Friday mailbag!

Your questions, answered.

Every Friday, I answer your questions from the week that was.

Today I am doing that while looking out on the Breckenridge Ski Resort — where my family and I are hanging out for a few days.

This week we are talking 2024 — and all its permutations: presidential, House, Senate and governor.

Before we get to that, a quick reminder: PLEASE subscribe and share this newsletter. We are working to build a community and I want it to be as big and robust as possible!

Q: As a Californian, I have mixed feelings about Gov. Gavin, but largely positive. Looks unlikely (?) that he would throw in for the presidency in 24, but how about 28?

A: Because I think Biden is running, I don’t think Newsom — or any other prominent Democratic politician —is going to jump in. It’s just not worth it to take such a major risk knowing that the establishment of the party is going to be behind the incumbent president.

I absolutely believe though that Newsom wants to run for national office and would make a strong candidate if and when he does. While Ron DeSantis gets all the attention in Florida, Newsom has used the perch of the California governor’s office to build a very liberal agenda in his state too. Plus, he is good looking and can raise a ton of dough — both of which can really matter in a presidential bid.

So, I don’t think he goes in 2024 — unless Biden surprises everyone by not running — but do think there is a presidential bid in Newsom’s future.

Q: I don’t think I’m alone in suffering from Trump-Biden fatigue. In a country of 330 million people, how is it that this seems to be the best we can do?

La Cheeserie!

A: I agree that it’s pretty remarkable that the current president is an 80 year old man who has run for president three times (twice unsuccessfully) and his likely opponent is a 76 year old man who just ran and lost for a second term.

Why is that? Well, I think politics is a pretty miserable profession these days — between the constant onslaught of attacks and the need to raise money constantly. It doesn’t appeal to large swaths of the country. Lots of accomplished people would rather stay outside of the political system.

Q: Will a Democratic Presidential candidate win any of the following states again in the next 20-30 years?

Texas, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana

A: First of all, it’s dangerous to predict that far in advance — just because politics is a changeable game (it’s why we love it!) and, well, stuff just happens.

But, if we are looking purely at demographics, here’s how I would rank those states — from most likely to go for Democrats in the next 20-30 years to the least:

Texas, Ohio, Missouri, Lousiana, Tennessee, Alabama.

Of that group, I only see Texas really moving in a Democratic direction over the next 20-30 years — although the recent competitiveness of the Hispanic vote in the state complicates what lots of people thought was the state’s inexorable march to going for Democrats at some point.

Q: Do you think the GOP is heading towards nominating bad candidates again in 2024 for the Senate? Rumors are out there that Lake wants to run in Arizona, Mastriano is looking at a run in PA, both house members from Montana have been rumored and both have some past issues. It feels like Steve Daines is trying to head this off a lot better than Rick Scott, but it feels like another round of bad candidates could hurt the GOP again in winnable year.

A: I DO think that Daines is trying to do more intervention to keep the party from nominating unelectable Republicans. Montana is a prime example; he’s trying to convince Tim Sheehy, a wealthy guy with a sterling resume, to run — keeping Reps. Matt Rosendale and Ryan Zinke from the nomination.

But, his job is complicated by Donald Trump and acolytes of Trump like Lake, Mastriano etc. Daines can do everything possible to keep those people from the nomination — including recruiting alternatives and throwing the power of the committee behind them — and still not be able to keep them from winning.

The Trump base remains very powerful in a Republican primary — especially when you need only 35-40% of the vote to win in a crowded race. And many of those voters won’t listen to anything the likes of Daines (or any other so called “establishment” politician). And, in fact, Daines involving himself could make the likes of Lake or Mastriano stronger (“The national party wants to pick our candidates; I think you should pick them!”)

Q: Will former (normal) GOP contolled states...like Indiana, with the true "cross the aisle" Senator Todd Young, return to the ReTrumplican't-controlled states?

A: Well, for every Todd Young, there is Rep. Jim Banks, who is the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee (and next Senator) from Indiana.

I think this is a case by case basis, honestly. Some Senators (and House members) are more inclined to work across the aisle. Others aren’t. And I think our nominating process is bent to people who tend to be on the less-compromising side of things; voters tend to respond more to those folks.

I would also note the CNN poll from earlier this week that showed that Republicans would rather nominate someone who agrees with them on issues rather than someone who has the best chance to beat Joe Biden. So, there’s that.

Q: If you could predict the future, who will be the 2024 Democratic and Republican candidates who face each other in the general election for President?

A: So, I am boring but I think the likeliest scenario is Biden vs Trump.

Biden is a bit of a no-brainer in my mind because a) I think he is going to run and b) I don’t think anyone serious is going to run against him.

As for Trump, I do think that he is weaker politically than when he was president. But, I think he is being underestimated in terms of his ongoing strength in the Republican primary.

Yes, DeSantis has built a national following. And, yes, he poses a serious threat to Trump. But, I still think he is untested on the national stage and has to show that he can go out and do it in places like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

I also think there could be room for a candidate like Nikki Haley if Trump and DeSantis — as expected — go after one another for the duration of the race. I still think she’s a bit of a long shot but she is talented and able — and I think has done a good job in the early stages of her campaign.

Q: “How do you assess the impact of social media and misinformation on the 2024 presidential election?” I did not write that question. Chat GPT did. How do you think AI will affect reporters jobs? I wrote a short piece about the 2024 election in 5 mins that was not at all bad and it was all AI answers to my questions.

A: I honestly am struggling to get my mind around what AI/ChatGPT means for how we cover elections. I know, even prior to this latest surge in interest for ChatGPT, there was a huge amount of interest in and questions around AI writing stories — even basic ones.

But the rise of even more intelligent AI creates all sorts of even more complicated questions about authorship, journalism and what it means to write something.

I would recommend people reading this from Kevin Roose and this from Ezra Klein.

Q: Any chance Andy Morales can defeat Kevin McCarthy?

A: No. Sorry to be brief but it’s just not a winnable seat.

Q: Do you see the probable lack of a presidential debate (since the RNC doesn't want to comply with the current rules) as good for Biden?

That’s a very interesting question. I guess I have been operating under the assumption that the Republicans would find a way to make the debates.

I could be wrong about that, of course. If Trump is the nominee, it could go a thousand different ways. He might want to debate because he thinks he can show up Biden and make him look weak or enfeebled. He might want to thumb his nose at the whole system. He might change his mind in the middle!

But, for the sake of argument, let’s just say there are no debates. That would mean that one of the opportunities for whoever is behind to change the dynamic of the race would disappear. Like them or hate them, people watch the debates and they do tend to have influence on the race.

Q: Should Mitch McConnell decide not to run for reelection/retire in 2024, who do you see as likely senatorial and Republican minority/majority (depending on who wins the senate) leader replacements?

A: Well, McConnell isn’t up for another term until 2026 — so it will be two more years at least. And, to be clear, I don’t think McConnell will be ousted as leader. The only way he goes out is on his own terms.

I think there are a few people who could replace him. The most obvious, for me, is South Dakota Sen. John Thune who is the Senate Minority Whip right now — the #2 position behind McConnell.

The other name you hear mentioned regularly is Wyoming Sen. John Barasso, who is currently #3 in leadership. I tend to think Thune is the better choice and is better positioned to be the next leader.