Friday Mailbag! 📬
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Q: For Platner, I get it he could not have won if he stayed in, but he could not be forced out either. What kind of sweetheart deal would the Democrats would have given to make it palatable? Secondly, what chance does Collin’s have now in winning?
A: You’re right that, technically, no one could force Platner out of the race. He won the nomination last month fair and square. And if he wanted (or wants) to just keep running, he can.
(Sidebar: Platner said Wednesday that he was going to withdraw from the race. On Thursday, he said he planned to formally remove himself from the ballot this coming Monday — the last day he legally can do so. Hmmmmm.)
If you believe Platner’s stated reason for withdrawing, it’s that he realized that “for the movement to continue” he needed to step aside — his personal problems had simply become too big a distraction.
My guess is he (probably) believes that. I also think the strain on his personal life — especially his wife — is immense and would only get worse if he stayed in the race. And I think Platner wants to preserve the possibility of running again some day — he’s only 41! — and realized that if he ran a quixotic bid this year it would likely end his political career.
As for Collins, I think she has a slightly worse chance of winning now than she did against Platner. Platner was such a damaged candidate due to all of the revelations about him that Collins could have made the race a choice between the two of them. Now it’s likely to be a referendum on her and her party — and that’s bad news for Collins.
The Polymarket odds now have the Democrat with a 64% chance of winning; I think that’s too high but reflects the belief that Platner was the worst possible Democratic candidate to run against Collins. (NOTE: Polymarket sponsors my content. But I would use their markets anyway!)
Q: Should Platner have a say in who replaces him? It seems to me that it would placate his supporters.
