Donald Trump is running away with this thing

Let's face facts.

(Donald Trump)

There is a a tendency — once bitten, twice shy and all that — to avoid making predictions about political races.

It’s always too early and things can change. The race isn’t fully engaged yet. Campaigns are only starting to spend their money. Regular people aren’t paying attention. Just wait. Everything could be different.

Which, usually, is an idea (or ideas) I abide by. Things do change in politics. All the time. Past predictions often look foolish in hindsight.

But, I also think our prediction trepidation can keep us from seeing a reality that is often right in front of our faces. We are so focused on the potential variables that can change that we fail to see the constants.

That’s, I think, what is happening in the Republican presidential race right now.

The fact — literally indisputable — is not only is Donald Trump the overwhelming favorite to be the party’s nominee in 2024 but he is also a stronger frontrunner today than he was 6 months ago.

Let’s go through a few numbers and figures.

Start here: Trump’s lead over his nearest rival — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — is nearly 40 points. And that lead has only grown over the course of the last few months.

The Real Clear Politics polling trend line tells the story of the race in stark terms.

Two things to notice from that chart:

1. Trump is now well over 50% — on average — despite the size of the GOP field.

2. While DeSantis has collapsed — slowly but surely — over the past few months, no one else has emerged to carry the standard as the Trump alternative in the race.

That’s the 50,000 foot view. Which is incredibly impressive for Trump. But so too is the 5,000 foot view — as expressed in new polling from CNN.

A few numbers to consider there:

1. 43% of Republicans have DEFINITELY decided to support him for the nomination

2. Almost two thirds(!) rank him as either their first or second choice

3. 61% think he is likely to wind up as the Republican nominee

4. A majority — 56% — of Republicans are not concerned that the various charges swirling around Trump will affect his ability to win the general election.

5. 61% say the charges Trump faces — he is under indictment in four separate cases — are the result of “political abuse of the justice system.”

Now, take a step back.

Trump is an overwhelming leader in primary polls. There is, to date, no emergence of — or seeming interest in — a candidate offering themselves as an alternative to Trump.

The thought that Trump’s multiple indictments might hurt — or at least slow — his candidacy has been proven utterly false. In fact, the opposite has been true: Trump’s campaign has strengthened in the face of his multiple indictments.

And, over the past 9 months, the nature of the race — thanks in large part to those indictments — has changed. In January, it felt like the primary race would be a referendum on whether Donald Trump was a good or a bad thing for the broader Republican party. Now, the race feels like a crusade — Donald Trump vs a corrupt justice system out to get him.

Do this thought experiment: Consider the last 6 or so months of the race. Now ask yourself what could possibly come in the next 6 months that could alter the contest’s current trajectory.

I did this myself. And the only thing I came up with was some sort of catastrophic health event that renders Trump unable to continue to run. Which is, of course, a possibility! He is 77 years old and, despite his 215 pound weigh-in during his arraignment in Fulton County (HA!), he is not in great physical shape.

But, aside from that, I was unable to think of a SINGLE thing that would change the course of this race — knowing what we now know about the Republican electorate and what they want.

Now, maybe you are more creative than I am! And can think of a bunch of different ways that the race can change. But I doubt it.

Like, just an example, let’s say that DeSantis win the Iowa caucuses next January. Do you really believe that would fundamentally upend the race and/or significantly impact Trump’s chances of being the nominee?

I don’t. While I could see a path where DeSantis (or someone other than Trump) wins the caucuses, I don’t see a scenario where Trump doesn’t claim that he was somehow cheated out of that victory. And, in so doing, badly muddles any momentum that DeSantis might get coming out of Iowa.

In fact, we don’t have to imagine this. It’s exactly what Trump did in 2016 when he lost the Iowa caucuses to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. And it worked! Trump crushed in New Hampshire and South Carolina — the start of his march to the nomination.

The counter to all of this is that, at some point, Republicans will wise up and realize that nominating Trump gives them the worst possible chance of beating President Joe Biden next November.

That — I confidently predict — will not happen. A July poll by Monmouth University showed that 7 in 10 Republicans believe that Trump is the strongest general election candidate they can nominate. Just 31% believe another candidate would be stronger.

Couple that with the large majority of Republicans who believe that Trump’s indictments are entirely politically motivated and you see how little appetite there is for someone other than Trump as the GOP standard-bearer in 2024.

Look. It’s September 6. The first votes of the Republican race won’t happen for another 131 days.

But, put me in the camp that says that there is very little out there in the ether that can alter the Republican race in a meaningful way. And that there is very little interest from the Republican electorate to pick someone not named “Donald Trump” as their nominee.

In short: This could be one of the most boring primary seasons in a very long time. This is Donald Trump’s race and Donald Trump’s party. And I don’t see that changing any time soon.