Election night 2024: Where We Are

Advantage Trump

It’s 10 pm on the East Coast.

I am about to start my livestream on YouTube, which you should check out! It’s fun!

But before I do, I wanted to give you a quick update.

To this point in the night, things have gone well for Donald Trump.

Decision Desk HQ has called North Carolina for him. Georgia remains uncalled but the people I am talking to think that, eventually, Trump will win it.

If he does, the electoral map will look like this:

Which means that if Trump wins Pennsylvania, the race is over.

If Harris does lose North Carolina and Georgia, her path to 270 is extremely narrow: She needs to win the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If she does that — and she wins Nebraska’s 2nd district (and the single electoral vote it awards) she would be right at 270. And she would be president.

Anything short of that and she likely loses.

That reality is why the New York Times Needle — a projection based on current results — says that the race is leaning Trump at the moment:

Decision Desk HQ, another data site that feeds projections and predictions to the networks, gives Trump a 71% chance of winning.

To be clear: THE RACE IS NOT OVER. Harris can win PA, WI and MI and be president. But, that now looks like the only way she will be president — unless the results in Georgia turn around.

I’ll be back with updates as they warrant. Thanks as always for your support.