Friday mailbag!

Let's answer some questions.

Every Friday, I take your questions on, well, anything. So let’s get to it!

Q: I’m an active Democrat volunteer in Virginia. We made great progress after 2016, much of that due to grassroots work. Florida Democrats seem to waiting for the national or state party organizations to turn things around. Wouldn’t they do better by organizing at the grassroots level?

A: I am not sure what ails the Florida Democratic party at the moment. It wasn’t so long ago that the state was considered one of the swingiest in the country. Remember that Ron DeSantis only won by 33,000 votes out of more than 8 million cast — and that was in 2018!

I do think DeSantis deserves some credit for turning the state redder as he and his organization have worked very hard at it. I also think it was a HUGE mistake for Democrats to nominate former Republican — and retread — Charlie Crist as their nominee for governor in 2022, He was a decidedly uninspiring choice — and got walloped.

Q: It has been reported that GOP donors are waiting on candidates, mostly likely DeSantis, to start putting money into the campaign against Trump. If that’s the case then why are these donors not talking to other candidates like Haley, Pence, Pompeo and others sit this one out? It seems like the GOP donors are setting themselves up for what failed them in 2015-2016.

A: I totally agree. Remember that in 2016 the way Trump won was with a deeply divided field. He had his 30-35% of the vote in every primary and caucus and all the rest of the candidate divvied up the rest. They could never decide who was actually the most viable person to wrangle the anti-Trump vote in the party (of which there was plenty!)

Let’s see how many people ultimately get into the race. I think Trump, DeSantis, Haley and Pence are sure things. Beyond that it gets a little murkier.

I also think that as important as how many non-Trump candidates run is when they decide to get out of the race if it’s clear their campaigns aren’t going anywhere. The sooner they can unify behind a non-Trump candidate — likely DeSantis at this point — the better their chances are.

Q: Hey Chris!

As a Long Islander living in the 3rd NY District, I’m interested to hear your gut feeling regarding how everything shakes out with NBA Hall-Of-Famer / Titanic Survivor / Astronaut / Former FBI Agent George Santos

In all seriousness, do you think he eventually ends up resigning? Does GOP leadership pressure him to leave despite a resulting special election where the seat could easily shift back to Dems? I know House Dems recently introduced a motion to expel him but fat chance House R’s support that. Seems doubtful that Republican Leadership will push him out.

A: The $25,000 question! (Also, this question made me chuckle.) So, I don’t think there is anyway Santos resigns. I think — as I wrote — that he is loving every minute of being such a big national story, with reporters chasing him around and hanging on his every word.

And I think the only way Republicans move to expel him is if he is convicted of a crime, which will take a while just due to the various ongoing investigations.

My best guess is that we are stuck with Santos until 2024 when he will inevitably either a) retire or b) get walloped in a GOP primary.

Q: Are you sure about ditching the SOTU? Even if gets ugly sometimes (see MTG), isn’t there some value in tradition?

A: There is value in tradition. Absolutely. I just feel like the speech has outlived its usefulness. It was once a way to make major statements about where the country is and where it was going. (“The era of big government is over,” Bill Clinton declared in his 1996 SOTU.) It’s no longer that — or anything close. To deliver a 80 minute stump speech (as Biden did on Tuesday) is his right. My point is that the media doesn’t have to cover it like the speech is somehow revelatory or terribly important. It isn’t.

For more on my case against SOTU, read this.

Q: Why do you think Mitch McConnell is content with his legacy being the person who blocks proposals and who doesn't have many actual legislative ideas? Rick Scott's ideas are certainly not something to desire but why does McConnell not come up with anything?

A: I think McConnell has always been motivated by a very simple and clear goal: Winning. And he believes very strongly that with Democrats in the White House and in charge of Congress — as they were the last 2 years — the best way to win is to give the other side enough rope to hang itself.

McConnell has long insisted that there is no expectation from the public that the minority party offer up a full governing vision. McConnell thinks you only need to be the alternate party, showing that your are credible enough to take power.

It’s why he was — and is — so adamantly opposed to Rick Scott’s plan, which, among other things would sunset every federal program including Medicare and Social Security after 5 years. To McConnell’s mind, no one was clamoring for a plan like that from Republicans and all it did was give Democrats something to shoot at. And I agree with him.

Q: Why do you think Rick Scott is sticking to his guns when it comes to his sunsetting proposal? Surely he realizes it's not possible, why does he think voters want that?

