Friday mailbag!

It's question time.

My NEW book is out. You can buy it here!

Happy Friday!

Every week I take questions from my Substack community on whatever is on your mind.

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Soundtrack for today’s chat: The new album by The National.

Ok, let’s get to the questions!

Q: Anyone listening to Trump or reading his social posts would assume they were from someone slipping into dementia if it was from a total stranger. If we can question Biden's age -- and it's fair to do so -- why not Trump's tenuous grasp of the real world? Isn't it too easy to just dismiss his out and out delusions (like the crying policemen when he was arraigned) as "narcissism?"

A: Well, first off, I do think it’s fair to ask questions about Trump’s age and competency. He’s only four years younger than Biden after all!

As to the whole “slipping into dementia” thing, I just don’t see it. (I am not, it’s worth noting, a medical doctor!) Here’s why: He has essentially been the same person his entire life — bullying, braggy and deeply insecure. I don’t see what’s changed over the last few months or years.

As in, you can loathe Trump’s personality but it’s his personality! And having covered him for a bunch of years, I don’t see any appreciable changes in that personality.

If Trump suddenly started acting docile and nice, well, that would be something else. But I don’t see it.

Q: I am so annoyed by the constant drum beat about President Biden's age. Every writer has to say something about it. Why is that? Seems to me you and others are making an issue out of it by constantly repeating it. Yes, pollsters ask the question. But why? The point is meaningless. Shouldn't the focus be on accomplishments, plans, differences between the candidates' policies, etc. and especially, whether we want to live in a democracy or under one-man rule?

A: The point is NOT meaningless. Joe Biden is the oldest person ever to serve as president. And the oldest person to ever run for a 2nd term.

Those are facts. And poll after poll shows that the American public is concerned about it — and see it as the main reason they don’t want Joe Biden to run again.

Now, to your point — age is A factor in this race, not THE factor. What Biden has done in office absolutely matters. As does how voters, broadly, feel about him.

All of those things will mix and matter in voters’ minds. But, to suggest that Biden’s advanced age — and what that means for how he could and would handle a second term — is simply to ignore what the public is saying about him and a 2nd term.

As I wrote this week: Democrats are taking a MASSIVE risk in nominating Biden again. it may wind up paying off, but it’s a risk nonetheless.

Q: Will any Democrat run a serious primary challenge to Biden?

A: That depends on how you define “serious.” A new poll came out this week that showed Biden at 62% with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 19% and Marianne Williamson at 9%.

That poll surprised me a little bit. It suggests that there is 30-ish% of the Democratic electorate who will find a way NOT to vote for the incumbent president of the United States.

That said, I don’t think Kennedy Jr. and Williamson qualify as a “serious” primary challenge to Biden because I don’t see any path to victory (or even close) for either of them.

To me, it’s somewhat remarkable — and a testament to Biden’s political team — that a more serious primary challenge didn’t emerge. His poll numbers are NOT good; a majority of Democrats don’t want him to run again.

But, he’s not going to lose to Kennedy Jr. or Williamson.

Q: Why isn't there a Democrat of national standing who is willing to step up and take on the President in a primary. As you have pointed out, Biden's numbers show real vulnerability. If there were a Democrat to run and beat Biden, the likely general election opponent is a deeply flawed and independent-voter unpopular Trump. I can't imagine a better scenario for an ambitious, nationally-known Democrat. To wait to '28 against a tsunami of candidates seems foolhardy! What gives? There was a time when incumbent presidents drew primary challengers, where have the ultimate political ambitions gone?

A: Here’s the logic against running (and I am not sure I totally agree with it):

1. You are not likely to win because beating an incumbent president in a primary fight is damn near impossible even when that incumbent has middling poll numbers (See Ted Kennedy vs Jimmy Carter in 1980).

2. You piss off the entire party establishment in the process — and they seek to exact their revenge on you the next time you run for president.

Again, I am not totally sure I buy into that — for a few reasons but the biggest being that I don’t know that the party establishment has as much power as it thinks it has. Trump ran roughshod over the GOP party establishment in 2016 and never looked back.

I think the establishment then may have a emperor-has-no-clothes thing going on — but we aren’t going to find out if that’s true in this election because all of the big players (Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, J.B. Pritzker) took a pass.

