Donald Trump really *is* forever
He's not going away.
Donald Trump said a LOT this weekend. Dozens of posts on Truth Social. Two speeches at Republican party events.
But there’s only one quote of his that truly matters — as we try to understand the state of the Republican party and the 2024 race.
“I’ll never leave. Look, if I would have left, I would have left prior to the original race in 2016. That was a rough one. In theory that was not doable.”
Now, Trump was responding — specifically — to a question about whether he would leave the race if he was convicted on any of the charges in the 37-count indictment laid out by federal prosecutors last week.
But, I think there’s WAY more in his answer than just whether he will stay in the race if he is convicted. I think that quote is to be taken literally: Donald Trump is NEVER going to go away.
Way back in 2019, Jonathan V. Last, my favorite writer, wrote a post entitled “Trump is Forever” that included these lines:
Either a year from now or five years from now, Donald Trump will step away from the presidency. Raise your hand if you think he will retire to Mar-a-Lago and delete his Twitter account.
It seems much more likely—maybe inevitable—that once he leaves office, Trump will continue to tweet and call in to cable news shows. Perhaps he will even attend political rallies, which is the part of the job he seems to enjoy most.
There is no reason to think—none at all—that he will discontinue his penchant for weighing in on American politics on an hourly basis. There is every reason to think that he will vigorously attack any Republican who was disloyal to him during his administration. Or retroactively criticizes his tenure. Or runs in opposition to one of his preferred candidates. Or jeopardizes any of his many and varied interests.
What this means is that there is no way for a Trump-skeptical Republican to simply wait out the Trump years. There will be no “life after Trump” because Trump is going to be the head boss of Republican politics for the rest of his days.
At the time, I remember reading it and being skeptical. I thought that if Trump lost the 2020 election, it would serve as a clear line of demarcation — an obvious moment in which the GOP would realize (or at least finally be willing to say publicly) that the billionaire businessman was a) bad for business and b) that it was time to put him in the rearview mirror.
I did not imagine that Trump, having lost, would refuse to concede. Or that he would help foment an armed rebellion at the U.S. Capitol on January 6. Or that, in spite of all of that, he would remain in not just a position of power but the position of power within the Republican party.
And yet, here we are. Not only is Trump still relevant, he is still dominant. He is far more powerful today than he was at this point in the 2016 race and there’s at least an argument to be made that his support is stronger today — among the core of the Republican base — than it was during his presidency.
Now let’s go back to that quote — and parse it a bit more. Here it is again:
“I’ll never leave. Look, if I would have left, I would have left prior to the original race in 2016. That was a rough one. In theory that was not doable.”
When asked about leaving the 2024 race, Trump goes all the way back to 2016 as his frame of reference. Which, well, weird. since he just totally skips over the election he lost in 2020.
And, his entire focus is on the fact that he might have left the “original race” because he might not have been able to win. (“In theory that was not doable.”)
Which speaks to the fact that — as I have long believed — the tipping point for Trump was early in the 2016 race when it wasn’t clear if he would have any significant support within the Republican party.
Once it became clear that there was an appeal, Trump was off to the races — and he never looked back. And he never will.
That’s why I think his “I’ll never leave” proclamation is about much more than just the 2024 race.
I think it’s meant to be taken literally. He is here to stay — no matter what happens in 2024.
Consider this: Can you imagine Trump bowing out of the 2024 primary race if, in the end, Ron DeSantis wins more delegates? Not a chance in hell! He will insist that he was cheated (as he has every time he has lost any election.)
And Trump will either run as a third party candidate (if sore loser laws allow him to) or just be a general nuisance for the Republican party in the general election.
It’s equally unfathomable to consider that Trump would concede a(nother) loss to Biden next November.
He is already seeding the ground to claim election interference — sending out message after message that suggests his twin indictments are politically motivated and designed to hurt his chances of winning the presidency again.
Trump is not going to just drop that line of thought if/when he loses. He will double and triple down on it.
Which is why the idea of Trump running for president in 2028 is not nearly so far fetched as it might seem.
I now believe two things are true about Trump and the GOP:
Trump will never willingly give up power
The Republican party’s leaders won’t try to forcefully take power from him
Given those facts, there is simply no way that Donald Trump will disappear or even fade from his current role within the Republican party. As long as he is alive, he will be the dominant force within the GOP. He will never leave.
This is sad but true. Your readers for whom Watergate is history rather than lived experience should look up the meeting between Nixon and the Republican senators (including Barry Goldwater!) who told him it was time to go. The spinelessness of today's GOP leadership is what helps Trump keep going.
He is addicted to the attention and power he feels from his base. That lights him up. That is his oxygen. His core being needs to be adored and they are his crack.