Friday Mailbag!
It's happening.
Happy Friday!
We made it! (Although our retirement savings might not!)
I mean, what is there to say? Donald Trump is literally trying to wrench the global economy into protectionism. And, in so doing, remake the alliances that have existed since the end of World War II.
Other than that, nothing big is happening!
Below I answered a bunch of your questions about a) where we are and b) where we’re going.
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Q: With Trump destroying the economy and firing people involved in life saving jobs, how bad do you think it will get before there is sufficient opposition to effectively change things for the better? We know Trump will never admit he was wrong…
A: A very good question that I will openly admit I don’t know the answer to.
Is there a tipping point for elected Republicans? A line which they — en masse — won’t cross? I tend to think there is but I am not totally sure where it is.
To be clear: The vast majority of Republicans in Congress believe that Trump’s latest tariff proposals are terrible politics. Many may even think it’s bad policy.
Are they going to publicly rebel against him 48 hours after “Liberation Day”? I doubt it. So far there’s been grumbling but nothing organized.
I think that could change if the stock market continues its downward trajectory. And if Trump’s poll numbers — and those of the broader Republican party — take a hit.
All that said, Trump has been busting norms for a decade now. And with the exception of the immediate aftermath of the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape, you haven’t seen any large-scale Republican revolt against him.
Q: I didn't take all my money out of the stock market, but fortunately I don't need the money - at the moment. Nonetheless, the cumulative loss of wealth, paper or otherwise, has to work against Trump - or does it?
A: It has to. Now, he is in the first three months of his presidency. He’s got 45 months before he leaves office. That’s a very long time in political terms. Which means that it’s possible by 2028 we look at these tariffs differently than we do today.
The problem for Republicans writ large is that they aren’t on the same political timeline as Trump. They will face voters in November 2026. And while that’s still a ways off too, the political damage he is inflicting on the GOP right now won’t immediately wear off — even if he cuts a bunch of trade deals with other countries in the next month.
People don’t like uncertainty. They don’t like when the stock market goes down. They don’t like when stuff costs more money. There’s a political price — ahem — to pay for that.
Q: Rank these in order of importance to the electorate: (i) inflation; (2) unemployment; (3) stock market; (4) budget deficits; (5) interest rates.
A: Good one!
Inflation
Stock Market
Interest Rates
Unemployment
Budget Deficits
If I could rank budget deficits lower, I would have.
Q: You’ve mentioned before that the Democratic brand is now toxic. How much of [Susan] Crawford’s 10 point win margin in swing state Wisconsin do you think is attributed to the fact that there was no “D” party designation next to her name on the ballot?
