Friday mailbag!

Here we go.

Happy Friday!

We made it!

Regardless of what comes next, this is a week for the history books: Donald Trump is now the only former American president ever to be a convicted felon.

What does it all mean for the 2024 race? Let’s dig in!

Also, if you have time, join me over at my YouTube channel for a livestream at 1 pm eastern today. I am taking a bunch more questions there!

To the questions!

Q: Now that Trump has been convicted on all 34 counts, how much jail time do you think he will get? And do you expect much movement in the polls?

A: I am not a lawyer. And certainly not a judge! But, from everything I read, it’s not terribly likely that Trump actually is imprisoned — even for a short time. The felonies he was convicted of are the lowest form of felony. And he is a first-time offender. And he is 77. And did I mention he is a former president? And the current GOP nominee for president?

Add it all up and I think the odds of him facing actual jail time at under 10%. But, who knows?! It’s all in the hands of Judge Juan Merchan. Sentencing is set for July 11 — just days before the Republican National Convention is set to start.

As for the polls: Check out my post from this morning. I think we would all do well to ignore polls on the verdict for at least a week. The few people that are undecided in this race aren’t suddenly all going to move in one direction.

The election is still 5 months away. Lot of time for this to sink in.

Q: Guilty on all 34 counts. By a jury of his peers. As a convicted felon, he cannot be in the military, cannot vote in some states, cannot carry a gun and cannot work in federal employment.

A: That, I believe, is correct — although I think the not voting thing only applies if Trump is actually jailed. Like, Trump can, apparently, vote for himself in November as long as he is not imprisoned at the time.

On a related note, I was driving my boys to school this morning and my younger one — he’s 11 — asked whether Trump could still be elected president if he was in jail. I said he could. He was amazed.

The wisdom of kids!

Q: Considering all the crazy news, outside of a major health event (which I wish on no one), what can possibly change the minds of voters now?