A: I think Scott is a) stubborn and b) convinced that he knows best. In his mind, the way that you show people you are ready to govern is roll out a series of proposals of what you would do if you were given power. He wants people to know he has a vision, that he’s not just about opposing whatever Democrats do.

Inextricably tied to that is the fact that Scott has national ambitions. He envisions himself as a presidential candidate one day. He might not run in 2024 — he has pledged to run for reelection — but I would be stunned if her didn’t run at some point in the future.

He views his proposals as part and parcel of that bid — setting him up as a truth-teller who is willing to have hard conversations with the American public.

Q: If Trump is to be the GOP nominee then Biden should be no question the Democratic candidate as the dynamics of such a race are proven. If the GOP nominee is other than Trump then a candidate other than Biden could be necessary to win?

A: I do think this question gets at a fundamental reality of the 2024 race. As soon as it was clear that Donald Trump was running again in 2024, the Democratic party apparatus seemed to coalesce more strongly around Joe Biden.

I am not sure if Trump is the only candidate Biden can beat — and vice versa — but I do think Democrats feel very good about a matchup between the two men.

To me, any race where Trump isn’t the Republican nominee but Biden is the Democratic nominee is less of a good thing for Democrats. Biden’s biggest issue — by a long shot — is his age (he’s 80). If Republicans nominate someone like DeSantis (he’s 44) or Nikki Haley (51), I do think the general election would come down to a generational choice. And I am not sure Biden wins that one.

Q: Does Donald Trump really believe all the things he says about the 2020 election? Do the other Election Deniers?

A: I genuinely think he does. I think Trump has, forever, told himself a version of his life that he has convinced himself is true. It doesn’t matter that his version of his life doesn’t comport with objective facts. He lives within a self-affirming bubble that allows him to live in this fantasy world. The election denialism is just the latest example of this “reality.”

Q: Until when does Joe Biden need to make up his mind about 2024? Would he be able to delay the decision until later than September 2023?

A: I mean, assuming the Democratic party is doing the legwork to ensure he is on the ballot in all of the critical early states, he could wait until the fall, for sure.

There doesn’t appear to be any chance of a serious primary challenge against him — sorry Marianne Williamson! —and, as the incumbent president, he shouldn’t have any issues with name ID or raising money.

My guess, however, is that Biden won’t wait that long. Incumbent presidents — Trump aside — typically announce their reelection bids in the spring of the year before the race, which would mean that Biden would get into the 2024 race sometime over the next few months.

Q: Chris, how come Democrats have not "messaged" like Biden did last night? They have a populist story to tell, why haven't they been telling it? Is it the bias reporting of the media that think that messaging is boring or isn't a "hot button" issue like Critical Race Theory or Transgender Athletes that draw eyes to advertising!?

A: Well, I don’t think it’s the media’s fault. (This will probably not surprise you.) There’s no question — just watch Sarah Sanders’ SOTU response speech — that cultural issues like the ones you mention are are animating to the Republican base.

And, they can also be motivating to the Democratic base too. Lots of smart people credit Democrats better-than-expected showing in the 2022 midterms to the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, for example.

That said, I DO think that Biden is most comfortable as a populist — what with all the Scranton Joe and blue-collar roots he highlights. I think Biden is also at his best in that mode — which is why I thought his speech on Tuesday was so effective.

Q: What are your favorite movies / must see movies?

A: My favorite movie ever is “Annie Hall” — especially the Marshall McLuhan scene.

In terms of political movies, I made a list when I was back at WaPo. I think it still holds up. It’s here.

Q: What advice would you give a writer who is almost finished with her first novel? Look for an agent or go it alone? Query publishers or self-publish? Best way to market if self-publishing? Anything else? Genre is YA Fantasy.

A: I have now written two books — the 2nd one comes out in April! — and both times I went through an established publishing house. For me, that was the right move because I needed an editor, a marketing department and the like to help me shape the book and make sure people knew about it.

I also do know, however, that self-publishing has become much more of a thing over the past decade-plus. I just don’t know all that much about that route. Sorry!

Q: Lace,

Georgetown Basketball

I'll hang up and listen...

A: Anyone. But. Ewing.

Q: Favorite flavor ice cream (cookies and cream is the only acceptable answer)

A: Scoop of chocolate, scoop of vanilla…don’t waste my time.