Did the Republican race just fundamentally change?

The Koch brothers endorse Nikki Haley.

(Nikki Haley)

The New York Times doesn’t send out email alerts for just any political news. This is the New York Times after all, people! (Sidebar: Go buy Adam Nagourney’s GREAT book on the history of the Grey Lady.)

So, when they do, I pay attention.

Which brings me to Tuesday morning — when I looked down at my phone and saw that the Times had alerted the news that Americans for Prosperity, the group started and funded by Charles and David Koch, had endorsed Nikki Haley for president. (Here’s the story.)

The message from the Times was unmistakable: This is a BIG deal.

To which I wondered: Is it really?

Let’s start on what the AFP endorsement DOES do for Haley.

First, and, I think, most importantly, it cements the fact that she is the clear alternative to Donald Trump in the presidential primary race.

Which is a) true and b) sucks for Ron DeSantis.

The Florida governor had made no secret of his desire to get the group’s endorsement and desperately needed it — amid growing signs that his once-touted campaign is all-but dead in the water.

The endorsement by AFP hands Haley (even more) momentum in the race to be the not-Trump of the field — coming on the heels of a series of strong debate performances and improved polling numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire.

It also is likely to continue the march of major donors into her camp. Which matters as Haley tries to scale up her organizations not just in early states but also beyond — in an effort to wage an extended campaign against Trump.

Speaking of those early-state organizations, the AFP endorsement also helps Haley on that front. AFP has spent years building a political and voter ID operation across the country — a machine that will now work on Haley’s behalf.

As the Times noted:

But Ms. Haley’s campaign does not have the organizational strength that Mr. DeSantis does, thanks to work the super PAC affiliated with his campaign has been doing for much of the year.

The endorsement from the super PAC established by the Koch brothers could help change that. It will give her access to a direct-mail operation, field workers to knock on doors and people making phone calls to prospective voters in Iowa and beyond. The group has money to spend on television advertisements, as well.

So, it’s not nothing! You’d rather have the AFP endorsement than not!

Does it fundamentally change the Republican race for president? It does not.

I am a bit of a broken record on this but let me remind you about a few facts about the 2024 GOP primary:

1. Donald Trump is leading nationally by almost 50 points

2. Trump’s lead in Iowa is almost 30 points

3. Trump is up by 27 points in New Hampshire

4. Trump’s supporters are more committed to him than the backers of any other candidate are to them

5. Republicans believe that Trump represents their best chance of beating Joe Biden next year

6. Attempts to bring Trump down — primarily via TV ads — have repeatedly failed

Look. I think there is a clear desire for there to be a real race for the Republican nomination. I think this desire is based, primarily, among the largest donors to the GOP — the vast majority of which a) can’t stand Trump and b) believe he is the weakest general election candidate against Biden and c) want to win.

That desire has taken any number of forms over the course of the last year. It animated the DeSantis boomlet in early 2023. And the notion that maybe just maybe Tim Scott’s sunny optimism was the antidote to toxic Trumpism. It sure as heck was behind the always-fantastical idea that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin was going to be a last-minute entrant into the race and topple Trump.

But there’s a reason that desire is unrequited. Because there’s no there there. Major donors may want someone else other than Trump to be the nominee. And they may be willing to spend millions of their own money on that effort. But, no matter how much they spend it won’t change the governing dynamic of the race: Republican base voters, who decide the presidency, want Trump. Period.

NBC’s “First Read” newsletter — a worthy sign-up! — broke this fact down in blunt terms on Wednesday morning.

The authors write:

There’s one big problem for Haley, however: The GOP coalition that’s propelling her rise isn’t necessarily a winning hand in today’s Republican Party.

According to the latest national NBC News poll, Haley’s voters – those who pick her either as their first or second choice in the GOP presidential primary – are disproportionately moderates and college-educated Republicans.

And they include two charts that make that case even more starkly.

First is a breakdown of the share of voters who say Haley is their first or second choice:

Now, that same chart for people saying Trump is their first or second choice:

Moderates and college educated Republicans don’t decide the Republican nominee these days. Very conservative and non-college educated Republicans do.

Being the choice of the moderate/college educated wing of the Republican party is something! Especially in New Hampshire where centrist GOPers and independents have much more of a say in who wins.

But it’s just not even close to enough to beat Trump for the nomination.

Again, I get the interest in making the 2024 primary look like a real dog fight. Or at least a race that is narrowing. Or could narrow. Or whatever.

That’s just not the reality in the numbers, however. The reality is this: Barring a cataclysm, Donald Trump is going to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.