Friday mailbag!

Here we go.

Happy Friday!

We did it!

I am gearing up for the Democratic National Convention next week in Chicago — have a few fun surprises coming! —but let’s finish this week out strong.

I answered a ton of your questions below. If yours didn’t get answered, head on over to my live “Ask Me Anything” on my YouTube channel at 1 pm eastern where I will answer even more questions!

Before we get to it, a quick reminder: This is one of only a handful of posts every week that I put behind the paywall. It’s a chance for readers to ask me any question they like — and get, I hope, a satisfying response.

I think it’s well worth becoming a paid subscriber! Which you can do today for $6 a month or $60 for the year!

Alright, here we go!

Q: Let's say the election plays out similarly to 2020. Obviously, Trump won't concede and claim it was rigged but do you think Republicans will placate him like last time and humor his denialism or will they be quick to move on?

A: I have said before — and will say again here — that I believe Trump is the dominant figure within the Republican party until he dies.

Which means that even if he loses (and says he won) in November, he will remain as the party’s de facto leader.

This is odd, of course. Usually political parties are quick to move on from their presidential losers. They don’t want the stench of defeat lingering any longer than it has to.

But, the current GOP is less a political party than a cult of personality. It’s not really organized around a set of principles or policies. It’s organized around Trump. Whatever he says — even if it breaks with past Republican orthodoxy — goes.

So, he will say after the 2024 election that it was stolen from him and the only way to make the cheaters pay is to nominate him again in 2028. And, by and large, I think the Republican base will a) believe him and b) go along with it.

Q: There is so much interest in the debates, with both presidential and VP debates scheduled.

Are there still voters that are really undecided? We have been watching Trump for over 8 years. There are still people who don’t know how they feel about him and will decide their vote based on a debate?

A: Amazingly, yes.

There is a smallish subset of people who will likely vote in November but pay almost no attention to politics.

Like, they might hear about Biden dropping out. Or Harris emerging as the nominee. They might watch some social media clip of her speech at the convention. But they are simply not tuned into politics or the news in any serious way.

It’s remarkable for someone like me, who spends his whole life (or a lot of it), watching and thinking about this stuff, that those people exist. But they absolutely do.

Q: Chris, any thoughts on what happens to the state of the race if RFK Jr. drops out?

There was a fair bit of punditry weeks/months ago on whether he was hurting Trump more or Biden more, but of course that's ancient history now, and I haven't seen much talk about where his remaining 3-4% might go if he drops out.

IMO this is a bit of a wildcard, but it seems like a reasonable guess that by this point Kamala has already picked up the majority of the voters that were anti-Biden but ok with a generic Dem, so what remains are either firmly anti-Dem and/or true RFK Jr. believers…and if I had to guess I'd think they break more towards Trump than Harris…and given the right race, this could put Trump back in the lead…kind of keeps me up at night.