Friday mailbag!

Let's goooooooooo!

Happy Friday. We made it.

If you missed my announcement yesterday, I launched a sports Substack called “The Replay” this week. I hope you check it out!

So, what was on your mind this week? Vice President Rubio? Vice President Gabbard? Donald Trump, cash poor? The rumors of a Joe Biden polling comeback?

We got lots of great questions — and I answered a bunch below. Also, I am also doing a livestream at 1 pm on my YouTube channel today where I will answer more questions. So check that out too!

Before I get to your questions, a reminder: In just 11 days, the price of this newsletter is going up. If you act now, you will get the LOWEST rate — $5 for a month, $50 for the year, $240 for founding membership — for as long as you are a subscriber.

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Q: I was having breakfast with my uncle last week, who happens to be a lifelong Republican, when our conversation turned to politics. We typically steer clear of politics, given the mixed party affiliations at the table, so I was surprised when he said he would have a hard time supporting Donald Trump in the upcoming elections. He bluntly stated, "He is just SO dumb!" His son, also a Republican, shared the sentiment. However, neither of them particularly favors Joe Biden either.

On the other hand, my fiancée and her sister, despite being Democrats, have their reservations about Joe Biden, feeling he's not progressive enough. That makes four people I know who, if asked, would express disapproval of Biden, yet might still find themselves voting for him. I wonder if this sentiment is reflected in polling data or if it's merely anecdotal. Is there evidence suggesting this is a broader trend? I'd love to hear your thoughts.

A: LOVE the anecdote!

And, yes, this is an actual group — that has been dubbed by the media as the “double haters.” As in, they hate (or at least don’t love) Biden and Trump.

Here’s POLITICO on them:

Double haters — voters who are unsatisfied with both Trump and Biden — make up roughly one-fifth of the electorate. Recent polls from the Marquette Law School, NYT-Siena College and Morning Consult all reported the same number: 19 percent. That’s a huge chunk in a race that’s likely to be tight. Demographically the group resembles the general electorate, although it leans slightly younger and more Hispanic; there are also an equal number of Democrats and Republicans.

In 2016, Trump won double haters over Hillary Clinton by 17 points. In 2020, double haters went for Biden over Trump by 15 points. Swing voting bloc!

There’s NO question that Democrats are banking on Biden winning the double haters again in 2024. The idea being that people may think Biden is too old or hasn’t done a great job but are definitely going to vote for him over Trump who, among other things, helped incite a riot when the election didn’t go his way.

The worry among Democrats is that these voters will stay home rather than come out to vote against Trump. (To be clear, double haters are almost always voting against a candidate rather than for one.)

But, yes, broadly speaking, if you are looking for a group that may well decide the election, you could do far worse than focusing on double haters.

Q: Trump is clearly ramping up the “rigged” election talk, and it will most certainly only increase. What, if anything, can happen—either before or on election day—to possibly stop what may now be the inevitable “hair on fire” speech at 10:00 pm on election nite if things don’t seem to be going DJT’s way?

A: Short answer: Nothing.

Longer answer: Not much.

I think you rightly assess the situation. If Trump is declared the loser of the 2024 election on November 5, he will absolutely insist it was rigged. He won’t concede. He will try to marshal his supporters to protest the election.

The only real comfort I take is that, unlike in the aftermath of 2020, Trump will not be president. He will not have the federal bureaucracy at his beck and call. Which makes a HUGE difference.

Yes, if he loses, Trump can (and will) make a huge stir. There could be protests. But his ability to overturn the electoral college with Vice President Kamala Harris counting the votes is zero.

Q: What's your take on today's news that Marco Rubio is being considered as Trump's running mate?

A: Hilarious but also deeply fitting. I made a video about it!