Friday Mailbag!

Here we go.

Happy Friday.

We made it.

And so did President Joe Biden who, as of this writing, remains the Democratic nominee. And even got a positive poll result this morning, with NPR-Marist showing him at 50% to Donald Trump’s 48%.

Can he hang on? Should Democrats want him to? And, with the Republican National Convention starting Monday, who is Trump going to pick for vice president?

Lots of questions! Let’s get to what is on your mind this week. (I am also answering even more questions in a livestream on my YouTube channel at 1 pm eastern today. Check it out!)

One quick note before I do that: The Friday mailbag is one of a handful of pieces each week that I put behind the paywall. So, if you are not a paid subscriber, you won’t be able to see all of it. Which means you should become a paid subscriber today! It’s $6 a month or $60 for the year.

Ok, let’s do this.

Q: I'm an incredibly concerned Democrat and desperately want them to replace Biden. Yesterday I did something I'd never done before, I called my senator ( Chris Murphy CT) and voiced my concerns to his admin. My question is, does this actually do anything?

Do politicians really listen on these vital matters if enough of their constituents call/text/e-mail?

A: Yes!

I mean, if it’s just one call or text or email or something then probably not. But if lots of people call and all voice the same basic sentiment? Then, yes.

Remember that politicians are, by nature, reactive creatures. Their job is to channel the sentiment of the people they represent. They are forever trying to gauge that sentiment and react accordingly.

So when their constituents take the time to reach out to them, it has an impact. Make your voice heard! That’s how democracy works!

Q: Do you think that Democratic politicians in Congress don't really fear a Trump presidency à la Jared Golden? If they really believed that Trump was an existential threat to democracy, wouldn't more of them publicly say that Biden needs to stand aside for another nominee who would have a better shot against Trump?

A: So much this.

Look. Do I think there are a whole bunch of Democrats who believe — deeply and truly — that Trump, if elected, would turn America into a fascist state? Absolutely.

But, if the party really believed that would they be so reticent to jettison Biden after that debate? I mean, we can argue if he can still beat Trump — I think it’s possible — but it’s hard for me to buy that he is the best candidate to do so at this point.

I just think the Biden debate collapse shows that some of the rhetoric coming out of Democrats was just that: Rhetoric. And that, ultimately, they don’t actually see Trump as a direct threat to democracy. Because if they did the efforts to get Biden out would be a LOT more aggressive.

Q: Your 30 minute 1:1 Zoom call instantly sold me on the subscription!!

My current question is around Biden’s legacy. I would guess that this is incredibly important to him. Do you know of anyone making the case that - if he insists on running against Trump and loses - he will be remembered for nothing else. All of his years of public service will be forgotten. It’s hard for me to believe that Biden would risk becoming the Jimmy Carter of the 21st Century…

A: Awesome! Yes, ANY paid subscriber gets a 30-minute, one-on-one Zoom with me a part of their subscription!

As for the Biden legacy question, I think you raise a really good point. Here’s what Biden is thinking: I am going to beat Trump. And I may well be the only Democrat who can do it. And that is going to cement my legacy.

No politician thinks that they are going to lose. If you did, you wouldn’t run! But I do think that if Biden stays in the race — and nothing else changes — he is a clear underdog. And if he winds up losing because voters just couldn’t get comfortable with his age, well, then a) we knew that was a real possibility all along and b) it will be a major black mark on his legacy.

I also think there is something else legacy-related going on here: I don’t think Biden wants to end a five-decade career in public office by being ushered off the stage by his party. If he does go — and I don’t really know if he will — he will have to be convinced a) it’s his decision and b) he will look like a hero for saving the party and the country from Trump in 2020.

Q: If Biden decides (or already has decided) to drop out do you think he will strategically time it around the republican convention next week? For instance he could decide to do it on Monday to take away some coverage of the convention.