Donald Trump is weaker than he looks

And why it matters for November.

Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for president. But there’s something in the polls that bears watching. I detail it all below.

On Saturday, as expected, Donald Trump cruised to a 60%-40% victory over Nikki Haley in her home state South Carolina primary.

I paid, admittedly, limited attention to this fact. (Saturday was also my older son’s 15th birthday, which, um, mattered a lot more to me.)

But in scrolling through Twitter X after the fact, two tweets (are we still calling them that?) jumped out at me.

The first came from Adam Carlson, a former Democratic pollster:

The second came from my friend Amy Walter, who runs the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan handicapping site:

Both make a similar point. Carlson notes that in each of the three contested early-voting states (the Nevada caucuses were not contested) Trump had underperformed where polling suggested he would be. Amy adds another layer — and a critical one: Polls get right how much of the vote Trump wins but tend to overestimate the margin by which he wins by.

My big takeaways are this:

1. Trump generally gets around the amount of the vote the aggregate of polling says he will get

2. He gets ZERO above that number.

Add those two things up and the conclusion seems obvious: Trump has a hard ceiling. The people who are for him are for him — and they won’t be moved off that position. BUT, he isn’t winning any last-minute deciders. Like, none.

To be clear: This makes NO difference in the primary. None. Donald Trump is going to be the Republican presidential nominee. He’s going to win Michigan tomorrow. Then he’s going to win all of the 15 Super Tuesday states (plus American Samoa) a week from tomorrow. At which point, I have to assume, Nikki Haley will drop from the race.

But, the notion that Trump has a hard ceiling DOES have real import as we consider the general election against President Joe Biden.

Because here’s where that polling stands right now, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average:

Trump: 46.7%

Biden 44.8%

And here’s where the 5-way race stands, according to RCP:

Trump: 41%

Biden: 37.5%

RFK Jr.: 13.8%

Cornel West: 2.5%

Jill Stein: 2.2%

Those numbers, on their face, are not great for Biden. Unless you assume that Trump’s number — especially in the two-way vote is as high as he can possibly go.

A look back at the 2016 and 2020 results provide some back up for that idea.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 48% of the popular vote to 45.9% for Trump. In 2020, Biden won 51.3% to Trump’s 46.8%.

The 46.8% Trump got in 2020 is eerily similar to the 46.7% that he is currently averaging in the RCP polling average, no?

Now, before Democrats get too excited, let me offer a few caveats:

1. Because of the electoral college slant toward Republicans, Trump WON the White House in 2016 despite winning only 45.9% of the popular vote.

2. The 5-way race is likely a closer approximation of what the contest will actually look like in November. (RFK Jr. is in the midst of a mad dash to get on the ballot in dozens of states.)

Those two facts mean that even if you believe that Trump has a hard ceiling somewhere right around 46% (and I do), there are still multiple ways that he can win the presidency in November.

So, there’s THAT. But, I do think that it is worthwhile — when reading the hundreds of polls that will come out between now and November 5 — to remember that Trump’s number in those polls may well be very close to his final number at the ballot box.

Simply put: Undecideds have never broken for Trump in any meaningful way in a general election setting. There’s no reason to believe that they will this time around.