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I call balls and strikes ⚾ — because politics needs referees, not cheerleaders.
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Happy Friday.
We made it.
In truth, I barely made it. After a 3 am bedtime on Wednesday morning, I dragged myself through the rest of the week — telling anyone who would listen why we should move primaries to Thursday so I only have one more day of the week to work after late race calls!
When I run for president that will be 50% of my platform. The other 50%? Anyone who gets into the elevator before you can get out of it gets thrown in jail. No trial.
As always, these are real questions from real paid subscribers to this newsletter.
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Q: Hi, Chris. I asked about polling last week and I’ll ask about again. What went wrong in Wisconsin? Should we trust the polls in the midterms after MI & Wisconsin? What must the polling industry do to improve after the last two weeks?
Q: The polls have proven vastly incorrect in both MI and WI. Why should there be any confidence in the November polling in light if this?
A: I will say what I ALWAYS SAY about polls: They are equal parts art and science.
I feel like people still don’t grasp that. They see two numbers — like 48-41 or something — and assume that’s it, that’s the race.
But polling is art too! Especially when trying to construct the model on which your voting sample is based. Pollsters try to figure out what the electorate will look like — based on past voting history etc. — and then construct a sample to reflect that.
Which means that if you don’t correctly gauge what the electorate is going to look like in an election, the poll can be WAY off. It’s not out of any sort of malicious intent from pollsters. I think they are doing their best! This stuff isn’t easy!
And it’s made more difficult when you are trying to poll a primary (by nature a lower turnout affair) in a state without party registration — which is the case in both Michigan and Wisconsin.
In both states, the polls clearly under-indexed black voters. And black voters, in both states, voted for the more establishment candidates: Haley Stevens and David Crowley.
One other thing: There is more shitty polling out there now than ever before. People are obsessed with numbers. They don’t know (or really care) whether the pollster has a track record or uses the right methodology.
And so, the penalty for putting out bad numbers — even to simply move the polling averages or change the narrative — is very small. So, unfortunately, people do it.
Which tarnishes everyone in the industry.
For a VERY smart breakdown of the Wisconsin polling miss, read this piece G. Elliott Morris:
Q: As a reporter, what are your thoughts about the Air Force One shuffle? Was it an acceptable deception or did the White House cross a line by using WH staffers and reporters to support the deception that Trump was on AF One? And any word about how people like Stephen Miller and others from the administration who were on the decoy plane have reacted?
