Friday mailbag!

Answering your questions.

(Donald Trump)

Haven’t preordered my book yet? Do it here!

It has been a week.

From the arrest of former President Donald Trump to the expulsion of two Tennessee House Democrats over gun control protests, we saw the beginnings of the 2024 political environment beginning to form.

Let’s get to the questions you had. And don’t forget today is always a good day to subscribe to the newsletter — either free or paid!

Q: Can you talk about the political impact of the Wisconsin and Chicago elections and what it means nationally and for the direction of both parties?

A: Sure. To me, the Chicago mayoral race has far less national meaning than the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.

In Chicago, a liberal Democrat beat a (more) moderate Democrat in a city that has been electing Democrats as mayor forever. Ho hum.

But, the Wisconsin race — for as vacant state Supreme Court seat — is more much intriguing. The race had massive amounts of money and attention on it, and functioned as a sort of a dry-run for 2024 in a swing state.

That the Democratic-aligned candidate beat the Republican one by double digits — and did so by expressly centering her campaign on the abortion ruling from the Supreme Court last year — should be very worrisome for Republicans.

I continue to think the GOP has a MAJOR problem with independents voters (more on that below) and the Wisconsin race fits directly into that reality.

Q: I am hoping for some reassuring words here. I fear that the Republican congress will refuse to raise the debt ceiling in order to crash the economy, simply to hurt Biden politically in the ensuing chaos. Surely they would never do such an asinine and self destructive thing, right???

A: Um….

Given what we have seen out of the Republican party over the last 5-7 years — and the continued supremacy of Donald Trump over the GOP — I don’t rule anything out.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy is fully in thrall to the Trump base — both within Congress and without. And the Trump base doesn’t want any compromise of any sort with President Biden or any Democrats.

Is it possible that the severity of the consequences for not raising the debt ceiling force McCarthy’s hand? Sure. We have seen lots and lots of time when leaders in both parties swore that they would never change their position only to do so in the face of real and nasty realities.

But the Biden White House continues to hold firm that there will be no compromise, nothing given to Republicans in exchange for the debt ceiling increase. If Biden keeps to that position, the ball will be in McCarthy’s court. And I have NO idea what he will ultimately do.

Q: Any chance you will start doing videos again? I always liked to hear your take on things along with your humor.

A: I DO videos! I have my own YouTube channel! It’s here! This is a good reminder that I need to promote it more/better! Here’s the latest one:

Q: What states have a chance of being competitive in the 2024 Presidential election besides the five that changed from 2016 -2020? I cannot see any additional states besides Nevada, New Hampshire and maybe North Carolina being in play. You and Gary Braun really need your own podcast!

A: I tend to agree with you that the 2024 playing field is going to look a lot like the 2020 playing field — especially if we get another Biden-Trump matchup.

New Hampshire was (relatively) close in 2020 — Biden won by 7 points — and I suppose could be seen as a swing state in 2024. Ditto Minnesota — given that Trump has shown an ability to be competitive in the industrial Midwest. I am still skeptical that Democrats have a chance in Texas anytime soon — although Trump did win the state by less than 6 points in 2020.

(BTW: Here’s a list of the 10 closest states in 2020. It’s probably where the race will be fought again.)

Q: I recently saw a poll that indicated 76% of independents believe the Trump Indictment is at least partially motivated by politics…and 62% of them support it anyway. I know, just one poll, but is it indicative of the larger issue that may haunt Trump / The GOP even if the situation boosts his standing within the party? It feels like independents by and large do not like Biden, but hate Trump more.

A: Absolutely yes.

To me, Trump is, without question a) the most likely Republican nominee in 2024 and b) the weakest nominee Republicans could possibly choose.

The reason for that is because of independents. Trump’s erosion among them has been significant. He actually won independents by 6 points over Hillary Clinton in 2020. He lost them by 13 to Biden four years later. And, as I documented in this post, his numbers among independents were pretty bad (and consistently bad) before the indictment/arrest came down.

I am on record as being skeptical that Trump’s arrest changes much of anything in the race for president. And one of the main reasons for that is I think indies have already made up their minds on Trump — they don’t like him and won’t vote for him.

