Friday mailbag!

It's question time.

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Alright let’s get to your questions!

Q: Happy Birthday Chris!

Long-Term where do you see our current two-party system headed? It’s clear that the influence in both the GOP and Democratic Party are shifting further to the extremes. Is there a world in the the mid-term to long-term future in which the middle can carve out a niche for itself? Is there a point where social liberals/fiscal conservatives (or vice-versa) can actually vote for a candidate that shares their moderate views? Or is that a pipe dream even as the two parties grow more and more extreme?

A: Yes, I turned 47 on Monday. It’s been a hell of a year. I wrote about it here.

As for your question — it’s a good one. There’s no question that there are plenty of people who feel like the two parties have abandoned them. This chart on party identification from Gallup tells that story pretty convincingly:

When you see data like that, it seems like the easiest thing in the world for a centrist/solutions-oriented party to emerge — and to win!

The reality though is more complex. First of all, the two parties are deeply entrenched in American culture. While lots of people tell a pollster they are independents, when it comes down to it — in, say, a presidential election — they wind up retreating to one of the two parties.

Second, the idea of a centrist third party sounds great in theory. But in practice that party would have to have a set of policy proposals. And, inevitably, what one independent voter thinks should be the centerpiece of an independent party isn’t the same thing that another independent voter thinks it should be. And that’s even before we start talking about who that party should nominate for office.

Add it up and I am skeptical that there is space for a viable third party in this country — despite the numbers above.

Q: If Biden decides not to run, do you believe Govs. Pritzker (IL) and/or Murphy (NJ) can create practical paths to the nomination, and might either be a strong contender in Nov. 2024?

A: So, if Biden takes a pass on 2024 (increasingly less likely), I think the top tier would be Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and maybe Gavin Newsom. I DO think that Pritzker and Murphy would look hard at the race and could be intriguing but they would definitely start behind those other three names I mentioned.

Of course, even if Biden does run in 2024, the Democratic nomination will definitely be open in 2028 and I think a bunch of those people I mentioned above will run.

Q: How come senators like Tester and Manchin manage to win races in Republican strongholds? Do they get votes because people like continuity in Congress or because people think they'll have a larger influence as Democrats?

A: It’s a really interesting question.

We regularly see this happen in governors race — Massachusetts had a Republican governor, Kansas has a Democratic one — because the job is less about partisanship and more about who can get stuff done for the state.

But, in federal elections — especially in the last decade — it’s been increasingly difficult for a Senator to win a state that was carried by the other party’s presidential candidate. In 2022, for example, 34 of the 35 Senate races went the way the party voted in the most recent presidential election. (The exception was Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.)

So, how do the likes of Manchin and Tester (and Sherrod Brown in Ohio) do it? A combination of factors.

First and most importantly, they have a brand in the state that is separate from the national party. Manchin was governor before he was a senator. Brown has been around Ohio state politics for decades. Tester’s flat top and farming background distinguish him from the national leadership of his party.

Then, there’s a bit of luck — in both opponent quality and in the national political environment. All three of those men have, in the past, faced flawed opponents and run in good years.

But, it’s not just luck — as they’ve all won in less positive political environments too. And that’s because they are good candidates who run good campaigns. Never underestimate that factor.

Q: Chris, thanks for the weekly Q and A. It’s always interesting. Question regarding your upcoming book. Which presidential sports fact did you find most interesting or surprising?

A: Thanks for the chance to plug the book! If you don’t know about it, it’s called “Power Players: Sports, Politics and the American Presidency.” It’s officially out April 18 but you can preorder here or here!

The idea behind the book is to look at what the sports our presidents played and loved can tell us about who they were and how they governed. It’s been an incredibly fun project.

I think my favorite story from the book is how George H.W. Bush ran a super-competitive horseshoe league at the White House. He had a staffer who was in charge of maintaining the pits and making sure the brackets — yes, there were brackets — up to date. Bush, who was hyper-competitive, took it super seriously. He would often send the aid to go buy ice to keep the pits cool so the clay didn’t get too gummy!

Q: Given that Trump is/will go all out on DeSantis, do you think it would be best for him to sit this one out and wait until 2028? He would still be young (50) when the election takes place, if Trump wins, he wouldn't need to worry about him running again for President. If Biden wins, the country would probably be ready for a "change" and elect a Republican. I know there are a lot of other candidates in the GOP (Hawley, Cotton and Cruz) who would run in 2028, but DeSantis would be the early favorite.

A: Here’s the thing: Politics is ALL about momentum. And DeSantis has a ton of it right now.

Might he be able to parlay his second four years as governor of Florida — his term is up in 2026 — into a launching pad for a 2028 bid? Sure. But, that’s an “if.”

Right now what he and his team know for sure is that they are in a two-way race with Trump — and with all the buzz behind him. Yes, Trump in a Republican primary is a formidable foe — and the prospect of running against him is no fun.

But, DeSantis is clearly having a moment right now. And politics is all about taking advantage of those moments because you never know if they will come again.

