Donald Trump just bet his presidency on Iran
Color me surprised.
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I will admit that Donald Trump surprised me.
I expected that after buying time with his I-will-make-a-decision-in-the-next-two-weeks pronouncement late in the week that Trump would wait (and wait) until he could find a way to make a deal with Iran on its nuclear ambitions.
My thinking went like this: Trump sees himself as the world’s greatest dealmaker. His decision to press “pause” on the potential of a U.S. strike against Iran’s nuclear development capabilities bought him time to make a deal — and, in the process, cement his legacy as the American president who brought (some) peace to the Middle East.
Instead Trump made a different legacy-defining move — giving the thumbs up to a series of bombings of Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday night.
Why did he do it? Well, he had long said Iran could not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. And he believed this was the moment when the country had been weakened sufficiently — by Israeli strikes over the last week — to hit at Iran’s nuclear program with the least possible risk to American lives. He also had clearly concluded that a deal with Iran over ending its nuclear program was not realistic.
And then there’s this: While Trump likes to be a deal-maker, he also fashions himself as a) tough and b) resolute. And backing away — amid the whole “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO) thing — would have looked weak. Trump hates to look weak.
Regardless of all of the reasons he decided to militarily wade into Iran — something his predecessors had steadfastly refused to do after what happened in Iraq — what’s now clear is that Trump has just bet his presidency (or at least a BIG chunk of it) on his ability to keep Iran from retaliating and/or this becoming a broader regional or worldwide conflict.
Let me explain.