It’s a massive problem for Republicans who want to win the White House next fall. And I have no idea how they solve it.

Q: What's your favorite part of writing books? And least favorite?

A: My favorite part of writing books is the actual writing process. I have always loved translating interviews, thoughts and analysis into words. And then seeing those words cohere — hopefully — on paper.

Least favorite part? The waiting between when you actually finish writing the book and when it comes out. For example, with my new book, which is out April 18, I finished the writing on Labor Day 2022. Labor Day!

Speaking of my new book, it’s called “Power Players: Sports, Politics and the American Presidency.” It details the sports that presidents — from Eisenhower to Biden — have played, spectated and loved, and what it tells us about them. It’s a fun read — and a great gift for the dad or grad in your life!

You can preorder it here.

Q: Hi Chris. I look forward to getting my copy of your book at the end of the month. Any good soccer stories in there that you can share?

Yes!

So, Bill Clinton, growing up in the South in the middle of the last century wasn’t a huge soccer fan. The sport barely existed for him.

But, in the White House Clinton embraced soccer —big time. He delivered the opening remarks of the 1994 men’s World Cup in the United States; “the love of soccer is now a universal language that binds us all together,” Clinton said at the time.

Even after leaving office, Clinton stayed interested in soccer. He was at the U.S.’s quarterfinal game in Washington during the women’s World Cup in 1999. Clinton was also in the locker room two games later when the women’s national team won the World Cup in penalty kicks.

One sour note: Clinton was HUGELY involved in the U.S.’s 2010 bid to win the 2022 World Cup. Clinton was in attendance at the awarding ceremony that FIFA held in Zurich and spoke to the governing body.

“The whole thing was a disaster of epic proportions,” the late Grant Wahl told me for the book. “Clinton spoke forever about things that had nothing to do with soccer.”

Soundsa familiar?!

BUY THE BOOK!

Q: La Cheeserie. I'm sorry for your loss. This tea-sip Texas alum read the obit and your father-in-law was wonderful man. I recall your father passed away a few years ago and you inherited a baseball card collection. I have the same. I do not have the time or inclination to go through it. I'm wondering how did you do it?

A: Thank you. (For those who don’t know, may father-in-law died suddenly a few weeks ago. I wrote about him here.)

So, with my dad’s baseball card collection, I decided to sell it in lots through an auction house. There were a few really valuable cards in there — a bunch of Michael Jordan rookie cards (although mine didn’t sell for this price) — and a lot of much less valuable stuff.

If you need specific advice or the auction house I used, which I liked, just email me at cillizzac@gmail.com.

Q: Why do people contribute money to Donald Trump? Even if one thought he was great he claims to be a multi-billionaire and therefore would have no need for cash contributions.

A: Donations are a way of showing support. And Donald Trump still has lots and lots of support — especially among the Republican base.

Though your question does remind me of something that always nags me about Trump.

He tells anyone who asks (and lots of people who don’t ask!) about how rich he is. And he repeatedly pledged to use that money to finance his campaign if he ran.

He told Ashleigh Banfield all the way back in 2011 that he thought it would take between $500-$600 million to run for president. “I’d put up a lot,” Trump said. “If I didn’t get people helping me, I’d put up all of it. Depending on how I’m doing.”

In that same interview, he said: “I mean part of the beauty of me is that I’m very rich. So $600 million — I can put up $600 million myself. That’s a huge advantage. That’s a huge advantage over the other candidates.”

But, when actually did run for president, Trump spent far less: $66 million in 2016. In 2020, Trump gave $8,000.

Q: Who is your baseball team, and why?

A: I grew up in southern Connecticut and, like most people around me, was a Yankees fan. The mid 80s were decidedly lean years for the Bronx Bombers; I distinctly remember Andy Hawkins throwing a no-hitter and the team still losing 3-0.

When I had kids — and Washington got a baseball team — I started rooting for the Nationals. And, 2019 was really fun. These days it’s brutal. The team is 1-6 and have scored a total of 17 runs through those 7 games. But I still watch every night. I love the rhythms of baseball.