Friday Mailbag! ✉️
It's baaaaack
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The most common question I get asked is: “How did you get so handsome?” 😂😂😂
The second most common question? “Did you get rid of the Mailbag?!?!?”
Answer: No!
I am always thinking of ways to evolve what I do — keeping the foundation that people love while also trying to expand into new and different areaas.
At the start of this year, I introduced a new Friday feature — “Worst Week in Washington” — that I am super excited about.
But I only have so much time to write in a day! Which means that I am not going to be doing a Mailbag every Friday. My current thinking is that I will aim to do it twice-ish a month.
(Sidebar: The Mailbag is an interesting Rorschach test. Some subscribers LOVE it. Some are like “You can go ahead and stop doing that feature whenever.” Ha!)
For this week’s mailbag I used my paid subscribers chat on Substack to solicit questions. Which seems like a good way to do it! Not a paid subscriber? Become one today!
I answered a whole bunch of questions below. If I didn’t get to yours, never fear! I am hosting a livestream at my YouTube channel at 1 pm eastern today. So head over there and let’s chat!
Everyone can read my first few answers in the Friday Mailbag. But only PAID subscribers get access to the full Mailbag. What else do you get as a paid subscriber? Glad you asked!
Exclusive access to my weekly Monday podcast with Chuck Todd.
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Exclusive access to my rankings of the 2026 Senate playing field and the 2028 presidential race
Exclusive access to “Worst Week in Washington”
Let’s open the mail! (Soundtrack for this Mailbag: “Tragic Magic” by Julianna Barwick and Mary Lattimore)
Q: What do you think the chances are that the Democrats will gain the majority in both the House and Senate?
A: It’s always a little challenging to put an exact percentage on this stuff with 10 months left before the election.
But I think I am over 80% that Democrats win back the House — for two reasons. First, Republicans have an absolutely tiny majority so flipping it won’t take much work or many seats. Second, the history of midterm elections with an unpopular president in the White House are pretty damn catastrophic for his party in the House.
The Senate is far less likely to go for Democrats. I would put that around 33% chance right now. As I wrote this week, however, I do think there is now a credible path to the majority for Democrats — thanks to Mary Peltola in Alaska.
Democrats still need a lot to go right for them to win back the Senate though. North Carolina and Maine are must-haves. And they need to also win 2 of these 4: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. And, oh yeah, they can’t lose any of their own seats in places like Michigan and Georgia.
Q: What influence does Barack Obama have on the Dem party these days?
A: Some? I mean, he (and his wife) are probably the best known and best liked Democrats in the country — still. That matters. As does the fact that Barack Obama remains the best fundraising draw for Democrats nationally.
But, Obama is a former president. He’s not involved in the day-to-day grind. And I don’t think he wants to be!
There have been lots of Democrats — electeds and rank and file — who have publicly pined for Obama to get more involved during the ten-plus years of Donald Trump’s domination of national politics. He has, largely, avoided doing so.
I don’t see that changing.
Q: Decision Desk recently showed that the GOP has a lower favorability rating than Dems. Yet for the past year all we heard was how out of touch the Dems were. What causes this narrative imbalance. Do we have different standards for each? For example, Dems have to be good, the GOP just doesn’t have to be a disaster?