Q: The likelihood of Biden vs Trump running for president (again) simply makes no sense. Why can't Democrats and Republicans provide any real alternatives? More than 300 million Americans and we will have to settle for a presidential "rerun?"

A: It’s a good point. And one that people have been making for a while now; I still remember when it looked like 2016 was going to be Hillary Clinton (former First Lady) against Jeb Bush (brother and son of former presidents).

I think we have to accept this fact: Running for political office is not an appealing prospect for the vast majority of people in this country. The prospect of running for president, I think, has become so unappealing to LOTS of people that we don’t get a lot of new entrants into the arena. And so we wind up with a lot of the same faces, people who are, for whatever reason, drawn to the profession.

You can understand why. Politics is so ugly and so bruising that to volunteer for it seems insane. Until we make the job — and running for the job — more appealing, I don’t see a whole lot of new people wanting to be involved.

Q: Do you see any way that a Democrat might defeat Ted Cruz in Texas, Josh Hawley in Missouri or Rick Scott in Florida? Are there any Republican Senators up for reelection in 2024 who might be vulnerable?

A: Short answer: No.

Longer answer: I could see Cruz and Scott, at least, having to run real races of Democrats can recruit quality candidates against them.

In Texas, for example, Rep. Colin Allred is reportedly looking at running against Cruz. That would give Democrats a serious and able candidate who would make Cruz work for another term. But Cruz would still be a clear favorite to win.

The field in Florida is murkier but if, say, former Rep. Stephanie Murphy ran, she would raise real money and run a serious campaign. Again, though, she would start the race against Scott as a clear underdog — especially given how far to the right Florida moved in 2022.

Missouri is gone for Democrats for the time being. Just no chance that Hawley loses.

Q: Will Tucker run for office? Aaaaacccckkkkkkk

A: Ha!

Look, after Donald Trump got elected in 2016, I stopped making predictions about thing that absolutely can’t happen.

So, I won’t make a hard and fast prediction that Tucker won’t run for office. I will say this: I think it’s very unlikely he runs for president in 2024 because Donald Trump is already in the race. There’s not a huge amount of separation between followers of Trump and Tucker — and I think Tucker knows that.

If I had to guess, I would think that Tucker doesn’t run for anything. I think his interest is in the media space — still — and the success of his video from earlier this week makes me think that he has a future in the creator economy, and knows it.

Q: What are the odds of Republicans letting go of the far right hold-outs in the house and getting a handful of moderate Democrats to raise the debt dealing with instead?

A: Very low.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy knows that his hold on the office is entirely dependent on the House Freedom Caucus — the Trumpiest members in the chamber.

So, he could make a deal with moderate Democrats to raise the debt limit sure, but the next day, those House Freedom Caucus members would try to force him out of the Speakership — and might well succeed.

It’s that reality that makes me think that defaulting on the debt is a live possibility. Biden has been adamant that he won’t accept anything under than a clean debt limit increase and I don’t think McCarthy’s politics in the House will allow that.

And McCarthy HAS to stick to his guns here because, if he doesn’t the mechanisms to oust him are so easy. He made sure of that when he cut a million deals with Freedom Caucus members to get the speakership in the first place.

Q: I figured I'd ask another book process question-

I know you have a lot of experience during media, but do you enjoy doing press and talking about yourself and your book? Is it nerve-wracking? Do you mind answering a lot of the same questions?

A: Good question!

I have done so many interviews over the years that it’s not terribly nerve-wracking anymore. ( I DO still get a little nervous when I do TV though.)

The questions are, often, similar and that can be a little challenging — mostly because I tend to forget who I’ve told a story to, and always worry about repeating myself like a robot.

All that said talking about the book is REALLY fun. It reminds me why I decided to write it in the first place and why I am proud of how it turned out.

REMINDER: You can but the book here. (And you should!)

Q: I’m excited to read your new book! I have learned a lot about music (and you) from listening to your suggestions and playlists. How about exploring music and chief executives (US Presidents) for your next book? It could be enlightening!

A: I LOVE it! Now let’s see if any publishing house wants to make another book with me!