Q: It's early but if the election were next week who do you think would win: Joe Biden or Ron DeSantis?

A: I think DeSantis would win. Biden has one great weakness that is very difficult for him to change: He is old and people are worried about his capacity to keep doing the job.

DeSantis, who is only 44, drives that contrast with Biden in a way that is decidedly advantageous to Republicans. (It likely won’t surprise you that I think DeSantis is a far stronger nominee for Republicans than Trump.)

Now, the election isn’t next week. DeSantis still has to run the gauntlet of the Republican primary process and survive what will be a full-scale onslaught by Trump. And, Biden has better than a year to work on convincing voters that although he is old, he is still more than able to execute the duties of being president.

Q: Hi Chris! I miss your work on CNN, but am happy to have found your new Substack. I am the Student Publications Adviser for a Community College in the Chicago area. What advice would you give to collegiate journalism students about print vs. digital media?

A: Hey, thanks!

My advice is simple: Get good at as many parts of journalism as you can. Don’t limit yourself by thinking of yourself as a print reporter or a digital reporter. Or as a TV person. The future of journalism is people who can work in all sorts of mediums, not just one.

More generally, I DO think that digital journalism is where this is all headed. The phone is the preferred medium for the consumption of news (and everything else) and I don’t see that reversing any time soon. I also think linear TV is where print newspaper were 15-20 years ago; the business model is of fading effectiveness but no one is quite sure when the ability to make money off of content will tilt toward the digital end of the business.

Q: Do you think that realistically the filibuster will still be here in 5-10 years from now?

A: As soon as the Senate changes its rules to eliminate the filibuster on judicial nominees, I think we started a countdown clock for the complete end of the filibuster.

I don’t know exactly the timeline — 5 years? 10 years? 1 year? — but I do know that once Pandora’s box is open, you can’t just close it.

Q: Nikki Haley's campaign has been a disaster right? From her refusal to go after Trump to alienating seniors (who vote!), I don't see how she thinks this has been a good idea. Interesting to hear your take.

A: Opinions differ! I actually thought the first week of her campaign was pretty effective!

She got a bit lucky with Don Lemon’s controversy over her proposal to have mental fitness test for politicians over 75 — which helped her stay in the news cycle (and score points with the Republican base) for much longer than she would have otherwise.

But, aside from that bit of luck, I thought Haley stayed on message — it’s time to move the Republican party forward and the way you do that is by electing new leaders — pretty well. I was also impressed with the crowds she drew in New Hampshire and Iowa.

I still think the race is a two-way contest between Trump and DeSantis. But Haley is clearly positioned — along with South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott — to pick up the pieces if one of the frontrunners implodes.

Q: Do you think Trump would support someone else as the GOP nominee if he was promised a pardon? Or would his ego not allow it?

A: I have a VERY hard time imagining Trump simply bowing out of the 2024 race. (I wrote about that here.)

He has never in his life admitted defeat or failure. Hell, he protested the 2016 presidential race — and he won that one!

I guess the possibility of as blanket pardon might be something of an enticement for Trump. But, even if the Republican nominee promised that (which I think would be a political death wish) it’s not the same thing as actually pardoning Trump. That person would have to beat Biden before they made good on that pledge.

I don’t see it. And, honestly, I just don’t know how Trump leaves the 2024 race if he is not the nominee. I can’t envision it.

Q: I don't understand why Mike Pence thinks he could be elected President. Democrats wont support him because of his connection to Trump and MAGA Republicans wont support him because they blame him for Trump not getting his second term. Is Pence delusional or does he actually have a shot? What group do you see supporting him, if any. Love your Substack! Keep it up. Thank you.

A: Thank you!

I think for Pence it’s less a matter of seeing a clear path to winning than understanding that if he doesn’t run this time, he likely will never run.

If Pence waited until, say 2028, he would be almost a decade removed from the vice presidency — and elected office more generally. Which is too long.

For Pence, it’s sort of a now or never proposition. But, I agree with you: I don’t see how the hell he winds up as the party’s nominee, much less as president. The problem for Pence in a Republican primary is that he isn’t Trump-y enough for the hardcore GOP base and not anti-Trump-y enough for the establishment types looking to move on from the former president.

And that’s a very bad place to be politically.

Q: Love the column and have loved your work for years. I will pony up for paid soon, I promise! Question: Trump is obviously afraid of DeSantis and is clearly testing nickname material, but he has moved on from DeSanctimonious because there's no way he knows what sanctimonious means, right? Right?

A: I am not sure he has moved away from “DeSanctimonious” although, since I can never even spell it right, I do think it’s a bit complicated to work as a great nickname.

I think your broader point is true too. I DO think Trump is worried about DeSantis and is not capable of hiding it. (I wrote about that here.). And I think Trump is unwittingly elevating DeSantis with all of these attacks. To the casual Republican observer, this looks like a two-man race — which is the opposite of the message that Trump wants to send.