred percent guarantee that he'll be loud and obnoxious at the debate, and he'll provide exactly zero depth about his policy positions. And if he tries to repeat the stalking moves that he made on Hillary, I have complete faith in Harris's ability to counter that (hopefully with a big SueAnn Nivens smile on her face [those of you under 60 will probably need to google that]).
Lastly, while Trump has over-performed his polling averages by 2-3 percent, I think that will be partially offset this year by an increased number of women voters turning out to vote on the various abortion rights initiatives on the ballot in many states this year.
Blind optimist, West Wing fantasizer, not grounded in reality, basically full of shit, all of the above? Quite possibly. I guess I'll just have further to fall on Wednesday, November 6th. But until then, I need to hope that enough Americans look at the two alternatives and decide to move forward with hope for a better tomorrow instead of back to a very dark past.
I surrender the soap box to the next person in line.
If we elect this toxic boob AGAIN, after all he has done and NOT done and an insurrection and stolen top secret classified documents in the BATHROOM and sold to Putin and MBS and WTF knows WHO ELSE, and 400K dead Americans on his watch from his nonexistent COVID response and besmirching and shit-talking veterans, which he did again TODAY, and we say NFW to decency and choose a FELON, then we deserve EVERY INCH of his toxic ass.
I’m going to celebrate and play ALL the music. And hope we rise to end this hideous period in American life and politics.