Friday Mailbag!

Here. We. Go.

Happy Friday!

We made it!

I am headed to Richmond, Virginia for a soccer tournament this afternoon. Which means two things:

1. I need your recommendations of places to eat, good coffee shops to go to an other fun stuff to do while there.

2. There won’t be a “Chris Crucial” newsletter tonight. I hope everyone enjoys their long Memorial Day weekend.

Lots of questions to get to — so let’s get to them! (Also, if you have time, join me over at my YouTube channel for a livestream at 1 pm eastern today. I am taking a bunch more questions there!)

Q: Hi, Chris. I've heard you say in podcasts you were going to see this through through Election Day. Should we be concerned we have less than 6 months of So What and your videos? Do you have a benchmark number in mind for paid subscriptions/YouTube subscriptions to keep going?

A: I got a few questions — via email — that are similar to this one so I figured I would address it off the top.

I did say in my conversation with Tom LoBianco at 24Sight News that I have given myself until the end of the 2024 election to see how this whole independent content creator thing is working out.

Being a 'Free' Journalist After Leaving the Big Leagues

The reality of my situation is that I have a decent amount of expenses — two kids! — and I need to ensure I meet the needs of my family first and foremost. I want that to be in journalism. I hope it can be. I am not sure yet if it will be.

So, how many paid subscribers do I need? I don’t have a hard and fast number. More, for sure. So, if you have been thinking about joining our community as a paid subscriber, I hope today is the day you decide to do it. It’s $6 a month or $60 for the year. You can also become a “founding member” — with a whole lot more perks — for $250.

Q: Can you talk me off the ledge? Biden's approval ratings are in the tank, and they don't appear to have much hope of getting any better. He's being blamed for things (like a recession) that aren't even happening. Trump could be found guilty in the hush money trial next week, but even if he is, he'll convince a large swath of the country that it's just part of the witch hunt against him. He'll probably be sentenced to probation instead of jail, so many people will think that what he did wasn't a big deal. I think there's a very good chance that we're 165 days away from sending a convicted felon back to the White House. How did we get here?

A: I am not sure if I can talk you off the ledge because the situation you lay out is pretty close to how I see it.

I think there are a few variables that could move things — marginally — in Biden’s direction though.

First, a Trump conviction in the hush money trial could have a negative impact on his numbers. Past polling has shown some chunk of people who say they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a convicted felon. I am a little skeptical that that is the thing that pushes people over the edge on Trump (after all he has said and done over the past 9 years) but maybe?

Second, the economy — or how people perceive the economy — could improve. Right now, inflation is still too high for lots of people. Things cost more than they did a few years ago. People notice that. If inflation falls, then consumer confidence will likely rise. And that could make Biden’s arguments about the economy (and his policies) more salient to voters.

Third, Trump is Trump. I think reminding people of the chaos he represents — and Trump reinforcing that message with his inability to contain himself — might work as a message for Biden (more on that in this space soon).